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2024 Colts Draft Primer: Final Thoughts Heading Into the Draft
Zach Hicks empties the notebook of his final thoughts with just two days remaining before the 2024 NFL Draft.
The 2024 NFL Draft is just days away, and the anticipation for the big day is truly agonizing. The Indianapolis Colts have so many routes they could go in this draft that it is almost nauseating to go through each and every scenario. So today, I simply wanted to lay out my thoughts on a few of the draft’s biggest talking points for this team.
This isn’t a predictive piece by any means, but it is how I would view the biggest topics for the Colts going into this Thursday.
Trade Up or Trade Down?
General manager Chris Ballard has been quite clear in his draft process throughout his career. He is a firm believer in stockpiling draft picks to have more shots to find talent, and this is a mindset that has been backed up for years by countless studies of the data. Ballard had this to say about his philosophy of adding more picks to the arsenal come draft day:
I just go off history. The more picks you have, the better chance you have to hit. Now, of course you’re not going to hit on all of them but it gives you more of a chance to hit.
The hubris of the NFL Draft is believing that a player will hit purely because the scouting report is positive. There are dozens of factors that go into whether a player will be successful in the NFL or not, and sometimes the likelihood of a player hitting comes down to random chance or circumstance. Ballard and many other GMs understand that the best way to mitigate the risk of the draft is by having more shots at acquiring talent.
Now, this doesn’t mean the Colts won’t trade up in the draft. Ballard and the Colts have made several trade-ups in the past, but it has to be for a player who checks every single box and for a pick that doesn’t cost too much in draft capital. The Colts have made just two trade-ups in the top 50 of the draft in Ballard’s career, and the most that he has moved up in those trades is three selections. His move from the 44th overall pick to the 41st overall pick in the 2020 draft cost him just a fifth-round selection.
So, when it comes to trading up in this draft, it isn’t completely out of the question. If a player like Brock Bowers or Dallas Turner (for instance) are on the board at pick 13 and the Colts get a sense another team might try to jump up for one of them, then Ballard could send a fourth-round selection or something to move up. Ultimately though, that is not his draft philosophy.
Regardless of personal feelings on this strategy, it is simply how the Colts operate. Maybe a playmaker in this draft makes them stray away from it, but the odds of that seem exceedingly low. When people tell you who they are, believe them. Ballard has been very upfront about this strategy, so there is no reason to doubt him when he says, “We’ll probably move back” in this draft. That simply is how he approaches the draft.
Needs in this Draft?
Even if a trade up in round one seems unlikely, that doesn’t mean the Colts won’t have their eyes on some of the top playmakers in the class. The Colts draft slot at 15 is the prime spot to stop a player’s slide, and there could be an ideal fit on the board with the potential of 4-5 quarterbacks going in the top 14 selections.
As for needs, the obvious ones are cornerback and safety. The Colts currently have the exact same starters at those positions going into next year, bringing back a secondary that struggled for a majority of last season. The Colts need to bring in some outside help, whether it’s in the draft or after the draft, to fix those weaknesses.
Wide receiver is another interesting need to look at. The Colts were notoriously thin at the position last season, with almost every snap on offense going to the team’s top three players on the depth chart. The Colts could elect to add a day one difference-maker early in the draft and relegate Alec Pierce to more of a reserve role, or add a niche player on day three to act as that reserve behind Pierce and the other starters.
As for other positions, the Colts have some future needs to consider. Both Will Fries and Ryan Kelly are set to be free agents after this upcoming season, so the team will certainly be in the offensive line market. Ballard mentioned the other day that, “The o-line in this draft is really excellent, and there’s depth throughout. I truly believe you’re going to get a really good player in those mid rounds and even some later because of the depth of the group.”
Defensive end is another position of intrigue. Ballard has always prioritized spending high picks on the position, with 25% of his career top 100 selections being used on edge rushers. Dayo Odeyingbo is set to be a free agent after the season and Kwity Paye could potentially be one too with his fifth-year option decision coming up. Linebacker falls into this similar tier of need with E.J. Speed set to his free agency in 2025 as well.
Overall, the only positions the Colts feel unlikely to take in this draft are quarterback and defensive tackle. They have their roster fairly set at those two spots, but anything else is up for grabs. For my money, I believe the Colts’ top priority in this draft is to add a dynamic playmaker on offense early and then look at the additional needs following that selection. The day-two picks following that selection can really go in any order depending on how the draft board falls.
Players To Watch in Round 1
Ballard mentioned that the Colts have 19-21 first-round grades in this class in his pre-draft press conference last week. That number likely doesn’t fully encompass how they divide players up within that group, but that does give a good indication of how they view the talent in this draft. That is a fairly high number and it could set the tone for how far the Colts would like to move back in round one to stay in range for a top player.
Ultimately, the players that I expect the team to be high on with the 15th pick are:
- Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
- Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama
- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
- Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
- Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Bowers and Thomas are true difference makers on offense, albeit impacting the game in completely different ways. Bowers’ elite ability after the catch and his ability to win over the middle of the field would cause problems for opposing defenses, and Thomas’ elite ability in the vertical passing game is truly rare for a player of his size. Both players fit exactly what the team is looking for early in this draft.
Turner is a bit raw of a pass rusher, but it is hard to ignore the pure talent he has on film. He is a special athlete that can wear multiple hats for a defense at the next level. He fits just about every single trait that the Colts look for in a pass rusher, and landing a top-10 talent at 15 would be the absolute dream scenario for the Colts.
Mitchell is an athletically gifted cornerback that has the makeup to fit what the Colts are looking for on the outside. He shined in zone coverage at the college level and his dominant Senior Bowl outing this year could be enough to push him over the edge on the Colts’ board. Ballard was won over by Rock Ya-Sin’s Senior Bowl back in 2019, so we could see a similar scenario happen here with Mitchell.
Aside from those top four players, I believe the Colts will be high on a player like Rome Odunze as well. Odunze’s character, production, and athleticism fit everything that Ballard likes to see, but it seems unlikely that he will be even within striking range for the Colts in a draft day trade. He’s one name to keep an eye on in a trade up, however.
In the event that the Colts look to trade back on draft day, there are several players that could fall into the Colts-type of player bucket:
- Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa
- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
- Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
- Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
There are certainly other names to consider depending on how far back the Colts move down in a potential trade-back, but these are the names that I personally have circled to watch for. As I’ve mentioned a few times in this piece already, the players that I’m focusing on are on the offensive side of the ball, so my focus is more on players like Bowers, Thomas, and Worthy rather than the other names on this list (at least at this moment).
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Two Darkhorse Options Early in the Draft
Two players to keep an eye on this week are wide receiver Malik Nabers and edge rusher Laiatu Latu. Neither player has been mocked to the Colts much this offseason, but the team has done some extra work on both players. Now, that extra work doesn’t mean they are gearing up to draft each player, but they have dug deeper into these two than expected (in my opinion).
Nabers is an interesting name, as some teams have him as high as the top receiver in the draft while others aren’t particularly interested in the star pass catcher. There have been some draft leaks of late alluding to character concerns and he’s also currently dealing with a shoulder injury that is a tad bit worrisome. The Colts had Nabers in for a visit, likely to recheck those two aspects on this talented player. It’s unlikely he’s available by the Colts’ pick but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Latu is arguably the best pass rusher in this draft class, but the 23-year-old edge rusher has a scary injury history. Some teams have Latu off their board entirely due to the neck injury that forced him to medically retire two years ago. The Colts are notoriously strict with their medical rechecks, so it remains to be seen how interested the Colts are in Latu. They have dug into his background and medicals quite a bit this draft season, however.
Day 2 Players to Watch
Ballard has struck gold in the past on day two picks for the Colts, landing All-Pro talents like Shaquille Leonard and Jonathan Taylor alongside strong starters Michael Pittman Jr., Bernhard Raimann, and Braden Smith in the coveted second day of the draft. Will he be able to hit a home run on day two again this year?
Here are some notable players to keep an eye on for day two this year:
Adisa Isaac, DE, Penn State: If the Colts miss out on an edge rusher on day one of the draft, Isaac is the logical day two target. Long arms, elite athleticism, and high upside with this former four star recruit.
Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State: Sinnott is a former fullback who moved to tight end for his final two seasons of play. Elite explosive scores and the positional flexibility that Shane Steichen wants at the position.
Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina: Legette is a former high school quarterback that faced a lot of adversity at the college level. Late breakout player, but the Colts are bound to love his athleticism (and his perseverance throughout his career).
Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida: Pearsall’s hands and route running ability are among the best in the draft, and his relationship with Anthony Richardson could play its way into the draft room. Elite testing as well.
Max Melton, CB, Rutgers: Melton is an inside-out cornerback prospect who possesses elite athleticism, ball skills, and length. He is a perfect fit for a zone-based system and would slide in well alongside JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones.
Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State: Hicks is a former cornerback that made the transition out to safety for the Cougars. He is a fluid mover, a great tackler, and has the ability to play either safety spot. He also is just a redshirt sophomore in this class.
Brandon Coleman, OT/IOL, TCU: A multi-year starter, Coleman hits the size and athletic thresholds the Colts look for at the position. His ability to play inside and out should be valuable to the Colts come draft day.
Tanor Bortolini, IOL, Wisconsin: Bortolini is an elite tester that declared early for this draft class. He is a polished pass protector with great speed on the perimeter in the run game. The Colts could surprise some and look at Bortolini in the third round as their long term option at center behind Ryan Kelly.
Day 3 Players to Watch
Day three of the draft may just be an early look at the UDFA period, but the Colts have been able to find several contributors over the years on the third day of the draft. Notably, the Colts starting linebacker duo were both drafted on day three of their respective drafts and star nose tackle Grover Stewart was also found in the fourth round.
Here are some notable players to keep an eye on for day two this year:
Trey Taylor, S, Air Force: The Jim Thorpe award winner in 2023, Taylor has been criminally underrated in this draft cycle. He tested well, had a strong Shrine Bowl performance, and coaches at Air Force rave about him as a player and as a leader.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Purdue: A former wide receiver at Iowa, Tracy brings all the traits that Ballard loved in Nyheim Hines (in a much bigger player though). Tracy’s versatility and big play tendencies would make him the perfect RB2 in Indy.
Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice: A former quarterback at Nebraska, McCaffrey made the successful transition to pass catcher at Rice. He stood out at the Senior Bowl, does the dirty work for an offense, and has upside as a multiple receiver spot backup in the NFL.
Tylan Grable, OT, UCF: A quarterback in high school, Grable transitioned to tight end and then to offensive tackle at Jacksonville State. He eventually made the jump up to UCF, starting two years for the team. He is a phenomenal athlete that checks a lot of boxes.
Jonah Laulu, IDL, Oklahoma: Laulu is an elite athlete that got stuck in the Sooners’ rotation over the past few seasons. He has fantastic traits, but is a bit raw at the moment. The Colts could look at him anywhere from round five-UDFA period.
Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College: Jones is a battle-tested press man cornerback with great length and explosion. He is a bit slim compared to what the Colts typically like, but his upside in coverage could be worth a shot on day three.
Blake Watson, RB, Memphis: A former wide receiver, Watson is a big play machine who could wear multiple hats for a team. Similarly to Tracy above, he would be the ideal day-three back for the Colts in this draft.
Lorenzo Thompson, OT, Rhode Island: A towering offensive tackle prospect, Thompson turned some heads this draft season with his highlights on film and strong testing numbers. The Colts should certainly be interested in this long time starter this draft season.
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