How Marquez Valdes-Scantling Can Rewrite His Career Story in Kansas City
It’s not every day that a wide receiver decides to leave an opportunity in which he plays with: (1) a future Hall of Fame quarterback, (2) a situation and scheme he’s familiar with, and (3) a team with the fifth-most vacated targets heading into the upcoming season. One three-year, $30 million contract later, though, such is life for new Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Fitting the theme of a few of the Chiefs’ current receivers, Valdes-Scantling profiles as a tantalizingly-talented pass-catcher seeking to find a modicum of game-to-game consistency under Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Ask anyone with a pulse on the Chiefs’ OTAs, and they’ll tell you that the 27-year-old has had the look of “the best receiver in the offseason program,” maximizing both his size and speed.
On almost a daily basis this offseason, one could expect to see a tweet describing either Mahomes and Valdes-Scantling’s burgeoning chemistry or a highlight catch of that afternoon. It’s almost second nature to assume that the Chiefs acquired him to atone for the loss of Tyreek Hill’s field-stretching speed and deep-threat ability.
In putting everything together, along with Andy Reid’s comments on him last month, one must wonder if there’s a level to his game that we haven’t consistently seen yet. As Reid noted:
He's a big kid, but he's got really good flexibility. He can change directions and he's got that speed, which we all knew he had. He's able to work some of the primary underneath routes that he maybe didn't do quite as much in Green Bay because of who they had there. I've been pleased with how he goes about his business. He's doing a nice job.
Elevation for Valdes-Scantling would mean that he’s used more in the intermediate areas and as a chain-mover. That in and of itself would change the spectrum of what the former Green Bay Packers wideout has been known for.
According to Player Profiler, Valdes-Scantling ran 271 routes, owning the No. 1 spot in aDOT (17.5) — or average depth of target. This means that, whether complete or incomplete, it was a safe bet that Aaron Rodgers targeted him from far away. And rightfully so; within that role, few were better.
In theory, this could be among the many ways in which Valdes-Scantling’s role looks a bit different as he transitions from Rodgers to Mahomes in 2022-23. If last season taught us anything, it’s that teams are learning their lesson when it comes to not blitzing Mahomes. Content to sit back in a zone and let them patiently work their way down the field, defenses will have no choice but to allow Valdes-Scantling and the Chiefs’ receivers to work underneath and showcase their yards-after-catch ability.
Last season, Valdes-Scantling ran 172 routes against man-to-man coverage compared to 91 against zone coverage. There’s potential, however, in that his win rate against zone coverage was nearly 10% better — 30.5 vs. 21.6 — compared to man-to-man. Even looking past the concerns about his route running not being as nuanced as it should be at 6-foot-4, there’s at least some upside for what he could become, despite calling 2021-22 the “worst year” of his life from a football standpoint.
The expectation is also that there should be more opportunity, and not just because he’s no longer lining up alongside a player like Davante Adams, whose 169 targets were second only to Cooper Kupp.
Ironically, the former Packers' speedster played in the slowest-paced offense in the NFL. And not only that, but the Chiefs’ offense provides more opportunity via extra pass plays.
Statistically, the opportunities will be there. The real question will come down to his consistency. In just the last two seasons, Valdes-Scantling has had 12 games of 50-plus receiving yards. On the other hand, he’s also had 12 games of under 20 yards. On that aforementioned $30M deal, the expectation figures to be that this Jekyll-and-Hyde-type production ceases as a member of the Chiefs.
Thinking more specifically about that contract, Valdes-Scantling’s deal — with incentives to watch for — makes him the NFL’s 37th-highest-paid wideout per Spotrac.
By definition, 32 teams have a WR1. For reference, here’s how the 37th-ranked wide receiver’s numbers looked in 2021-22 (excluding TEs and RBs):
- Targets — 95 (Adam Thielen)
- Receptions — 59 (Chase Claypool)
- Yards — 800 (Kendrick Bourne)
- Touchdowns — 5 (multiple players)
This isn’t to say a 95-target, 59-catch, 800-yard, five-touchdown season would justify the contract, but it just illustrates a baseline. With that aforementioned pass-heavy tendency in Kansas City, Mahomes has been able to help two — and sometimes three — receivers accumulate numbers similar to that.
Perhaps more importantly than that, Valdes-Scantling’s deal makes him the seventh-highest paid player on the team according to Spotrac. On a team with title aspirations, that will also ratchet expectations.
In the grand scheme of things, for everything that one can’t predict just yet about what Valdes-Scantling’s 2022-23 season will look like, there are a few guarantees given the way he plays. His ability to take the top off of a defense and command a secondary’s respect is going to open the door for everyone else. His absence — see how San Francisco defended Davante Adams without him in the lineup in the 2021 Divisional Round game — would prove just as costly.
Along the way, he can also be penciled in as a reliable run-blocker, a guaranteed SportsCenter highlight reel alongside Mahomes’s rocket arm and, perhaps, for genuinely the first time in his career... a legitimate threat from every blade of grass he stands on as a member of the Chiefs.
