Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios for the Chiefs' Offense
It is the season of boundless optimism.
As teams move through training camp, the preseason hype pieces about young players, stories about players being in the "best shape of their life" and general good feelings permutate the NFL. All 32 fan bases are ripe with high expectations and hype for players all over their respective team's roster.
The Kansas City Chiefs are no different.
However, as a personal belief, I believe every yin should have a yang. Every piece of optimism should have some pessimism to ground the hype in reality.
Let's apply this principle to each position group on the Chiefs' offense and break down the varying storylines going into the season and how things could look in a best-case and worst-case scenario.
Quarterbacks
It is pretty easy to be optimistic about your respective team's quarterback play when Patrick Mahomes is at the helm. All Mahomes has done in his first three years as a starter is shatter record after record, and he's looked good doing it. The Chiefs will have the best quarterback in the NFL for the next decade and no amount of glowing superlatives are too much hype for Mahomes.
One small but somewhat notable pessimistic storyline surrounding the Chiefs' quarterback room the last few years has been their inability to find a diamond-in-the-rough young quarterback to develop behind Mahomes. Chad Henne, and sometimes Matt Moore, have done well as Mahomes's backup, but many young quarterbacks have rotated through the "experimental quarterback" role on the Chiefs' roster the past few years. It is possible one of this year's training camp quarterbacks — Shane Buechele or Anthony Gordon — are the exception, but time will tell.
Running backs
One player with a lot of optimism about their season this year is second-year back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He's coming off a solid but slightly disappointing rookie year that saw the latter part of his season derailed by injuries. Edwards-Helaire is healthy now, has had a normal (non-Covid-shortened) offseason, is running behind an improved offensive line, and should be a focal point of the Chiefs' offense. Will that optimism bear fruit? Edwards-Helaire is probably as good of a bet as any on the Chiefs' offense to improve on their year last year. Jerick McKinnon is also an honorable mention as the veteran has impressed in training camp and in the Chiefs' first preseason game on offense and special teams.
Overall there is very little to be pessimistic about when it comes to the running back room for the Chiefs. One specific player seems to be on the outs though, and that is Darwin Thompson. Thompson has had troubles with consistency in his two years with the Chiefs and with McKinnon and Darrel Williams both playing well in training camp and the first preseason game, Thompson's roster spot might be in jeopardy. It is hard to believe the Chiefs carry four running backs on the active roster.
Wide receivers
A player who has received a large number of optimistic reports about them this offseason has been Mecole Hardman. While his first preseason game was not the best, it still is notable that the Chiefs have been happy with how Hardman has looked this offseason. Hardman was a cornerback-to-wide receiver convert in college, is still under 24 years old, and was a player whose development was hampered by a Covid-afflicted offseason last year. It is a make-or-break season for Hardman, but there are reasons to be hopeful.
While Hardman's development so far has given a reason to be optimistic about him this season, the group overall does not give enough reasons to be excited. Due to this, it is easy to be pessimistic overall about the group. What if Hardman does not take that next step? If so, and there are no surprise standouts, then it will be Tyreek Hill and some passable receivers. Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle are probably not going to move the needle much. A lot hinges on the development of Hardman.
Tight end
No position group on the Chiefs' roster has more boundless optimism surrounding it right now than the tight end position. Even excluding the best tight end in football in Travis Kelce, there have been two tight ends that have a heavy dose of optimism around them this offseason: Noah Gray and Jody Fortson. Gray has earned nothing but glowing remarks from the coaching staff after the Chiefs traded up for him in the 2021 draft. Fortson switched to the tight end position after just missing the 53-man roster last year. Fortson bulked up, learned the position over the last year and has received glowing reviews about his position shift throughout training camp. The Chiefs' tight end room, for the first time in years, might have quality depth... and maybe more.
There are very few reasons to be pessimistic about the tight end group. Blake Bell provides a veteran presence behind Travis Kelce while Gray and Fortson provide high-upside options. Only a few questions remain about the group. One such question is if the tight ends behind Kelce will be able to replace a significant amount of Kelce's production if he is injured at some point this year. If they cannot, no amount of depth will be able to fill the void left by Kelce. Along with questions about injuries, will the Chiefs even roster four tight ends? If they do not, they will lose out on one of Gray, Fortson, or Bell. The tight end group itself seems great, but questions do remain.
Offensive Line
The massive overhaul of the offensive line has turned early offseason pessimism about the group into optimism. No players are more pivotal to this turnaround in perception than the two sure-fire rookies on the offensive line, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. The pair of rookie offensive linemen have received positively glowing reports out of camp. Humphrey was given the first-team reps at center and has never surrendered them. Smith quickly earned the favor of the coaching staff and was given the first-team snaps at right guard when Kyle Long was injured. Neither have relinquished their spots and are on track to start Week 1. What a turnaround from a year ago. These two embody what the Chiefs have done along the offensive line this offseason: became younger and stronger.
If there is one reason to have some pessimism creeping in about the offensive line it is worrying a bit about the current starting tackles for the team, Orlando Brown Jr. and Lucas Niang. The concern should not be panic, but it is notable that both have looked a bit shaky so far in training camp. Niang, especially, seems to have reps where he is experiencing rookie growing pains. For both, this is definitely a time of learning and adapting as both players have not experienced a Chiefs training camp before. Brown is also trying to adapt to a wildly different system than the one he ran in Baltimore. With tackles being vitally important in the Chiefs' passing offense protecting Mahomes, it is imperative the Chiefs' tackles at least be passable. The jury is out on whether both tackles will be at this point.
A lot of the offseason optimism about players on the Chiefs roster is warranted. It makes sense to look forward to how Edwards-Helaire can play in his second season behind a new offensive line. Barring injuries, it is a situation that should almost always see improvement.
The rookie class on offense receiving glowing reviews is also a welcome storyline. If these players were not impressive in training camp, there would likely be no buzz about them at all, and with whelming draft classes in recent years, it is encouraging to see a rookie class create so much buzz right off the bat. Humphrey, Smith and Gray look to have significant roles their first year if the optimism and hype pay off.
However, this is the time of year where pessimism does not pass. No games have been played. There is no reason to believe the worst can happen — because nothing has happened! Only time will tell what offseason storylines for the Chiefs' offense bear fruit and which do not.
