The Tua-Purdy Similarities and Differences
Super Bowl LVIII will feature an interesting battle of starting quarterbacks featuring the undisputed No. 1 guy at the position against the 2023 stat leader who lacks universal praise.
The first, of course, is Patrick Mahomes and the second is Brock Purdy, and in some ways there are a lot of similarities between Purdy and Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
The biggest one is there are questions around both Tua and Purdy despite their statistical success of the past two seasons. For one thing, the term "game manager" has been used in relation to each quarterback.
But "game manager" or not, Purdy is in the Super Bowl in his second season as the 49ers starting quarterback, and the question is whether the Dolphins are close or on track to reach the Super Bowl themselves with Tua.
It's worth breaking down the numbers with Tua and Purdy beyond the obvious ones to see how they compare and what it might say about the Dolphins' short-term chances, understanding the very important factor that Purdy and the 49ers don't have to overcome anywhere near the gauntlet of top QBs found in the AFC.
Tua and Purdy are the past two leaders in passer rating, though Purdy also would have led the league in 2022 had he played enough games.
Tua led the NFL in passing yards this past season, while Purdy led in average gain per completiion with Tua second.
But here are a bunch of less obvious stats and what they might suggest:
TUA VS. PURDY IN WINS AND LOSSES
2023 passing stats in wins
Tua: 11-0 wins, 23 TDs, 8 INTs, 111.3 rating
Purdy: 12 wins, 28 TDs, 2 INTs, 130.7 rating
2023 passing stats in losses
Tua: six losses, 6 TDs, 6 INTs, 82.5 rating
Purdy: four losses, 3 TDs, 9 INTs, 65.2 rating
2023 passing stats in games decided by 7 points or less
Tua: 4-3 record, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 93.9 rating
Purdy: 1-2 record, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 76.4 rating
Conclusion: What the numbers suggest here is that when Purdy is good, he's real good, but his bad performances are worse than those of Tua. It also would be fair to say the Dolphins could count on Tua a lot more in close games.
TUA VS. PURDY AT CRUNCH TIME
2023 December/January passing stats
Tua: 3-3 record, 7 TDs, 4 INTs, 95.6 rating
Purdy: 4-1 record, 12 TDs, 5 INTs, 114.5 rating
2023 passing stats on third down
Tua: 63.7 completion %, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 102.5 rating
Purdy: 60.4 completion %, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 100.1 rating
2023 passing stats In the fourth quarter
Tua: 60.4 completion %, 4 TDs, 3 INTs, 75.9 rating
Purdy 67.0 completion %, 10 TDs, 3 INTs, 123.8 rating
Passing stats when trailing with less than 4 minutes to go
Tua: 56 completion %, 1 TD, 1 INT, 67.8 rating
Purdy: 58.8 completion%, 0 TD, 1 INT, 68.5 rating
Passing stats against playoff teams
Tu: 1-5 record, 7 TDs, 6 INTs, 84.1 rating, 0 games over 100 rating
Purdy: 5-2 record, 14 TDs, 5 INTs, 107.6 rating, 4 games over 100 rating
Conclusion: This is where, particularly late in the season, in the fourth quarter and against playoff opponents, where Purdy has a big advantage.
TUA VS. PURDY IN ADVANCED STATS
Intended air yards per attempt
Tua: 7.8 average, T-15th in NFL
Purdy: 8.2 average, T-8th in NFL
Completed air yards per attempt
Tua: 4.4 average, 3rd in NFL
Purdy: 5.0 average, 1st in NFL
On-target percentage
Tua: 79.0 percent, 7th in NFL
Purdy: 75.5 percent, T-15th in NFL
Bad throw percentage
Tua: 14.3 percent, T-8th in NFL
Purdy: 16.3 percent, T-21st in NFL
Passes dropped percentage
Tua: 4.4 percent, T-19th most in NFL
Purdy: 2.1 percent, 32nd in NFL
Conclusion: These numbers clearly indicate that Tua was more accurate than Purdy and also got less help from his teammates in terms of catching the ball, though it was Purdy who threw down deeper downfield on average.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The statistical evidence would seem to suggest there's not much difference between Tua and Purdy, except when it comes to performing in the clutch.
And, sure enough, Purdy was able to lead the 49ers to comeback victories in each of their first two playoff games — against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions — to advance to the Super Bowl.
Without question, Purdy has the benefit of being surrounded by what probably is the most talented and deepest roster in the NFL and the Dolphins have some catching up to do to reach 49ers level.
If they do or can come close to doing that, it then will be up to Tua to deliver in the clutch for the Dolphins to find themselves where the 49ers are right now.
