All Travis Kelce does is rack up yards. And touchdowns. And first downs. And, now, Super Bowls. But let's talk about the yards first.
The Kansas City Chiefs tight end has at least 1,000 yards in each of his last four seasons, something no NFL tight end has ever accomplished. The over/under for Kelce's season sits at 1,125.5 on DraftKings, the exact number he went for in his first 1,000-yard season back in 2016.
Since racking up 1,125 yards in 2016 and 1,038 in 2017, Kelce has spent two seasons with Patrick Mahomes, clearing the over by a comfortable margin: 1,336 in 2018 and 1,229 in 2019. Kelce will have to share the ball with teammates Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and a stable of running backs now including Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but that was true last season as well.
While I'm bullish on Hardman's role increasing in 2020 and think Edwards-Helaire will take a decent number of passes for himself, going over on Kelce's yardage totals seems like an almost-too-obvious choice. As in all sports gambling, there's risk, and oddsmakers know what they're doing, but arguing against Kelce going for a grand-and-change with Mahomes in Andy Reid's offense seems foolish.
SI.com's Jamie Eisner lays out the pros and cons of both sides, but ultimately lands on the same side as I do: bet on Travis Kelce.
Kelce has surpassed the posted total each of the last two seasons and three of the last four at the peak of his career, but it's important to know that this is the peak. Kelce won't exceed his 2018 numbers in 2020. The question is whether his peak lasts another season. With Mahomes, I think it does.
The Play: OVER 1,125.5 yards (-110)