The Definition of "High-Floor Quarterback" Needs to Change
The Indianapolis Colts are in the midst of yet another wasted season, as their offseason acquisition of Matt Ryan yielded the same dismal results as the last veteran quarterback's career they tried to resurrect. The Colts will, yet again, be in the quarterback market this offseason.
It has been a long four years for Colts fans, as the team has tried (and failed) to do the same approach year after year to fix this important position. Veterans Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Ryan were far from the answer at the position, and now the Colts are in the same position that they were after 2019 but with an older — and higher-paid — roster.
The constant failures at acquiring a veteran quarterback have led to one conclusion that most fans and analysts can agree on; it is time for the Colts to draft their next signal caller. Colts fans are so eager for a new quarterback that they would likely take anybody under 25 years old with a capable arm to be the next franchise passer.
The focus for the fans now firmly turns towards the NFL Draft. Every year with the draft, we (as analysts and as fans) do the same song and dance with the upcoming class. We see the pocket passers of old and label them as the "safe, high-floor options that can operate an NFL offense." Then we see the running quarterbacks, and they get the label of "boom-or-bust player with a lot of upside."
We have seen this happen time and time again with the NFL. Don't believe me? Let's look at some examples.
Eric Crocker of Locked on NFL Draft labeled QB prospect Kyle Trask as a "safe pick" and as a player that "makes the right throws."
Matt Bowen of ESPN said, when talking about what teams may prefer, that "some may see a higher floor with Mac Jones."
Meanwhile, on the other side of the spectrum, we have the fear of the rushing quarterbacks.
Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports said that "just about everyone can agree that Josh Allen is a boom-or-bust prospect."
Infamously, an anonymous offensive coordinator told Tom Pelissero of NFL.com that Lamar Jackson is "an awesome athlete. He will not be able to play (quarterback) in this league, mark my words."
The goal of this article is to not put any of those above analysts on blast or to highlight takes that maybe haven't aged super well over the years. My goal is to simply challenge the traditional way of how we view a "safe" quarterback prospect. With Colts fans already looking to the draft, this is an important topic to discuss before we begin this process.
The Recent Downfall of the Pocket Passer
I want to preface this section by saying that the traditional pocket passer is not completely dead (at the moment). The corpse of Tom Brady is still producing down in Tampa Bay and other throwback pocket passers such as Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff are having productive seasons for their respective teams. This conversation is solely looking at a recent draft trend.
If we look at every NFL Draft since 2018, there have been eight quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds that averaged less than 10 yards rushing per game in college. Those eight quarterbacks are:
- Josh Rosen (10th overall pick in 2018)
- Mason Rudolph (76th overall pick in 2018)
- Dwayne Haskins (15th overall pick in 2019)
- Drew Lock (42nd overall pick in 2019)
- Will Grier (100th overall pick in 2019)
- Mac Jones (15th overall pick in 2021)
- Kyle Trask (64th overall pick in 2021)
- Davis Mills (67th overall pick in 2021)
Of those eight players, only two of them are currently still a starter in the NFL (and one of those is Davis Mills, who was benched two weeks ago). Josh Rosen, the highest pick on this list, is no longer on an NFL team. When looking at this list, should we still be calling pocket passers "safe" prospects?
The Rise of the Rushing QB
On the other side of this argument is the mobile/rushing quarterbacks. This list below is one of all the quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds that averaged over 30 yards rushing per game in college:
- Josh Allen (7th overall pick in 2018)
- Lamar Jackson (32nd overall pick in 2018)
- Kyler Murray (1st overall pick in 2019)
- Daniel Jones (6th overall pick in 2019)
- Jalen Hurts (53rd overall pick in 2020)
- Trey Lance (3rd overall pick in 2021)
- Justin Fields (11th overall pick in 2021)
- Kellen Mond (66th overall pick in 2021)
- Malik Willis (86th overall pick in 2022)
Of these nine quarterbacks, seven of the nine are currently starters in the league. One of the other two non-starters, Malik Willis, will likely be in that role for the Tennessee Titans in the future. Also, this list has a league MVP (Jackson), an All-Pro (Allen), and a soon-to-be All-Pro (Jalen Hurts). So, maybe this boom-or-bust style of quarterback is actually one with a high floor and a high ceiling?
Why Mobile QBs are Finding Success
Why is the once-risky archetype at quarterback beginning to hit at sky-high rates? Well, a lot of it has to do with how offenses are run in the modern NFL. Everything in today's game is about spacing. Play-callers can accomplish this in many ways, but the easiest route is to have a QB that can threaten defenses with their legs.
Let's look at the obvious reasoning for this first. The quarterbacks mentioned above are some of the best athletes in the world, so getting them the ball in space can do wonders for an offense. Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears is the best example of this.
Fields is currently seventh in the NFL in total rushing yards this season with 905. Of those yards, 337 of them have come on designed runs for the athletic quarterback. With Fields' ability to stretch the defense with his legs, the Bears' offense has more explosive potential in the run game than most other teams in the league:
The second part to this equation is what happens after a defense has to worry about quarterbacks in the designed run game. That +1 option in the backfield essentially pulls defenses out wide, which gives running backs much more space to operate after the hand-off. The best example of this is Hurts in Philadelphia.
Hurts is always a threat to run on any run design that the Eagles draw up. This, in turn, has opened up the field for Miles Sanders to have his best career season. Sanders is currently sixth in the NFL in yards per attempt, and it is play designs like this that have given the veteran back plenty of space to work with:
The ability to run the ball is great, but this is ultimately a passing league. Teams live and die by the pass, and these mobile quarterbacks can dictate the type of coverage that they are seeing on the backend. Let's look at Baltimore Ravens quarterback Jackson for this example.
Jackson is one of the greatest rushing QBs in NFL history, running for over 1,000 yards twice (and over 700 yards in each of the past four seasons). His ability to kill teams with his legs dictates what defenses can do in coverage on designed pass plays. If defenses want to line up in straight man coverage, they have to use a spy or Jackson will rip off a 50+ yard run before they even know it.
A mobile quarterback basically makes defenses run zone coverage or they force the defense to allocate a spy (if they want to run man coverage concepts). This creates more space in the secondary, which gives these mobile quarterbacks more options in the passing game:
Just to add even more context, this is what can happen if defenses opt to not utilize a spy in man coverage concepts. New York Giants QB Daniel Jones has scrambled on 9.9% of his dropbacks this season. On these scrambles, he is averaging 7.7 yards per carry and has had 17 rushes of over 10 yards.
Ben Solak of The Ringer wrote a fantastic article back in October about the value of scrambling for quarterbacks. In short, scrambles have created a much higher EPA per play than the average dropback pass this season:
Let’s start with an understanding of what raw data tells us about scrambles. Across all quarterbacks this season, scrambles are producing .508 EPA per play, which is the second-highest mark in any season since 2000. In comparison: The EPA per play of a league-average pass attempt (no spikes, no throwaways) is .212.
Mobile quarterbacks can either dictate the type of coverage that they are seeing due to the threat of them running, or they can actually run and create value that way. Pick your poison, defensive coordinators:
One more added bonus to having a mobile quarterback; sack negation. Mobile quarterbacks have the potential to negate sacks with their strength and athleticism in the pocket. Solak also talks about this in his article with The Ringer, please read his fantastic piece by clicking this hyperlink, it is fascinating to see the value that having a scrambler can provide:
This is where quarterback scrambling raises the floor of an offense. A quarterback who can scramble when pressured is not just creating a positive play, but also erasing a hugely negative play: a sack. Just one sack on a drive makes it three times less likely that that drive will end in a touchdown than when compared with a sack-less drive—and accordingly, the ability to avoid sacks is perhaps the most valuable skill a quarterback can have.
We notice it less often than most quarterback highlights—the heroic third-and-long conversions or fourth-and-goal connections in the end zone—but in terms of momentum-shifting, scale-tipping plays, the quarterback scramble to escape pressure and avoid a sack is among the greats. It just happens too often and too mundanely for us to notice.
The best example of this is Allen with the Buffalo Bills. How many times this season have we seen this exact play for the Colts turn into a huge loss--or even a game-changing turnover? With a mobile quarterback like Allen, a potential drive-ending huge loss can turn into a monster gain in a split second:
The Bottom Line
The modern NFL is evolving at a fascinating rate before our very eyes. The league once dominated by pure pocket passers like Peyton Manning and Brady has changed into one led by creative improvisers such as Pat Mahomes. While the do-it-all, dual-threat QB is still the ideal option, the mobile quarterback archetype should be seen as safer than the pocket passer.
Mobile quarterbacks simply raise the floor of an offense astronomically higher than a pocket passer can. Just look at the recent draft picks I listed above. Only two of the eight pure pocket passers listed are still starting for their NFL teams. On the other hand, seven of the nine rushing quarterbacks listed are still starting — and mostly thriving — with their NFL teams.
The modern NFL is all about spacing and explosive plays. Mobile passers give offenses that potential more than a traditional pocket passer. I don't care if pocket passers have traditionally been the ones to hoist Lombardi Trophies, I care much more about the next 10 Super Bowls than the previous 10.
The NFL is moving toward a mobile QB trend, and it would be wise for the Colts to adopt this before the rest of the league leaves them behind. In a new NFL that revolves around the explosive play, it is time to finally label mobile quarterbacks as the "safe" archetype in draft circles.
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