Analytics Recap: Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
The Kansas City Chiefs moved to 4-0 after defeating a weakened New England Patriots team by a score of 26-10 on Monday night. The Patriots were without quarterback Cam Newton, forcing them to play Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham instead. The Chiefs had a rough first half, leading just 6-3 at halftime, but they picked it up in the second half with touchdowns for the two speedsters, Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman.
Here are the advanced numbers for the game and the season on Ben Baldwin's stats website, rbsdm.com, and Football Outsiders.
EPA = Expected Points Added, SR = Success Rate, 1st% = First Down Rate
This game could not have gone much better for the Chiefs' pass defense. The -15.4 EPA for the Patriots' two quarterbacks, Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham, was among the lowest you'll ever see in a single game. This was mostly thanks to the top four plays of the game coming from the Chiefs' defense, with three interceptions and the strip-sack by Taco Charlton.
CPOE = Completion Percentage Over Expectation (Completion Percentage minus Expected Completion Percentage), QBR = ESPN's Quarterback Rating metric
Patrick Mahomes had a slow day, but still got a respectable 12.0 EPA. His performance was clearly worse than that though, with 4.1 EPA of touchdowns on the jet sweep toss action and lots of EPA saved thanks to interceptions and fumbles that were dropped or ruled dead early. This gave Mahomes a 44.9 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, the second-lowest of his career. Mahomes should turn it around next week, however, as the Raiders are PFF's 31st-ranked defense with a 31st ranking in both tackling and coverage.
Tyreek Hill was the best offensive player for the Chiefs for these numbers, getting 0.88 EPA per play to go and 74.3 PFF grade with his 64 yards and one touchdown.
In terms of league-wide metrics, the Chiefs are currently a top-four team in the NFL when looking at Offensive and Defensive EPA, alongside the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers and now the Cleveland Browns after their demolition of the Dallas Cowboys' defense. They also dropped from first to second in early-down passing frequency behind the Seattle Seahawks, a battle which seems like it will continue for the rest of the year.
Lastly, we have the Football Outsiders numbers, notably Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). DVOA in Weeks 1-3 is not adjusted for strength of opponent, but it does start adjusting for that in Week 4 with the opponent adjustments at 40% and rising until it hits 100% in Week 10. The Chiefs are second in Overall DVOA, fourth in Offensive DVOA, and fifth in Defensive DVOA. It's remarkable to see the results look this good for the Chiefs when many fans remain unimpressed with how the season has started, and it is a great sign for things to come.
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