The Kansas City Chiefs vs. the AFC West (Part 1)
With COVID-19 having robbed the world of actual sports, every conversation about sports has taken on a hypothetical character. Asking “who’s going to win the NCAA Tournament this year?” now feels similar to those conversations you had with your friends at sleepovers growing up - you know, “Who would win in a fight, Darth Vader or the Incredible Hulk?” The answer is tantalizing because it is unknown and unknowable - Darth Vader will never fight the Incredible Hulk, and the NCAA tournament will not be played in 2020. There will be no definitive answers to these questions, and that makes for good debate - because no one can be right and no one can be wrong.
It is perhaps in this spirit that ProFootballTalk posed the following hypothetical over the weekend:
The Kansas City Chiefs will never play a combined team made up of the best players for the Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers. The winner of this matchup may be unknown and unknowable, but that isn’t going to stop us from thinking about it. In fact, since I saw this tweet, I haven’t been able to stop thinking about it. So here, I set out to know the unknown and unknowable. Let’s break this matchup down.
OFFENSE
We begin, of course, with the offense. Last season, the Chiefs’ offense — despite injuries to their quarterback, left tackle, interior offensive line, star wide receiver, and virtually every running back on the roster — scored the fifth-most points in the NFL, finishing comfortably ahead of Los Angeles (21st), Oakland (24th), and Denver (28th). According to Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA, an advanced metric that measures offensive efficiency, the Chiefs had the second-best offense in the NFL, while their division rivals finished 9th (Oakland), 12th (Los Angeles), and 26th (Denver).
But this isn’t about whether the Chiefs’ offense was better than any individual division rival. It’s about whether the Frankenstein’s monster of Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos - let’s call them the Los Dengas Charonders — could hold a candle to Patrick Mahomes’ crew. Let’s go through position-by-position.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes vs. Derek Carr (LV)
The Chiefs have the best quarterback in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers are currently planning to start Tyrod Taylor, last seen losing his job to Baker Mayfield in Cleveland. The Broncos have Drew Lock, a second-year player out of the University of Missouri, who may well establish himself as the second-best QB in the AFC West as early as this year, but for now remains unproven. The most logical choice to quarterback the AFC West team is Raiders QB Derek Carr.
We all know that Mahomes is a vastly better quarterback than Carr. But just how much better? Let’s look again at Football Outsiders’ DVOA; another metric called DYAR; ESPN’s QBR; and traditional football statistics. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) measure a quarterback’s total value and value per play, respectively. QBR is a metric created by ESPN based on a QB’s expected points added per play, adjusted to a number between 0 (the worst) and 100 (the best). To account for Mahomes’ injury-shortened 2019 season, we’ll use his numbers from 2018, and compare those to Carr’s 2019 season.
Derek Carr’s 2019 season was arguably the best of his six-year NFL career. He set career highs in completion percentage, QBR and passer rating, and finished with his second-highest marks in DVOA and DYAR. This was, by Derek Carr’s standards, a very, very good season.
It doesn’t come close to Mahomes’ 2018 season.
As you can see, Mahomes nearly doubled Carr’s DVOA and DYAR, and actually more than doubled his touchdown total. Mahomes was more explosive and more efficient than Carr, throwing for 8.8 yards per attempt to Carr’s 7.9 while taking a sack on just 4.3% of dropbacks, while Carr was sacked 5.4% of the time.
And lest you accuse me of cherry-picking, here’s Mahomes’ 2019 season:
Even in a season in which he dislocated his kneecap, missed two and a half games, and dealt with injuries and inconsistency all around him, Mahomes still significantly outperformed Carr.
EDGE: Chiefs
Offensive Tackles
Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz vs. Trent Brown (LV), Bryan Bulaga (LAC)
Tackle has been a big-time issue for the AFC West, outside of KC, where Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz form one of the more consistent tackle duos in the league. The Chargers can contribute newcomer Bryan Bulaga, a former long-time Green Bay Packer, while the Raiders have the monstrous 380-pound Trent Brown. Both are solid players (Brown earned a Pro Bowl selection in 2019), but tellingly, both play right tackle, and neither is as good there as Mitchell Schwartz.
EDGE: Chiefs
Interior Offensive Line
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Andrew Wylie, Austin Reiter vs. Trai Turner (LAC), Richie Incognito (LV), Rodney Hudson (LV)
If the goal of this contest were to see who could most successfully perform open heart surgery, the Chiefs’ group, with Doctor Duvernay-Tardif, might have a shot. Unfortunately, in football terms, this matchup is one-sided. The AFCW has five-time Pro Bowler Trai Turner, four-time Pro Bowler Richie Incognito, and three-time Pro Bowler and former Chief Rodney Hudson. This is a big advantage to the AFCW.
EDGE: AFCW
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson vs. Mike Williams (LAC), Keenan Allen (LAC), Tyrell Williams (LV), Courtland Sutton (DEN)
The Chiefs have the best wide receiver in the AFC West, the one and only Cheetah, Tyreek Hill. But unlike the quarterback position, where having the best player at the position automatically gives KC the edge, the AFC West’s depth at wide receiver matters. NFL teams put at least three WRs on the field 75% of the time in 2019, so we need to consider whether top-end talent or depth gets the nod here. Let’s look again at DVOA and DYAR, alongside traditional stats. I chose the last full season played by each WR (in the case of Sammy Watkins, who had significant injury issues in both 2019 and 2018, I chose 2018, in which he performed better despite missing more games).
The Chiefs’ top three of Hill, Watkins, and Hardman actually outproduced the AFC West’s top three of Allen, WIlliams, and Williams in DYAR 729 to 671. When you add a fourth WR to the comparison, however, the balance shifts to the AFC West, as Courtland Sutton’s 189 to 61 advantage over DeMarcus Robinson results in an 860 to 796 win for the West. While I mentioned above that NFL teams used 3+ WRs 75% of the time in 2019, they used four or five WRs just 5% of the time, so it seems fair to call this match in favor of the Chiefs, who have the superior top three.
EDGE: Chiefs
Tight End
Travis Kelce, Ricky Seals-Jones, Deon Yelder vs. Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Noah Fant
Here, as with WR, the Chiefs have the clear top dog (although Waller, at least in 2019, wasn’t as far behind Travis Kelce as you might think), while the AFC West has superior depth. We’ll be generous and give the AFC West a push here.
EDGE: Push
Running Back
Damien Williams, DeAndre Washington, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson vs. Austin Ekeler (LAC), Josh Jacobs (LV), Melvin Gordon (DEN)
Good thing running backs don’t matter, right?
EDGE: AFC West
Summary
The Chiefs have the edge at quarterback, tackle, and wide receiver; the AFC West at interior offensive line and running back; with tight end generously (for the AFC West) being called a draw. With interior offensive line and running back being comparatively less important position groups than quarterback, receiver, and tackle, the Chiefs’ offense is clearly superior to that of the Los Dengas Charonders.
EDGE: Chiefs
Click here for part two, as we take a look at the Chiefs' defense vs. the AFC West's best defenders and bring the final conclusion.
