Next Dak Contract 'Bigger Than Mahomes,' Says Ex NFL Exec
FRISCO - The numbers will be "outrageous,'' in the most literal sense. But the numbers on Dak Prescott's next contract - whenever that is and with whomever that is - will also be outrageously predictable.
Yes, better-than-Patrick-Mahomes predictable.
"Mark my words,'' former NFL exec and Sports Illustrated/The MMQ columnist Andrew Brandt tells Ross Tucker. "Dak will get a much better contract than Patrick Mahomes.''
Tucker follows up this remark by stating on Twitter that such a thing would "blow up'' the internet ... and he's right.
But Brandt is right, too.
And the prediction is as obvious as it is outrageous.
Mahomes’ new mega-extension with the Kansas City Chiefs is billed as a 10-year extension with up to $503 million available in salary. It's also billed as being "$45 million per year.'' But that's actually only for the 10 new years. His cap hit for the next two seasons are only $4.35 million for 2020 and $24.81 million for $2021. So in total, it's reasonable (especially as the entire deal essentially has $477 million guaranteed) as a contract with an APY of around $40 million.
And yes, barring a catastrophe, Dak Prescott is going to someday make $40 million APY.
Will it be a 12-year deal? A 10-year deal? Will it take the "patchwork-quilting'' of tags ($31.409 million this year, $37.7 million in 2021, $54.3 million in 2022) to get him there? That's $123 million. Divide that by three and Prescott's APY would be $41.11 million.
And yes, given that it's fully guaranteed (season by season), it can be argued that it would be "better'' than Mahomes'.
Or, the Cowboys give in next spring and do a long-term deal. Inflation alone would figure to cause Dallas' on-the-table-before-the-deadline proposal of $35 million APY to balloon.
Or, the Cowboys eventually let him hit the market. The smart money then? Another balloon.
Think of it this way: At this time next year, the Cowboys will be negotiating in an attempt to avoid two more tags, with that aforementioned value of $37.7 million and $54.3 million.
That's an APY of $45.97 million over two years. And yeah, that beats Mahomes.
Dak Prescott will play on the franchise tag in 2020, which will pay him $31.409 million and if the Cowboys don't win, it'll have been an "overpay.'' But assuming Prescott, who turns 27 this month, continues to perform at a fairly high level? NFL teams will continue to "overpay.''
None of that means Prescott is on Mahomes’ level, but smart Cowboys watchers know that has very little to do with the cost of paying a "franchise QB.'' Respectfully: When we write things like, "How Will Mahomes' Deal Impact Dak?,'' and people respond, "It won't! Dak isn't even in Mahomes' class!'' ... those people aren't fully understanding the question.
It's about inflation and leverage and supply-and-demand.
Down the line, all of the great QBs and most of the good ones are going to leapfrog over Mahomes. That won't make Dak and the rest of them "better'' than the KC QB; it'll just mean their contracts will make it appear so.