The Draft Dilemma: To Trade Down Or Not?
Who will the Redskins take next week with the overall number two selection?
Will one of the voluminous draft-day trades we’ve read about for months actually take place?
Speaking of draft-day trades, should NFL teams trade up or trade down in the annual draft?
You recall last year’s draft, the Redskins leadership selecting Dwayne Haskins earlier than he had been projected, at 15 in the first-round.
After the following ten draft selections were announced, there the Redskins were again, trading back up into the first round at 26, selecting Mississippi State edge rusher Montez Sweat.
Instantly -- Redskins nation was buzzing with exhilaration.
Redskins fans were so excited on Twitter, never stopping to take a breath and realize the Redskins had also actually traded away two second-round choices.
Though trading up brings immediate hope, there are also consequences that will be future reality.
No offense to Sweat; he is not at all to blame in any way.
He had done what he was supposed to do—play hard enough and well enough an NFL team would want to draft him in the first round.
Sweat generated seven sacks and 27 quarterback pressures his first NFL season, while being credited with 50 tackles, only being credited with one missed tackle in his 16 games.
When the Redskins select number two in the first-round next Thursday night, they will not select again until number 66 overall, with the second selection in round three.
Last year’s perceived need to trade up resulted in this year’s forfeiture of a choice in the second round. This for a team that was only 3-13 last season.
Ineffective leadership results in organizations making deficient choices.
Short-sighted decisions cost you in the long term.
Misguided leaders enamored with making a splash trade away draft choices, moving up the NFL Draft ladder, hoping the player they are moving up to select will instantly bring them success.
Wise organizations have for years feasted from anxious organizations trading up, hoping to strike it rich.
The wiser executive is content to move down, obtaining an extra selection or more.
Clever leaders are not consumed with the notion “we are close” or “we are only one player away”.
They understand the NFL is a violent business, injuries occur each season, and you always need more choices improving your odds of achieving a deep roster of tough, resilient, young players.
The Redskins felt they “needed” to move up getting that one player to return to the playoffs.
The Colts leadership wisely believing in delayed gratification, understood that conceding the 26 overall selection would bring them the 49th selection ten picks ahead of their own pick at 59.
The Colts shrewd leadership also knew the Redskins, already drafting ahead of the Colts in 2019, would “most likely” also be drafting ahead of the Colts in 2020.
Therefore, the Colts believed they would acquire not only two picks; but two earlier picks than their own.
Sure enough, the Redskins finished with a worse record than the Colts in 2019; hence the Colts will not only have their own second-round choice (44), but also the Redskins’ earlier choice (34).
Perceptive leadership often chooses increasing future benefits rather than present need.
Wise organizations understand you not only build through the draft, you trade down obtaining more picks as well.
Have I mentioned “delayed gratification” yet?
Wise organizations usually don’t race after super highly-priced free agents.
Sometimes that is even your own. The NFL will reward you a compensatory draft selection in return.
Those players drafted via compensatory seIections in the middle to lower rounds might not be as talented; however, they also might come to camp hungry, focused and willing to do whatever it takes to make it in the NFL.
You ask, “Are you saying the Redskins should trade down out of the number two overall spot this year?”
No, after all, wouldn’t it be too simplistic to make it a universal rule you always trade down in the draft?
What I have learned over the years is you trade down at every opportunity you can to obtain a player of similar value, in addition to gaining the other surplus draft picks.
In the case of this year’s draft, I am not persuaded the Redskins should trade down if Ohio State’s Chase Young is available.
The Redskins probably stay put unless they are offered something like the 2012 deal where they surrendered three first-round picks (over three years) and one second round selection for the number two overall choice (Robert Griffin III).
Observing Kyle Smith and Ron Rivera thus far it seems the two were content to not over-pay in free agency.
Being their first year together, it is my hope they will remain calm; calculating the future cost and remain focused.
With no second-round pick, is there really a need to trade up into that round, sacrificing future selections? No.
Perhaps they will surprise us by trading back in the third round, gaining more selections like the Colts last year or as Bill Belichick has done for years?
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Ivan Lambert is a lifelong die-hard Washington Redskins fan, raised in Berryville, Virginia. He is married and the father of two fine young men. He is currently a sports correspondent for The Ledger in Lakeland, Florida and can be found on Twitter @IvanLambert18
