Would the Dolphins Really Consider a QB in First Round?
The biggest offseason topic with the Miami Dolphins clearly concerns the status of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his contract status, specifically whether to sign him to a long-term extension.
And a question often presented as an argument for doing just that is: Who would be the quarterback if not Tua?
FOX Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt came up with this eye-opening answer this week: Michael Penix Jr.
On a podcast episode this week of the appropriately named The Joel Klatt Show, he mocked the University of Washington quarterback to the Dolphins with the 21st pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft.
Klatt boiled down his reasoning to three main points:
-- The cap advantages of avoiding having a quarterback on a second contract.
-- Tua's past concussions.
"Giving Tua a huge deal I think is risky," Klatt said. "I think it's risky. He has been injury-prone outside of (concussions), but that's clearly something that ... from firsthand experience, it doesn't get better. It's not like a ligament. OK, so what ends up happening or happening is less and less of an impact creates more symptoms and a greater degree of those symptoms. So that makes me nervous."
-- His belief that Penix is a better downfield passer than Tua.
"I have said this before, a guy that I could see stepping into that offense with that coach with those weapons and looking like he did in college is Michael Penix. Imagine starting over with a rookie deal at that position, solidifying some of the things that they've got, in particular in their skill position, and having a guy that quite honestly is a better downfield passer than Tua — Penix is a better downfield passer than Tua, ... I'm not saying that like Tua is not going to be in the league but I'm just saying if you're the Dolphins, you've got to really think about this. Yes. You know, Tyreek had a great year. How many times did Tyreek have to adjust on an underthrown ball? Now maybe that's a bad example because the guy is so fast, but it happens a lot. It happens a lot. Meanwhile, the best attribute that Michael Penix has, the No. 1 attribute is his ability to throw with great leverage and accuracy down the field — down the field. Him in that offense to me is like I want to see it. I think it would be amazing."
WHY THIS IS SUCH AN INCREDIBLY LONG SHOT
While there certainly is some merit to the idea of Penix being a good fit for the offense and having a stronger, livelier arm than Tua, there also are many reasons to shoot down that idea as pretty far-fetched.
For starters, the Dolphins have gone out of their way over the past two seasons to praise Tua at every turn and they can point to his statistics (led the NFL in passer rating in 2022, led the league in passing yards in 2023) and the team's relatively decent overall success (20-14 record, two playoff appearances), so it seems unlikely they're ready to move on from him at this point.
Then we should point out that if Tua's injury history would be reason to move on, then we should mention that Penix does not exactly have a clean medical record.
His college resume includes two torn ACLs (same knee) and two shoulder separations (one on each side) during three seasons at Indiana and two at Washington.
One other reason why this doesn't make sense is the Dolphins have been in all-in mode and maybe they could use an immediate starter at another position — say, offensive line — instead of "starting over" at quarterback.
WHY MAYBE IT'S NOT SUCH A CRAZY IDEA
While Klatt suggested that Tua would be moved under his scenario — finding a trading partner willing to deal with his contract issue beyond 2024 might be easier said than done — what about the idea of bringing in Penix to compete with Tua as a rookie?
This would go against the Dolphins model because they've been averse to having QB competitions for a long time now, but maybe this would help Tua raise his game even more.
And also let's remember that high-end quarterbacks always have value.
Even if Penix came in simply to compete with Tua and didn't win the job and the decision later was made to extend Tua, who's to keep Miami from trading Penix at some point.
Remember that the New England Patriots got a second-round pick from San Francisco for Jimmy Garoppolo after he barely played for them. And the Dolphins themselves gave the Philadelphia Eagles a second-round pick now 20 years ago for backup A.J. Feeley because they thought he was starter material (he wasn't).
While we're still of the mind this is highly — very highly — unlikely to happen, it wouldn't be totally unprecedented for the Dolphins. Those old enough remember Dan Marino being the 27th overall pick in the 1983 draft, but what shouldn't be forgotten is that Miami was coming off a season that ended in a Super Bowl loss.
