Breaking Down and Analyzing Various National Dolphins Takes
Every NFL analyst has hot takes, and there were three in particular that stood out Monday involving the Miami Dolphins.
One was very complimentary, one not so much, and one somewhere in between.
Let's break them down.
Tannenbaum High on Dolphins Playmakers
We'll start with the complimentary point, which came from former Dolphins Vice President of Football Operations Mike Tannenbaum.
"These are the teams that have premium talent at all 3 position groups looked at within our 'weapons' discussion," Tannenbaum wrote. "They have at least 2 receivers on their team that can be WR1, with great depth at the RB and TE position. Some players on this tier are familiar faces in new places ((Tyreek) Hill and (Davante) Adams), as well as the play-making group that helped bring the Bengals to the Super Bowl.":
For the Dolphins, the two receivers who could be WR1 obviously are Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and the depth at running back involves Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds and Myles Gaskin and that at tight end features Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, Adam Shaheen, Cethan Carter and Hunter Long.
Tannenbaum was a lot less complimentary last week when he ranked each team's starting quarterback, again in seven tiers.
Tua Tagovailoa was one of five quarterbacks who was put in Tier 6, along with Davis Mills, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts.
"Tier 6 are players that you can win with if the situation around them is ideal," Tannenbaum wrote. "They need time in the pocket, a strong game plan, weapons in the backfield and out wide. It is unlikely to see flashes of greatness from these players, but at their best, they will keep their teams in the game. If paired with a strong defense, game plan, protection and weapons, wins can occur, but they must overcome mental mistakes and injuries along the way."
Orlovsky's QB Categories
While Tannenbaum long has been skeptical of Tagovailoa's NFL potential — he said on the record before the draft that Justin Herbert was the better prospect — the same doesn't apply to ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky.
Orlovsky, a former NFL quarterback, often has defended Tua and expressed confidence that he can become elite, but Orlovsky clearly understands that Tua isn't there yet.
It's why Orlovsky had Tua among 10 quarterbacks in his category of "Quarterbacks You Win Games With," a group that included New England 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones.
And, from this vantage point, Orlovsky's assessment is on the mark.
His list of "Quarterbacks You Win Games Because Of" featured 11 names, and where it's not so good for the Dolphins here is that eight of them play in the AFC, including Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.
The other seven were Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes.
Orr's 100 Bold Predictions
At number 70, Orr predicted that Tyreek Hill would have a career-low yards per reception average in his first year with the Dolphins.
"The Dolphins acquired Tyreek Hill to make the quick game more successful. Coach Mike McDaniel will get the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hands as soon as possible on most downs. That means less beautiful, streaking throws to Hill resulting in highlight-worthy touchdowns."
For the record, Hill's career low in receiving average was 9.7, which came during his rookie season in 2016. That actually would be very disappointing because one problem with Jaylen Waddle's great rookie season was that he averaged only 9.8 yards per reception.
Maybe Orr wasn't counting Hill's rookie season, in which case his career low for average per catch was 11.2, which happened last year.
The rationale from Orr makes perfect sense, though, because the plan with Hill certainly figures to be moving the chains more so than just going bombs away.
At number 78, Orr predicted the Dolphins would finish in the top three in the NFL in rushing attempts.
"Mike McDaniel’s compiling of running backs this offseason (Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds) was not an accident. Sure, WR Tyreek Hill will get his opportunities, but this is a system designed to shove the ball down your throat. Have fun solving this fantasy football nightmare."
This probably would end up being good news for the Dolphins because teams don't tend to run as much when they're trailing.
Orr's two predictions indirectly connected to the Dolphins involved the return to prominence of the fullback position, and Zach Wilson finished second in the AFC East in touchdown passes.
There's a couple of ways of looking at that last one, starting with the idea that predicting the Dolphins will run the ball a lot might decrease opportunities to throw touchdown passes. But Orr follows his comment about Wilson being likely to make a big improvement in 2022 with a suggestion that it might be Mac Jones who ends up being the second-best quarterback in the division (behind Josh Allen obviously).
Left out in that entire conversation is Tagovailoa, which certainly follows along with the idea that the Dolphins quarterback still has skeptics he needs to win over.
