Scouting the Opponent: Must-Know Facts About the Cardinals
From the moment he officially took the reins as the Kansas City Chiefs’ go-to guy, Patrick Mahomes made one message abundantly clear to the NFL: the month of September belongs to him.
Shuffle the deck and pick whichever statistic fits your argument. There’s his 41-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio; there’s the 84.6 win percentage; or, how about this? In the Mahomes era, the Chiefs have averaged an unearthly 36.3 points per game in Week 1.
The numbers praising Mahomes and Andy Reid-led offenses are infinite, but something will have to give when the scorching-hot Chiefs travel to the desert to do battle with Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, another team with a well-documented penchant for punching the rest of the NFL in the lip at the season’s outset.
Over the last two years, the two teams own a combined 27 wins over 36 games in the opening half of the season.
Expectations are that this could finally be the year Kansas City fields both an elite offense with the defensive cohesion to boot. If recent history suggests anything, one might want to look further down the schedule — Week 15 in Seattle, maybe? — for that cumulative lights-out performance.
Jokes aside, here are some thoughts and numbers to consider in evaluating the Chiefs’ Week 1 opponent.
How high can the Cardinals’ offense “jump” without D-Hop?
DeAndre Hopkins’s impact isn’t something that requires a ton of narration. To sum it up in a sentence or two: on the field, he ranks No. 1 in receptions (737), No. 2 in yards (9,779) and No. 4 in touchdowns (66) since 2014. Off the field, he’d become such an elite force that Arizona saw his lucrative contract and concluded that “Hey, this man deserves more money,” before giving him an extension that seismically shifted the entire wide receiver market in prompting an old money vs. new money debate.
In May, the Hall of Fame-caliber wideout was suspended for the first six games after testing positive for violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancing Drugs Policy, and it should come as no surprise in saying that Arizona will miss his presence dearly. To put some numbers to it, per Sharp Football Analysis:
With Hopkins:
— Pass-catchers averaged 6.4 yards per play
— Murray was blitzed on 23.9% of third downs
— A.J. Green’s catch rate was 69%
— Third down EPA +0.35
Without Hopkins:
— Pass-catchers averaged 4.9 yards per play
— Murray was blitzed on 45.7% of third downs
— A.J. Green’s catch rate was 45%
— Third down EPA -0.04
Point No. 2 felt like a must-add, given Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs’ inclination for creative, simulated pressures on third downs. Defenses simply didn’t seem to fear Arizona's attack as much without the five-time Pro Bowler in alignment. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown holds some name value as a feared wideout, with pre-baked chemistry with Murray from their Oklahoma days, though this feels like a plus-one for the Chiefs.
How could the Cardinals approach it? They did lead the NFL in four-receiver, 10 personnel usage for a third straight year under Kliff Kingsbury. They’ve also tried two-TE sets and there’s been talk of an expanded role for 5-foot-7 Rondale Moore, using his speed in manufactured touches, sweeps, and screens, à la Mecole Hardman.
As for how effective it’ll be without Hopkins? To coin a popular Mahomes phrase, let’s “see it when we believe it.”
The Chiefs’ wideouts could put the NFL on notice early
It’s become something of a running joke among Chiefs supporters, considering how scarcely Brett Veach and the front office had invested resources into the secondary.
On Sunday, they could get their chance to do some of the laughing in battling a Cardinals defense that ranked No. 28 in cornerback spending this offseason.
There’s considerable talent among this Arizona secondary outside of All-Pro safety Budda Baker, who figures to take the tall task of defending Travis Kelce, though not much of it is proven year-over-year.
In getting a pulse for the Cardinals’ situation, columnists seemed to tell a similar story: In a division with this many elite wideouts (i.e. Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Deebo Samuel), it’s a disadvantage to be shorthanded and inexperienced at secondary.
Byron Murphy’s progression has been tangible; his passer rating allowed has dropped from 111.2 in his rookie year to 92.5, then 87.6 last season. The only problem? All reports suggest that Arizona wants to keep him in the slot.
On the outside, there’s Marco Wilson, who ranked 90th (out of 93) in adjusted yards per coverage snap. He projects to have the starting job solely because of an injury to Antonio Hamilton.
It also isn't ideal that Arizona blitzed at the NFL’s third-highest rate but finished last in pressure rate and that Chandler Jones — their best interior defender — left for Las Vegas this offseason.
That Arizona is making moves (see the Trayvon Mullen trade) in hopes that a patchwork group is ready to go by Week 1 isn’t the most optimistic of signs — especially against a Mahomes-led group anxious to put critics on mute after a bitter end to 2021-22.
How about that Kyler Murray guy?
Everything noted above could ultimately prove helpful, but the deepest of truths is that Arizona will go as far as its electrifying quarterback can take it.
Because of last season’s finish, it’s easy to forget just how dynamic of a player he is and some of the stories and superlatives that his play brings out. Last season, as the Cardinals flew to a 7-0 start, Murray’s EPA per dropback was 0.20 — a number that would’ve paced every other QB — before his ankle injury.
How can the Chiefs combat him?
Well, here’s maybe a theory. Remember last season, when the entire NFL world gathered around on Sunday, Oct. 10 to watch Buffalo stifle the Chiefs by not blitzing Mahomes? And then the Titans taking it a step further weeks later, blitzing just once on 39 dropbacks? When something works for one team, others will try.
For Murray, the story can be summed in four words: make him throw middle.
It feels unwise to write a rulebook on how to defend a talented 24-year-old, especially when that flaw is so magnified in the public eye.
This feels worth advocating for, though, for two reasons: First, either try and take away Murray’s high-frequency boundary throws or live with the alternatives, where his 98.8 PFF grade is the NFL’s highest on 20-plus yard throws. Secondly, it isn’t 100% mental; Murray’s physical stature plays into that struggle of throwing over the middle.
Brett Kollmann and E.J. Snyder perhaps said it best on Bootleg Football. You overplay Murray on the edge, take away his strengths and force him to scramble, where he’s likely making business decisions and sliding. That transforms those great plays into merely good ones.
As always, Kansas City will hope to turn more of those pressures into sacks. If they keep Murray’s lightning playstyle in a bottle, however, it feels wise to predict the genie will grant a win. Chiefs, 31; Cardinals, 26.
