Projecting Cowboys Sack Totals With Aldon Smith: 'The Sky's The Limit'
FRISCO - Dallas Cowboys defensive end Aldon Smith believes, in regard to the production he can give his new team, "The sky is the limit.''
A willing Cowboys mentor in DeMarcus Ware says Smith is destined to "excel'' in this Dallas "hybrid'' defense.
And an admiring foe, New York Giants legend Carl Banks, tells me, "Let Aldon Smith get back to just 75 percent of what he once was and he'll be a terror.''
Sounds promising. But at what level does one become a "terror'' in terms of pressure on the QB? What is the measure of "excelling''? In terms of sacks, how high is this sky?
The 2019 Cowboys totaled 39 sacks, placing them 19th in the NFL. To be "elite'' in this department, let's call "48'' a magic number, as achieving that in 2019 (as did the Steelers, Panthers, Saints, Rams, Niners and Vikings) placed a team in the top six in the NFL. (The Steelers led the league at 53; the Patriots were seventh at 47, and yeah, you'd take that, too.
So where do the 2020 Cowboys find 48 sacks?
In 2017, DeMarcus Lawrence totaled 14.5; he vows to return to that level this year (story here), but even double-digit sacks from Tank would go a long way to raising the totals. Last season, it was the now-departed Robert Quinn who put up the singularly big number, with 11.5, but Tank had just five.
So let's try some math.
Get Lawrence back to 10 sacks. Have newcomer vet Gerald McCoy reach his career average of six (in replacing the departed Maliek Collins, who had four.) Have newcomer vet Dontari Poe match his Carolina number from last year at four (that matches the departed Michael Bennett). And for now, let's pencil in returnee Tyrone Crawford at the other end, and give him his 4.5 sacks (his average during his five full NFL seasons.
That's 24.5 sacks from the starting four. Last year, an assortment of backup D-linemen pitched in five sacks. That's 29.5 total.
Now to the scheme. Last season, to the credit of defensive coaches that get ripped now for a lack of creativity, linebacker Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee and DBs Jourdan Lewis and Darian Thompson totaled 8.5 more. That's 38 ... and we haven't yet made accommodations for a Mike McCarthy/Mike Nolan scheme that figures to rely on more cleverness to chase more sacks.
As with Crawford, Leighton Vander Esch wasn't healthy in 2019; are there sacks to be had there? Jaylon Smith takes pride in his pass-rushing abilities; might he specialize in that this year? The Cowboys have talked openly about adding a "DPR'' position ...
"I do think you could see some situations there where you are looking at a pass rusher-type that can rush the passer from more of SAM/DPR-type position,'' Cowboys COO Stephen Jones recently said, mentioning Randy Gregory.
Ah, Randy Gregory. Unlike Aldon Smith, he's yet to be reinstated. But ... in 2018, he came off the bench in 14 games and recorded six sacks. I'm personally skeptical about this process being a smooth one. However, if we're going to "sky's the limit'' this time, we'll put Gregory down for reinstatement, and for six sacks again.
And now we're in the range of 44 sacks. ... six more than a season ago - and we haven't yet factored in Aldon Smith.
If you care to go with Banks' "75 percent of what he was'' projection? Take his 23.5 sacks in his marvelous first two NFL seasons, do the math, and you come up with 8.5 sacks for Aldon Smith in 2020 - and a Cowboys' total of 52.5, which would put Dallas in the very upper tier of defenses.
I'm not necessarily predicting this; Smith, following the one-year deal he recently signed with Dallas, proclaims himself to be a "young 30.'' But that also means he hasn't played in a half-decade. Gregory isn't even on the roster yet. And maybe McCoy at 32 isn't going to be able to reach his average numbers.
But if "the sky is the limit'' is the theme, then 50 sacks ought to be the goal. And Aldon Smith would seem to be the key to it all.
"Personally,'' Banks tells me, "I’d like to see him get back to where he was, which was incredible. Selfishly, I hope he doesn’t do it in the NFC East because he is a hell of a football player. (Lawrence) and then a guy like him coming off the other end? Those are disruptive players. It's going to be a real problem playing against those guys.''
