The Chiefs Should Proceed With Caution in Tyrann Mathieu Extension Talks
The Kansas City Chiefs have made it clear that as soon as they get some things sorted out, their attention will be shifted to safety Tyrann Mathieu's contract situation. While that secondary priority status is less than ideal for a franchise cornerstone, it's necessary and needs to be reflected in any subsequent offer(s) the organization makes its star safety this offseason.
Mathieu's resume speaks for itself. He's a multi-time Pro Bowler and All-Pro, he's on the NFL's All-Decade team and he was in the running for this season's Walter Payton Man of the Year award. On and off the field, the former LSU Tigers standout is one of the best in the game. With that said, the Chiefs signing him to a record-breaking contract extension is far from a slam dunk.
Statistically, Mathieu had a good campaign in 2021. Not only did he intercept three passes and recover three fumbles, but he also recorded 76 tackles and a sack during the regular season. For his above-average play on the field, Mathieu was awarded his second straight Pro Bowl selection. A closer look, though, paints a bit of a different picture — one that suggests shelling out top dollar for Mathieu may not be a decision that pays off in the long run.
Dec 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs free safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) reacts to play against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
A more nuanced look at things indicates that Mathieu struggled more in 2021 than he did in recent years. His PFF rating of 67.3 is significantly lower than expected for a superstar safety, and he battled injuries to his hand, knee and quad throughout the season. He also found himself in the league's concussion protocol following a hit during the Divisional Round. Mathieu's raw numbers are more than solid and he was still good this season, but his overall health and ability to post elite-level production were both shaky. That matters for a player his age, especially when in talks for a long-term contract.
The three highest-paid safeties in the NFL in terms of average annual value are Jamal Adams ($17.5 million), Harrison Smith ($16M) and Justin Simmons ($15.25M). Eddie Jackson isn't far behind Simmons, making $14.6M per year on his deal. The average age of those players when they signed their respective contracts is 27.8. Smith being 32 at the time of signing definitely plays to Mathieu's advantage, but there's still a serious question as to what he'll command on the open market.
Spotrac has a formula that computes both a base value and a calculated market value for players. Its base value for a Mathieu extension checks in at $15.8M and after accounting for statistical comparisons to his peers, that figure drops to just under $14.9M. On Over The Cap, Mathieu's average per year is an even $14M without injury adjustments and $13.1M with them. All of those figures are less than what Adams is making, and all adjusted values come up well short of Smith as well. No problem, right? Not so fast.
Mathieu's August tweet can be interpreted in a few different ways, and one of them is him balking at the comparison of Adams' contract situation to his. If that's the case, it would be reasonable to assume that Mathieu is looking to be the highest-paid safety in the NFL. The Chiefs shouldn't proceed down that path, because it could leave them regretting their investment for reasons outlined above.
On the other hand, as has been the case throughout his tenure with the Chiefs, perhaps Mathieu's tweet means very little. Maybe he isn't looking to be the highest-paid safety in football. If that's the case, the Chiefs have some room to work with. Smith's four-year, $64M pact with the Vikings then becomes a reference point, although even that much is a hefty chunk of change to give a player about to hit the aforementioned age of 30. The Chiefs should think long and hard about proceeding down that path, too.
At any rate, Kansas City needs to proceed with caution. Mathieu burst onto the scene with the Chiefs and immediately made his case as one of the top free agent signings in franchise history. His value to Steve Spagnuolo's defense and the local community is legitimate. Still, though, the Chiefs have to remind themselves that football is a business. Despite some salary cap flexibility and Brett Veach's reputation as a deal-working wizard, inking Mathieu to an enormous contract extension may not be the best move. It's up to the Chiefs to figure out how many concessions they're willing to make in the end. Where they draw their line will determine Mathieu's playing future.
