The Truth Behind the Dolphins Slide ... And Where Tua Really Will Help
The return of Tua Tagovailoa has created a buzz around the Miami Dolphins, and for good reason considering how well the third-year quarterback was playing before he was sidelined by his scary-looking concussion.
The hope is that his return will spark the offense and help end the three-game slide that has made the team's invigorating 3-0 start feel like a distant memory.
But it would be a mistake to suggest Tua's return automatically will fix all the problems and the Dolphins will get rolling, though a softer upcoming schedule also clearly will help (more on that later).
Tua himself understands that.
"I've just got to be myself," Tagovailoa said. "I’m not the savior of this team. I don’t just come in and we start winning games. It’s a team deal. The defense gets us stops, the offense goes and puts points on the board, and the defense can help put points on the board as well as special teams. So for me, I just look at it as coming into this this week, just be myself. Don’t try to force anything. Don’t try to make plays that aren’t there be there. Just give our playmakers the ball and let them go to work.”
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WHERE TUA'S RETURN SHOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR THE DOLPHINS
As the NFL kicks off Week 7 with the Thursday night game, Tagovailoa stands as the passer rating leader in the league at 109.9, a figure that speaks to his consistency, big-play ability and ability to avoid mistakes.
Those qualities helped the Dolphins average almost 28 points in the three games Tua started and finished, as opposed to the 16-point average in the last three games.
Where Tua really elevated the Dolphins was in third-down situations, where his eye-popping 143.5 passer rating helped the team convert at an impressive 48.5 percent clip. That figure would rank third in the entire NFL behind the two teams considered the class of the AFC — the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
In the past three games, the third-down conversion rate was 28.6, and that figure would rank next-to-last in the league ahead only of Carolina's 23.6.
The Dolphins also did a much better job of protecting the ball in those games that Tua started and finished, with only two turnovers (both interceptions) in the first three games compared to seven (five picks, two fumbles) in the past three.
But the interesting thing is that for all the explosive plays of the first three games — the fourth-down TD pass to Jaylen Waddle against New England, the two long touchdowns to Tyreek Hill at Baltimore, the bomb to Waddle against Buffalo that set up the game-winning touchdown — the Dolphins offense actually averaged more yards per game in the past three games than the first three (377 to 355.3).
Oh, and the offense actually has more first downs in the past three weeks than the first three (62-60).
Likewise, the defense actually gave fewer yards in the three losses than in the three wins — and by a large margin, an average of 309 in the three losses compared to 413.7 in the three wins.
WHAT WENT WRONG THE PAST THREE GAMES BEYOND THE QB INJURIES
It's in the details and other areas where the Dolphins have gone downhill since that Week 3 victory against the Bills.
Here's a rundown:
-- The field goal kicking: While the numbers are small, Jason Sanders was 2-for-2 in the three wins; he's 5-for-8 in the three losses.
-- Sacks allowed: Six in the three wins, nine in the three losses (the absence of Terron Armstead for most of the Jets game and all of the Minnesota game comes into play here).
-- Penalties: Big difference here with only 16 for 91 yards in the three wins but 27 for 240 yards in the three losses, including five on one nauseating drive against the Vikings.
-- Takeaways: When we mentioned the 83 points scored in the first three games, that included 14 as the result of strip-sacks (Melvin Ingram's TD against New England, and his recovery against Buffalo that set up a 6-yard TD drive). The Dolphins had four takeaways in the first three games, but none in the past three.
So, yes, not having Tua in the lineup for the past two games plus the second half of the Thursday night at Cincinnati hurt. And, yes, the Dolphins are better and more efficient on offense in the lineup.
And, yes, it's not easy for any team to win after having to make a quarterback switch mid-game, which is what the Dolphins faced in their three losses.
But the Dolphins easily could have won any of those games, quarterback injuries or not. They just didn't do the things they were able to do in the first three games, some absolutely produced by Tua but not all of them.
If the Dolphins want to accomplish their goals for 2022, having Tua back could go a long way, but the all-around team game needs to go back to where it was in September.
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