Analytics Recap: Kansas City Chiefs Defeat Miami Dolphins 33-27
The Kansas City Chiefs jumped to 12-1 after escaping a close one in Miami against the Dolphins, winning the game 33-27. Patrick Mahomes had an up-and-down game, making many great plays throughout the game but having his stat line ruined by three interceptions.
With the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to the Buffalo Bills later on Sunday, the Chiefs are now in position for the AFC's No. 1 seed, even if they lose to the New Orleans Saints this coming Sunday or the Atlanta Falcons the following Sunday. The Chiefs' next game will be against the Saints in the Superdome with potentially the return of quarterback Drew Brees, though that is all up in the air. If Brees is unable to play, the Chiefs will likely get to see Taysom Hill with Jameis Winston as his backup.
Here are the advanced numbers from the Chiefs' win over the Dolphins and the season so far from Ben Baldwin's rbsdm.com.
EPA = Expected Points Added, SR = Success Rate, 1st% = First Down Rate
The Chiefs' offense was quite poor, especially on early downs with both the passes and runs. Thankfully, the late-down offense was huge with 10 of the 12 plays being passes. For the Dolphins, their late-down offense was poor while their early-down passing was solid, adding five expected points, an amazing amount for early downs.
It was another huge day for Travis Kelce, who had 5.6 EPA and a 70% success rate on 10 targets, and Tyreek Hill, who had 5.1 EPA and a 50% success rate on eight touches. It was also a good day for the third option, Sammy Watkins, who had 3.3 EPA and a 67% success rate on just three targets. For the Dolphins, Mike Gesicki was the one dominant option for Miami, with a 6.6 EPA and 57% success rate across seven targets. Everyone else on the Dolphins, besides Tua Tagovailoa, failed to exceed 2.0 EPA.
CPOE = Completion Percentage Over Expectation (Completion Percentage minus Expected Completion Percentage), QBR = ESPN's Quarterback Rating metric
Patrick Mahomes has obviously had much better performances than this one, but it's also not his worst one either. The three interceptions were rough, but outside of those three picks, which took 17.7 EPA away from his total, he had 25.5 EPA, a very high total. The good-looking number for Mahomes is his CPOE, which reached 6.1 with his 70.6% completion percentage. For the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa added 4.8 EPA over a huge 63 play sample size.
Three of the four most-impactful plays of the game were Patrick Mahomes' three interceptions, while the other one was Mecole Hardman's punt return touchdown. The fifth- and sixth-most impactful were a pair of Tyreek Hill touchdowns, while the eighth and 10th were 20+ yard passes to Hill and Travis Kelce. Only one of the top 10 plays of the game came with the Dolphins' offense on the field, a Tua Tagovailoa 29-yard touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki.
The win probability for this game was quite interesting. The Chiefs started out with a 75.5% win probability and, after a rough first quarter, the Dolphins actually had a win probability advantage in some early parts of the second quarter. It didn't last for too long though, as the Chiefs had an 80.5% win probability at halftime and a 98.3% win probability within the first three minutes of the second half. It dropped just below 90% again in the final few minutes of the fourth quarter before going back up as the game came to a close.
For the team tiers, the Chiefs remain the best team in the NFL and the Packers are just behind them. The Steelers and Bills are pretty close to each other for third and fourth, with the Browns and the Saints, the Chiefs' next opponent, coming in fifth and sixth.
The Chiefs have now jumped into second in early-down passing rate, finally passing the Seattle Seahawks and now only trailing the Houston Texans. The Chiefs threw on 68% of early downs this week, while the Seahawks threw on just 50% of early downs. This brings the Chiefs to a 62.1% early-down pass rate on the season, while the Texans stand at 62.7%.
Finally, we have quarterback rankings by EPA and CPOE. Aaron Rodgers has gotten some separation from Mahomes for first in the EPA+CPOE composite score rankings, but Mahomes is still quite close to him in that race. Third, fourth and fifth in EPA+CPOE composite score are some other top AFC quarterbacks likely to make the playoffs with Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns and Ryan Tannehill of the Tennessee Titans. Neither are anywhere near Rodgers and Mahomes though.
For more Kansas City Chiefs analytics and analysis, follow @SIChiefs and @WichitaChiefSam on Twitter.
