Can Dolphins Became Latest Sixth Seed Success Story?
How often have we heard about home-field advantage in the weeks and days leading up to the start of the NFL playoffs? Well, in the case of the game between the No. 3 and No. 6 seeds, recent history suggests it's really not that big a deal.
This is relevant to the Miami Dolphins because they will enter those 2023 playoffs as the sixth seed in the AFC for the fifth time since the field in each conference was increased from five in 1990 (it remained at six until 2020 when a seventh team was added).
The numbers actually are staggering.
THE HISTORY OF SIXTH SEEDS IN THE NFL PLAYOFFS
In the 33 seasons with at least six teams in each conference in the playoffs, the No. 6 seed has a very respectable 30-36 overall record against the No. 3 seed in the first-round matchup.
We're also currently on a streak of six consecutive playoffs with at least one No. 6 seed winning its first-round playoff game, including three playoffs where both sixth seeds upset the third-seeded team.
That rundown since 2017:
-- 2017: No. 6 Atlanta over No. 3 L.A. Rams
-- 2018: No. 6 Indianapolis over No. 3 Houston; No. 6 Philadelphia over No. 3 Chicago
-- 2019: No. 6 Tennessee over No. 3 New England; No. 6 Minnesota over No. 3 New Orleans
-- 2020: No. 6 Cleveland over No. 3 Pittsburgh; No. 6 L.A. Rams over No. 3 Seattle
-- 2021: No. 6 San Francisco over No. 3 Dallas
-- 2002: No. 6 N.Y. Giants over No. 3 Minnesota
There have been two teams win a Super Bowl title as a No. 6 seed: the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 2010 Green Bay Packers.
Additionally, five other sixth-seeded teams made it as far as the conference championship game, including both Baltimore and Philadelphia. It also happened in 2010 with the New York Jets, 2019 with the Tennessee Titans and most recently in 2021 with the San Francisco 49ers.
That 2021 49ers team, of course, included Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator and running backs Raheem Mostert (on IR) and Jeff Wilson Jr.
THE DOLPHINS AS THE SIXTH SEED
The last time the Dolphins went into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the AFC was in 2016 when they face third-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium (then called Heinz Field) and left with a 30-12.
The Dolphins are 1-3 in their four playoff games as a sixth seed, the one victory coming in 1999 on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. That 20-17 comeback victory ended up being the last win of Dan Marino's Hall of Fame career.
The Dolphins also lost at Buffalo in 1995 (37-22) and at New England in 1997 (17-3).
As a reminder, the Dolphins were the seventh seed in the AFC last year when they traveled to Buffalo and left with a 34-31 loss. The No. 7 seed is 0-6 since it was added in 2020, and the Dolphins' margin of defeat is the only one in single digits other than the Colts' 27-24 loss in 2020 — also against the Bills.
The seventh seeds this year are Pittsburgh and Green Bay, and precedent says they both will lose this weekend.
As the sixth seed, historical data says the Dolphins — as well as the Los Angeles Rams, playing at Detroit in the 3-6 matchup in the NFC — have more than a fighting chance.
