Dissecting the Draft Possibilities
The game against the Tennessee Titans against the Houston Texans on Sunday will have no playoff implications for the Miami Dolphins, but it will affect their 2021 draft in a big way.
Tennessee and the Dolphins are among the five AFC playoff contenders with a 10-5 record heading into Week 17, but the Dolphins will be in with a victory at Buffalo on Sunday and would lose a tiebreaker to the Titans with a loss at Buffalo.
But the Dolphins, as everyone knows by now, own the Texans' pick as the result of the 2019 trade involving tackle Laremy Tunsil and it could wind up being as high as the third overall pick or as low as the ninth pick depending on the outcome of the Tennessee-Houston game.
And this where the Dolphins clearly will be rooting for the Titans.
If Tennessee, which opened as 7-point favorites, wins at Houston on Sunday, that will give the Dolphins the third or fourth overall pick in the next draft.
Jacksonville already has secured the first overall pick and the New York Jets will be picking second after winning their past two games.
Houston currently is tied with Atlanta for the third-worst record in the NFL at 4-10 and is higher in the draft order at the moment based tiebreaker of strength of schedule (the lower the opponents' combined winning percentage, the higher the pick).
Houston's opponents currently have a .542 winning percentage, compared to .550 for the Falcons.
Based on the Week 17 schedule, the lowest Atlanta's opponent winning percentage can go is .547, with a final record of 140-116. The highest the Texans' opponent winning percentage can reach is .549 (140-115-1).
But if either Seattle (which clinched the NFC West title by defeating the Rams on Sunday) wins against the 49ers or Dallas defeats the New York Giants, then the Falcons' opponent winning percentage couldn't go lower than .551 — clinching the No. 3 pick for the Dolphins in the event of a Houston loss.
Even if Seattle and Dallas both lose Sunday, the Dolphins still would secure the third pick unless the following three things happened: New England wins its final two games — at home against Buffalo on Monday night and at home against the New York on Sunday — and Kansas City (which already has clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs) defeats the L.A. Chargers.
Now, if the Texans wind up upsetting Tennessee, the Texans would move to 5-11 and that pick could fall below the two teams that are 4-10-1 and all other 5-11 teams other than Denver (assuming the Broncos lose at home against Las Vegas).
That's how that pick could wind up falling all the way down to ninth overall.
None of the teams currently at 4-10-1 or 5-10 face each other, hence the potential big drop in the event of a Houston win. Those teams, in their current draft order, are Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit, the New York Giants, Carolina and Denver.
If the Dolphins do end up with the third (or fourth) overall pick and also make the playoffs, they'll become the first team in 18 years to get a top five pick following a playoff season, per NFL Research.
So, to recap, from a draft perspective, the Dolphins will get the third overall pick if:
-- Houston loses against Tennessee
and any of the following:
-- Seattle defeats 49ers
-- Dallas defeats N.Y. Giants
-- New England loses against Buffalo
-- New England loses against N.Y. Jets
-- Kansas City loses against L.A. Chargers.
