Why This 8-3 Is So Different
It doesn't take much studying to realize the Miami Dolphins are in a much better position right now than at this same time last season even though the record is identical.
All it takes is a quick look at the AFC East standings, which show the Dolphins with a 2.5-game advantage over the second-place Buffalo Bills after the two teams were tied with that 8-3 record in 2022.
This marks the first time the Dolphins are in first place in their division through 11 games since 2002 when they were 7-4, but their three-game cushion in the loss column this year is their largest at this time of the season since way back in 1984 when they started 11-0 on their way to their fifth and most recent Super Bowl appearance.
It's also the first time any team other than New England has had a three-game lead in the loss column through 11 games since 1991 when the Buffalo Bills had that on their way to their second of four consecutive trips to the Super Bowl.
It's the ninth time since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978 that the Dolphins have compiled at least eight wins in their first 11 games, and they have made the playoffs each time they've started 8-3 or better.
That includes last year when they survived a five-game skid and earned a wild-card berth with a final 9-8 record.
But here's why the Dolphins aren't going to stumble to the finish — at least shouldn't — this time.
THE REMAINING SCHEDULE
The Dolphins arrived at their 8-3 record last year riding a five-game winning streak but also headed into the meat of the schedule, starting with a three-game road trip against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills.
By contrast, the Dolphins' next three games this time are against teams with a combined 12-22 record and they will be favored by double digits or close to it against the Washington Commanders, the Tennessee Titans and the New York Jets.
And one thing the Dolphins certainly have demonstrated this season is the ability to take care of business against inferior opponents, with a 20-13 decision against the Las Vegas Raiders their only victory against a sub-.500 opponent that featured a single-digit margin.
Simply taking care of those three opponents would move the Dolphins to 11 victories, a plateau they haven't reached since the 2008 season — which, coincidentally or not — is the last time they won the AFC East title.
HEALTHIER DOLPHINS
This might be a jarring sub-head in the aftermath of the season-ending Achilles injury that Jaelan Phillips suffered in the 34-13 victory against the Jets on Friday, but the Dolphins overall are in much better shape health-wise than at this time last year.
By this time last season, the Dolphins already had lost four defensive contributors — Emmanuel Ogbah, Nik Needham, Brandon Jones and Trey Flowers — for the season. While none of them was as impactful as Phillips was this season, that's still a fairly sizable difference in numbers.
More importantly, Tua Tagovailoa had sustained one concussion (at least) and missed two-plus games last season and he hasn't missed a snap this season, outside of those end-of-game plays after the Dolphins have had victories secured.
A BETTER-BALANCED TEAM
The bottom line here is the Dolphins are a better 8-3 team in 2023 than in 2022, and the defense is the reason.
Sure, the offense remains ranked No. 1 in the NFL and it's absolutely an explosive group, but it's not that much more ahead of last year's team.
The same can't be said for the defense, which is ranked seventh in total yards allowed now with a 305.2-yard average, compared to 343.4 through 11 games last season.
Perhaps more importantly, it's a much more difficult team to run against, as evidenced by the fact that no team since the opener against the Chargers has rushed for more than 108 yards against Miami. In the first 11 games of 2022, five teams had topped that mark.
Even without Phillips, the personnel on defense is better because Bradley Chubb is back to being prime Bradley Chubb after never being quite right last year after he arrived in the trade with Denver, but more significantly because of the addition of Jalen Ramsey to the secondary.
THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE DOLPHINS
It's not just that the Dolphins look like a better team than they were at this time last year, even with the same record, it's that the rest of the AFC doesn't look as good that should get their fans pumped up at the possibilities for the rest of the season and the playoffs.
While K.C. very well might end up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC (again, sigh), the Chiefs simply look more vulnerable than they did in 2022 and the Dolphins easily could have won when the teams met in Germany in Week 9.
Cincinnati has been all but knocked out of contention after Joe Burrow went down, Jacksonville is an 8-3 team that doesn't feel like an 8-3 team, Pittsburgh always finds a way to win but doesn't seem like a Super Bowl threat, and Buffalo is just having one of those seasons where the Bills just find a way to lose close game after close game.
The big question heading into the final six games of the 2022 season was how well the Dolphins would fare in their three-game gauntlet, and they didn't meet the challenge.
The biggest question this time is whether the Dolphins can beat an elite team — let's describe that as a team with a winning record at the time of the game — and they'll get their shot against Dallas in Week 16, Baltimore in Week 17 and maybe Buffalo in Week 18.
And given they could have beaten the Chiefs and they were driving for a game-tying score early in the fourth quarter at Philadelphia, the Dolphins have shown they can compete against the big boys.
It's the final, and maybe biggest, reason this 8-3 record feels so much different than the 2022 8-3 record.
