What to Expect from Travis Kelce's Second Half
On Thursday, the Kansas City Chiefs announced a four-year extension with star tight end Travis Kelce. In one sense, the move was not surprising — the Chiefs have seemingly locked up every star player on their roster over the past couple of months — but in another sense, it did surprise. Kelce, unlike Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones, is already over 30. He'll turn 31 this October.
The fact that the Chiefs were willing to give Kelce this contract at this stage of his career shows just how much the tight end position has evolved since its inception. Once an afterthought in the receiving game, largely deployed as essentially an extra offensive lineman, the tight end position has grown into a defense-misdirecting, mismatch-making jack-of-all-trades.
There are just 48 1,000-yard receiving seasons by tight ends in NFL history. The first to do it was Hall of Famer Mike Ditka in 1961, his rookie year. Pete Retzlaff, at age 34, went for 1,190 yards for the Eagles in 1965, and Hall of Famer Jackie Smith racked up 1,205 in 1967, but no tight end crossed the 1,000-yard mark again until another Hall of Famer, Kellen Winslow, accomplished the feat in 1980. Three managed to do it the following year — Winslow, Ozzie Newsome, and Joe Senser — but from 1982 to 1999, it happened just ten more times. Winslow and Newsome would each put up another 1,000-yard season, Todd Christensen three, Shannon Sharpe three, but it remained a rare occurrence: in the same span, there were 249 1,000-yard seasons by wide receivers, and even three from running backs.
Then came Tony Gonzalez.
The Chiefs’ first-round pick (13th overall) in the 1997 NFL draft, Gonzalez revolutionized the tight end position. In a 17-season NFL career, Gonzalez was a six-time First-Team All-Pro, was selected to an astonishing 14 Pro Bowls, and retired with the second-most receptions (1,325) and fifth-most receiving yards (15,127) in league history. Gonzalez’s four 1,000-yard seasons are tied for the most in NFL history by a tight end, a record he now shares with Winslow, Jason Witten, Rob Gronkowski — and Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs' willingness to extend Kelce through his age-36 season is also indicative of just how good Kelce has been.
Kelce’s four straight 1,000-yard seasons is a record owned by him and him alone. Greg Olsen is the only other TE to have even three straight 1,000-yard seasons. Kelce got a somewhat belated start to his NFL career — missing his entire rookie year with a knee injury, he did not play his first full NFL season until age 25. Gonzalez, by comparison, made his debut at 21 and was already a two-time All-Pro before turning 25. But comparing Gonzalez and Kelce’s age 25 through age 30 seasons, it’s clear just how productive and consistent the latter has been.
But of course, what made Gonzalez’s Hall of Fame career wasn’t just what he did through age 30. He kept going another seven seasons, producing at a high level year in and year out, capping his career with an 853-yard, eight touchdown season at age 37.
And the Chiefs didn’t give Kelce this latest contract for what he’s already done. He’s been unbelievable, and unbelievably underpaid, but with the Chiefs entering an uncertain cap situation next year after having doled out several mega-deals this offseason, they didn’t pay Kelce out of sentiment. They are expecting him to continue to produce. The question is, will he?
There are eight tight ends in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton. Kellen Winslow retired at age 30, younger than Kelce is now. John Mackey and Charlie Sanders lasted to age 31; Kelce will turn 31 on October 5. Dave Casper retired at 32, Mike Ditka at 33, Ozzie Newsome at 34, Shannon Sharpe 35 — all younger than Kelce will be when his contract expires. Jackie Smith played until age 38, but last topped 400 yards receiving at age 34, and had a combined 71 yards in 38 games over his last three seasons.
But as the usage of tight ends in the NFL evolves with the league itself, with players like Kelce being used more out wide (over 25% in 2019) to run routes and less inlined to block (under 45% in 2019), tight ends, like quarterbacks, are extending their careers. Three tight ends in particular stand out from the past 20 years: Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten.
TONY GONZALEZ
We’ve already seen Gonzalez’s numbers as they compare to what Kelce has done in the first half of his career. But let’s look at how the first half of Gonzalez’s career compares to his own second half. We start the first half with his age 23 season, his third in the NFL. Tight ends typically do not produce at a high level early in their NFL careers, so we begin with Gonzalez’s first Pro Bowl season, 1999. The second half will cover his age 31 through age 37 seasons.
As you can see, Gonzalez was an extremely productive player in the second half of his career, if a slightly different player. His targets actually went up, as did his reception totals. His touchdowns and catch rate remained nearly identical. His yards per reception and yards per target, however, dipped somewhat, indicating that Gonzalez was perhaps stretching the field less than in his younger days. But he remained an exceptionally effective chain-mover and red zone threat right up until his retirement.
ANTONIO GATES
Gates was a somewhat different player than Kelce — more of a red zone weapon (he’s first all-time in touchdowns by a tight end), less of an every-down receiving threat. Gates actually played through age 38, a year longer even than Gonzalez, but since Kelce’s current contract will expire after Kelce’s age 36 season, we’ll cut Gates’ numbers off there. We’ll start with his first Pro Bowl season, his second in the NFL, 2004.
As with Gonzalez, Gates’ catch rate remained steady in his second half, while his yards per reception and yards per target dropped. In fact, Gates’ drop of 1.7 yards per reception and 1.2 yards per target is identical to Gonzalez’s post-30 dip. But because Gates’ targets dropped — unlike Gonzalez’s, which actually went up — his overall production suffered a steeper decline.
JASON WITTEN
Unlike Gates, Witten is a much more similar player to Kelce — a dynamic move-the-chains player between the 20s who is less prolific in the red zone. Witten, like Gates, was drafted in 2003, and his first-half sample, like Gates, begins with a Pro Bowl second season in 2004. Our endpoint for Witten is his age 35 season, after which he retired — only to unretire and return to the Cowboys last season at age 37, then sign on with the Las Vegas Raiders this year for another run at age 38.
Witten saw his yards per reception and yards per target decline after age 30, just as Gonzalez and Gates did. But he suffered less of a dip than either of those players, perhaps because he wasn’t quite as dynamic as they were to begin with. Still, like the others, he remained a useful player in his old age.
So what does all of this mean for Travis Kelce's second half? Kelce, as you'll see below, was every bit the equal, if not the better, of these three Hall of Fame tight ends through age 30:
Each one of these tight ends was a productive player after age 30, too. Witten and Gates continued to find success in reduced roles; Gonzalez actually saw an increased workload after turning 30 and excelled (two of the five 1,000 yard seasons by an over-30 tight end belong to Gonzalez).
Kelce's role in the Chiefs' offense will likely remain unchanged until he shows signs of slowing down. If and when that happens, though, there's no reason to expect that he — like Gonzalez, Gates, and Witten — can't continue to produce at a Pro Bowl level in a slightly different role. He may not be turning bubble screens into 80-yard touchdowns, but Kelce's veteran savvy and elite route-running will likely continue to be an asset through the length of his new contract.
