Checking Out Dolphins Receiving Over/Unders
There's been speculation on top of speculation for weeks now, even months, when it comes to what the Miami Dolphins passing game might look like in 2022 and what kind of stats might be generated by the main players involved.
To that end, it's always interesting to check out over/under totals established by oddsmakers that, while not a prediction, serve as a solid estimate because the goal of any over/under odds is to get as close to a 50-50 ratio as possible of bettors taking the over or the under.
So what to the over/under totals look like for the three feature players in the Dolphins passing game — Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki?
The following totals, courtesy of BetOnline (www.BetOnline.ag), might seems on the low end for Dolphins fans expecting a breakout performance by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in his third season.
TYREEK HILL'S OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Hill Receptions 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 82½
Hill Receiving Yards 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 995½
Hill Receiving TDs 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 7½
Analysis: It actually would be considered a disappointment in many circles if Hill failed to get over any of those numbers based on his recent production. He was comfortably over all three numbers in 2021 when he finished with 111 catches for 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns. He has topped 1,000 receiving yards four of the past five seasons, has surpassed 82 catches three of the past four, and finished with more than seven touchdowns also three of the past four.
JAYLEN WADDLE'S OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Waddle Receptions 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 87½
Waddle Receiving Yards 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 950½
Waddle Receiving TD’s 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 6
Analysis: The reception over/under might seem at first glance awfully low considering Waddle set an NFL rookie record with 104 catches in 2021, but his targets figure to go down with the arrival of Hill, so 87.5 looks like a pretty guess. The over/under for touchdowns matches Waddle's total for 2021, while the yardage total is below the 1,015 yards that he achieved, albeit with a relatively low 9.8 average. So it could be that Waddle's yardage stays around the same number even with fewer catches, which actually would benefit the Dolphins offense.
MIKE GESICKI'S OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Gesicki Receptions 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 55½
Gesicki Receiving Yards 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 600½
Gesicki Receiving TD’s 2022 Regular Season: Over/Under 3½
Analysis: The arrival of Hill appears to be a factor in Geskick's receptions and yardage over/under here too because he caught a career-high 73 passes for a career-high 780 yards in 2021, and Gesicki had 703 receiving yards the previous year. The touchdown total is interesting here because Gesicki had only two in 2021 and that's an area where the Dolphins could get more out of Gesicki.
