Dolphins Offense Preview: What Is the Ceiling?
Is it finally the year?
Yes, this could apply to the team finally returning to the playoffs after a five-year drought, but this is about the offense, whose futility has lasted a lot longer.
So is this the year when the Dolphins finally have a top 10 offense?
For those not aware, it has been an absurdly long time since that's happened — 1995, to be precise. Doing some quick math, that's 26 consecutive seasons with the Dolphins, who had finished in the top 10 in 11 of the previous 12 years, not reaching that level.
If you're thinking, so what, the Dolphins probably aren't the only team in that boat, think again.
Do you know what the second-longest drought involving not being in the top 10 in the NFL in offense might be? Try the 14-year drought of the Cleveland Browns, who last were in the top 10 in 2007.
A total of 22 teams have finished in the top 10 at least once in the past five seasons (2017-21), so the Dolphins pretty much are on an island here.
Taking it further, the Dolphins haven't even finished in the top 20 in total offense (yards per game) since 2014 and — guess what — that's also the longest drought in the NFL.
So, yeah, it's been rough going on offense for the Dolphins in recent years.
WHY THERE'S REASON TO HOPE THE DOLPHINS FIELD AT TOP 10 OFFENSE IN 2022
So why should this season be any different?
Well, the answer(s) here should be pretty obvious, and it starts with the offseason acquisitions of Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Trent Sherfield, Erik Ezukanma and Connor Williams, moves that have significantly upgraded the talent on offense.
It's not exaggeration to suggest that Hill is the most dynamic playmaker the Dolphins have had on offense since they last had a top 10 offense, and maybe ever.
With three Pro Bowls on his resume, Armstead is the most accomplished tackle the Dolphins have had on the offensive line since the days of Jake Long, and Mostert is the fastest running back the team has had since Reggie Bush.
And then there's head coach Mike McDaniel, who arrived in Miami with a great reputation far and wide as an innovative running game architect, not to mention serving as the right-hand man to highly regarded head coach Kyle Shanahan.
THE BIG QUARTERBACK QUESTION
Maybe the most important aspect of McDaniel's arrival is what it could mean for third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
From the time he was hired, McDaniel has been very vocal in his support of Tagovailoa as he enters a critical season in terms of his long-term future with the team and there's been a discernible change in Tua's demeanor as a result as a more confident player.
But Tua still has to get it done on the field.
And maybe it's not a coincidence, but it's also been since 1995 that the Dolphins have not had a quarterback selected to the Pro Bowl — though it says here that Chad Pennington absolutely got robbed in 2008 when Pennington finished tied for second in the NFL MVP voting (with four votes behind runaway winner Peyton Manning).
In an ideal world, the top 10 and Pro Bowl QB droughts both end this season, though it seems the majority opinion among NFL analysts is that the latter ain't likely to happen.
WHY TUA HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO PROVE CRITICS WRONG
While Tua certainly has his supporters in the national media — Dan Orlovsky jumps out — there's still a lot of skepticism about his NFL potential after his first two seasons.
In a poll of 20 publishers/editors/writers of SI Fan Nation NFL sites, Tagovailoa came in 22nd among NFL quarterbacks, with 19 being his highest vote and 27 his lowest. The five quarterbacks directly ahead of him were Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston and Trevor Lawrence.
ESPN recently put together a panel to break down each NFL quarterback in 12 different areas, from arm strength to accuracy, touch, vision, pocket awareness, and so on, and Tua didn't so much as finish in the top 10 in any of those 12 categories — he got votes for touch and decision-making.
Finally, Tua is among 14 names listed with odds of being the first quarterback to get bench in 2022 (for non-injury reasons).
But it says here there's little to zero chance of Tua getting benched in 2022, and a much stronger likelihood he has a breakout season.
Everything is in place for that to happen.
He's got much better personnel around him than he had his first two seasons. He's got more support from his head coach and the organization than he did the previous two years when there were well-publicized flirtations with big-name quarterbacks and, perhaps more important of all, he's got an offense that is very quarterback-friendly.
Watching the Dolphins preseason games during Tua's brief appearances, it should be pretty obvious that we'll be seeing a pretty heavy dose of play-action passes, often accompanied by misdirection intended to get pass rushers going the wrong way, and you might get the occasional shots down the field, though we wouldn't necessarily expect it on a regular basis just because of what we saw in training camp and in the preseason finale against the Eagles.
If the Dolphins running game can at the very least keep defenses honest, something that didn't happen last year, then Tagovailoa will be put in a position to be able to get a lot of short completions to receivers on the move, which is where the YAC will come in — and, let's remember that the San Francisco 49ers led the NFL in average YAC each of the past four seasons with Shanahan as head coach and McDaniel as one of his top assistants.
Let's not forget that Jimmy Garoppolo compiled a passer rating of 98.3 in his first five seasons with the 49ers and that Jared Goff twice topped 100 in passer rating for the Rams and Sean McVay in an offensive system with a lot of similarities, and that both the 49ers and Rams went looking for better quarterbacks.
So expecting Tua's passer rating to take a clear jump from the 90.1 he posted last season isn't unrealistic. In fact, it almost should be expected.
Just like it almost should be expected for the Dolphins to make a clear jump in total offense after finishing 25th in 2021.
Maybe it's too much to ask to make a jump all the way into the top 10 for the first time since 1995. But it also would be surprising and downright depressing if the Dolphins didn't end their streak of finishing outside the top 20.
