What Can We Expect From Chan Gailey's Offense?
The Miami Dolphins went — pardon the cliché — back to the future this offseason when they hired Chan Gailey to replace Chad O'Shea as offensive coordinator.
It will mark a second stint in Miami for Gailey, who also was offensive coordinator in 2000-01. Gailey is coming back to the NFL for the first time since 2016 when he was offensive coordinator of the New York Jets.
His quarterback at the time, as has been well documented, was none other than returning Dolphins starter Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The two also were together in Gailey's previous job, as head coach of the Buffalo Bills from 2010-12.
Gailey's long NFL career, which began with the Denver Broncos in 1985, has included six terms as either an offensive coordinator or a head coach. He was OC with Denver in 1989-90 and Pittsburgh in 1996-97, and head coach of the Dallas Cowboys in 1998-99.
Because the past often is the best predictor of the future, looking at Gailey's most recent offenses can provide sort of a glimpse as to what the 2020 Dolphins offense will look like.
Because the NFL has changed so much over the past several years, we can pretty much discount what the Dolphins offense did in 2000 and 2001 as a gauge because no one expect a running back to top 300 carries for the season the way Lamar Smith did both years under Gailey (and Dolphins fans know too well the 2000 season marked the last time the team won a playoff game).
So if we just focus on the five past offenses Gailey coached — in Buffalo in 2010, 2011 and 2012 and with the Jets in 2015 and 2016 — we can start by suggesting a heavy use of three-wideout formations.
Gailey's arrival sounds promising for DeVante Parker being able to build on his breakout 2019 campaign. Steve Johnson reached 1,000 yards in each of his three seasons with Gailey in Buffalo, and Brandon Marshall set his career high for touchdowns (14) with Gailey in New York in 2015.
Unlike his two years in Miami, Gailey favored splitting the carries at running back in his past five years running an offense. The most carries for a Gailey running back since 2010 were Fred Jackson's 222 in 2010 (an average of 13.9 per game).
One thing that's been pointed out about Gailey is the lack of production from the tight end position, and the numbers bear that out.
The only tight end under him over the past 10 years with more than 50 targets in a season was Scott Chandler, who was targeted 74 times in 2012.
But it also needs to be pointed out that Gailey did not have an established tight end during his two years with the Jets.
What that means for Mike Gesicki remains to be seen, but it's difficult to envision the Dolphins ignoring him after he scored five touchdowns in the last six games of 2019.
Finally, we get to Fitzpatrick. He had one of his best seasons in 2015 when he set career highs with 3,905 passing yards and 31 touchdowns with a receiving corps that included not only Marshall, but also Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa, along with running back Bilal Powell.
Fitzpatrick, however, had a career-low 69.6 passer rating in his second season with the Jets and Gailey in 2016 after Decker left and Matt Forte replaced Chris Ivory as the second running back alongside Powell.
Of course Gailey does not have a history with Tua Tagovailoa, but he is said to like the run-pass option.
