Final NFL 2023 Week 10 Observations ... With Dolphins Angles
The surprising Buffalo loss in a sloppy Monday night home game against the Denver Broncos increased the Dolphins' cushion atop the AFC East to 1.5 games and based on their remaining schedule and the way they're trending the Bills actually should be worried about merely making the playoffs this season as opposed to having their sights set on a fourth consecutive AFC East title.
While the Dolphins likely will be favored in their next five games, Buffalo faces an upcoming schedule that includes road games against the Eagles and Chiefs and a home game against Dallas among their next four opponents.
Truth is, though, Buffalo has looked nothing like a playoff team ever since they handled the Dolphins in Week 4. The Bills are 2-4 since that game and their victories came against the lowly (no offense) New York Giants and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
On Tuesday, the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. The former University of Miami quarterback had replaced Brian Daboll after he left the Bills to become New York Giants head coach.
Based on passer rating alone, QB Josh Allen actually is doing fine, with his 96.6 mark tied for second-best in his career — behind only his 2020 season when he was MVP runner-up — and almost the same as that of Patrick Mahomes, who's at 96.7 while standing as the NFL MVP betting favorite.
But Allen continues to be sloppy with the football, and on Monday night that included two interceptions — one was a fastball that Gabe Davis let go through his hands — and a fumble when he dropped the ball as he was handing it off to running back James Cook.
By the time the Dolphins face the Bills in Week 18, there's clearly a chance the game might have zero implications when it comes to deciding the AFC East title — though it still could factor in the AFC playoff seeding or determine whether Buffalo can make the playoffs again.
JETS JUST CAN'T GET OFFENSE GOING
Before their challenging Eagles-Chiefs-Cowboys trifecta, the Bills will face another struggling AFC East team at home, the New York Jets.
And they'll face Zach Wilson because Coach Robert Saleh said Monday he was sticking with the 2021 second overall pick at quarterback after another rough outing for the offense in New York's 16-12 Sunday night loss at Las Vegas.
It's not like the Jets have great options at the position, though, considering the backup is Tim Boyle (106 career passes thrown, 54.5 career passer rating) and the practice squad QB is journeyman Trevor Siemian.
Wilson wasn't terrible against the Raiders on Sunday night, but he threw a bad interception at the Raiders 15 on the second play after the two-minute warning to end the Jets' last chance.
It's also not helping that Breece Hall is averaging 2.5 yards per carry over the last four games — since his 177-yard game at Denver in Week 5.
If the Dolphins can shut down Hall on Black Friday, they should be able to shut down the Jets offense with Wilson at quarterback, though they will have to deal with a very good defense capable of keeping New York in the game.
HOWELL HUMMING
After the Jets game, the Dolphins will travel to Washington on Dec. 3 to face a Commanders team that also will have extra time to prepare after playing at Dallas on Thanksgiving.
And the big story with Washington these days is second-year QB Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in passing yards — although it should be pointed out he hasn't had his bye yet, unlike second-place C.J. Stroud and third-place Tua Tagovailoa.
Howell is on a run of three consecutive 300-yard passing games — against the Eagles, Patriots and Seahawks — though Washington lost two of those games. Howell did help Washington top 30 points in both meetings against the Eagles, the only two times this season Philadelphia has allowed 30 or more.
QUICK HITTERS
-- Amazing stat regarding the 2023 Baltimore Ravens, who the Dolphins will face Dec. 31 in a game currently scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, courtesy of NFL Media researcher Dante Koplowitz-Fleming: The Ravens have spent the third-least time trailing over the first 10 games of a season over the past 40 years — even though they have a 7-3 record. The team at the top of that list is the 1984 Dolphins, followed by the 1998 Denver Broncos, the 2023 Ravens, the 1990 New York Giants and the 2007 New England Patriots. Every team on that list other than the 2023 Ravens started 10-0. Moral of the story: The Ravens are very good but have some issues closing out games, the latest example coming Sunday in their 33-31 loss against Cleveland.
-- The Tennessee Titans, who come to Hard Rock Stadium in Week 14, appear headed for their worst season ever under head coach Mike Vrabel, but they keep fighting defensively, Even though they fell to 3-6 after their 20-6 loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday, the Titans remained one of only two teams (along with the Kansas City Chiefs) in the NFL to not allow more than 27 points in any game this season.
-- Dan Campbell's Detroit Lions stand as the No. 2 seed in the NFC standings after their shootout victory against the Chargers, where Campbell showed the kind of aggressiveness we've seen from Mike McDaniel when he had his team go for the first down on fourth-and-2 late in the game instead of kicking a field goal that would have provided a 41-38 lead. Getting the first down enabled the Lions to bleed the clock to win the game on the final play. Two years after some questioned the former Dolphins interim head coach's ability to manage a game, Campbell stands as the betting favorite for the NFL Coach of the Year award.
-- Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch will not be back from his neck injury for the game against Miami on Dec. 24, with owner Jerry Jones telling a radio station Tuesday morning his season is over and, worse, his career is in jeopardy. He was injured in a Week 5 at San Francisco.
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