The Dolphins Playoff Picture Through Week 15
The Miami Dolphins put themselves on the cusp of a second consecutive playoff berth and moved closer to their first AFC East title in 15 years with their 30-0 shutout of the New York Jets, but a lot of work remains and their playoff possibilities are widespread.
After Sunday, the Dolphins now need only one more victory to clinch a playoff spot, which would give them their first back-to-back postseason appearances since they went five straight times from 1997-2001.
They also reduced their magic number for clinching the AFC East title to two, meaning any combination of Miami wins or Buffalo losses reaching two does it.
But it sure does seem as though accomplishing the first goal will be simpler, and that's because of the way the Buffalo Bills have been surging and the fact the Dolphins have the toughest season-ending three-game stretch — vs. Dallas, at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo — in the entire NFL based on the current standings.
THE AFC EAST OUTLOOK
While the Dolphins could clinch the AFC East as early as next with a victory against the Dallas Cowboys combined with a Buffalo loss against the L.A. Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Saturday night, it also very well could be that the division title will come down to Week 18 at Hard Rock Stadium when the Bills come to Miami.
Logic says it's difficult to envision the Chargers being able to upset the Bills when you remember their embarrassing Thursday night performance against the Las Vegas Raiders, though perhaps they might find some inspiration under their new interim head coach Giff Smith on Saturday night.
The Bills' next game will be a rematch against the New England Patriots, who did upset them at Gillette Stadium earlier this season but have faded to the point where they're now in contention for the first overall pick.
So assuming Buffalo handles those two games — the Bills opened as 14-point favorites against the Chargers — it means the Dolphins would have to win each of their next two games (against Dallas and at Baltimore) for the Week 18 game to not become a winner-take-all showdown for the division title.
THE OVERALL AFC PICTURE
Just like the Dolphins don't need any outside help to win the AFC East title if they take care of business, they don't need any outside help to land the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the accompanying first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs.
By winning out, the Dolphins would finish 13-4 and the only team that could match that record would be Baltimore, but then Miami would get the tiebreaker by virtue of their head-to-head victory Dec. 31 (remember, this is the scenario where the Dolphins win out).
If the Dolphins finish 12-5 while defeating Baltimore, they'll win the AFC East title but landing the top seed then would require the Kansas City Chiefs losing one of their final three games — at home against Las Vegas, at home against Cincinnati, and at the L.A. Chargers.
One thing for sure: The Dolphins cannot land the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they lose at Baltimore.
If the Dolphins win the AFC East but don't land the No. 1 seed, the most likely landing spot would be the second or third seed depending on whether they can finish with a better record than the Chiefs, who hold the tiebreaker over them.
If the Dolphins should end up not winning the AFC East and finish 11-6, they likely would be in a battle with the Cleveland Browns for the No. 5 seed. The Browns currently are a game behind the Dolphins at 9-5 and finish with games at Houston, vs. the New York Jets, and at Cincinnati.
In a worst-case scenario where the Dolphins lose their final three games, they still likely would make the playoffs with a 10-7 record, but that would require some outside help like one Cincinnati loss and one more losses from two of three AFC South contenders (Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville).
REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF CONTENDERS (teams at .500 or better)
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-3) — at San Francisco, vs. Miami, vs. Pittsburgh
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-4) — vs. Dallas, at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-5) — vs. Las Vegas, vs. Cincinnati, at L.A. Chargers
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-6) — at Tampa Bay, vs. Carolina, at Tennessee
5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (9-5) — at Houston, vs. N.Y. Jets, at Cincinnati
6. CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-6) — at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, vs. Cleveland
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-6) — at Atlanta, vs. Las Vegas, vs. Houston
8. HOUSTON TEXANS (8-6) — vs. Cleveland, vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis
9. BUFFALO BILLS (8-6) — at L.A. Chargers, vs. New England, at Miami
10. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7) — vs. Cincinnati, at Seattle, at Baltimore
11. DENVER BRONCOS (7-7) — vs. New England, vs. L.A. Chargers, at Las Vegas
PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES
To break a tie within a division
1. Head-to-head
2. Best record in division games
3. Best record in common games
4. Best record in conference games
5. Strength of victory in all games
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
9. Best net points in common games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
To break a tie for wild-card spots
Two teams
1. Head-to-head, if applicable
2. Best record in conference games
3. Best record in common games (minimum of four)
4. Strength of victory in all games
5. Strength of schedule in all games
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best net points in conference games
9. Best net points in all games
10. Best net touchdowns in all games
11. Coin toss
Three or more teams
1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.
2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others)
3. Best record in conference games
4. Best record in common games (minimum of four)
5. Strength of victory in all games
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
9. Best net points in conference games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
Note: When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure if repeated to name the second and third teams.
