Early Forecast for Dolphins UFAs
The free agency fun around the NFL doesn't begin until the middle of March, and the Miami Dolphins are going to have a lot of work to do before then when it comes to deciding which of their own players they want to re-sign.
The Dolphins entered the offseason with 27 players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents with the start of the new league year, including 21 who were on the 53-man roster when the team faced the Buffalo Bills in the wild-card playoffs.
The list is headed by tight end Mike Gesicki, who played the 2022 season on the franchise tag, backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and veteran edge defender Melvin Ingram.
Excluding Gesicki, the Dolphins re-signed nine of their own UFAs last offseason, and that number easily could be matched, if not topped, this year.
As is the case every offseason, contract demands and salary-cap realities will play a role in which players end up back with the Dolphins next season, but we still can offer an early forecast on the likelihood of return or departure for those 27 players.
DOLPHINS UFAs WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RETURNING
CB Nik Needham — Needham returned to the Dolphins in 2022 after signing his tender as an RFA, but then saw his season cut short by an Achilles injury. While he's a good ascending player, the injury won't help his market value and the Dolphins can use cornerback help.
RB Raheem Mostert — Head coach Mike McDaniel referenced his relationship with Mostert several times during his first year in Miami and Mostert had some really good moments in 2022.
P Thomas Morstead — Morstead provided a major upgrade in the punting game for the Dolphins and he's made clear he wants to stay in Miami.
WR Trent Sherfield — Why would Sherfield want to leave after going from being mostly a special teams player in San Francisco to the clear third wide receiver behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle?
WR River Cracraft — Like Sherfield, Cracraft carved a role in Miami that he might find difficult to get with another team.
DOLPHINS UFAs WITH MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF RETURNING
LB Duke Riley — The Dolphins re-signed four off-the-ball linebackers in free agency last year, and all of them again are now free agents. It's really difficult to envision a scenario where all four — Riley, Elandon Roberts, Sam Eguavoen and Brennan Scarlett (UFA after ending last season on the practice squad) — are-signed. Riley is a core special teams player, which might earn him a return ticket.
LB Elandon Roberts — Roberts amazingly signed a one-year contract with the Dolphins each of the past three offseasons, and he's coming off a solid performance in 2022, even though his game does have limitations.
S Clayton Fejedelem — Fejedelem has special teams value, which could lead to his return.
LB Sam Eguavoen — Eguavoen could return at the right price because of his special teams work.
DT John Jenkins — The veteran provides solid depth in the middle of the defensive line at a reasonable price.
T Brandon Shell — Shell did a solid job for the Dolphins after replacing Austin Jackson at right tackle and he could return unless Miami wants to give Jackson his job back without a challenge.
CB Justin Bethel — Bethel is a pro's pro who had a very good season on special teams and as a fill-in cornerback.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. — The Dolphins will have to ask themselves whether they want to run it back with the same group of backs or look for an upgrade.
LB Andrew Van Ginkel — This always has been a favorite of ours, a guy who seems to make a lot of plays despite not getting as much playing time as others on defense. The Dolphins would be wise to bring him back, though it could be that he looks elsewhere for a bigger role.
RB Myles Gaskin — After leading the team in rushing in 2020 and 2021, Gaskin fell to fourth at the position last year and likely would look for a bigger role elsewhere, though he might have a hard time finding it.
T Kendall Lamm — Signed late in the season, Lamm ended up sustaining an ankle injury in his only game (and start) for the Dolphins. Maybe the Dolphins decide to bring him back for depth at a bargain price.
DT Justin Zimmer — Zimmer never really got a chance to get going in 2022 and may be worth another look.
DOLPHINS UFAs WITH LOW LIKELIHOOD OF RETURNING
TE Mike Gesicki — Gesicki said all the right things on locker cleanout day about wanting to come back, but the Dolphins aren't going to offer a big contract to a player whose role greatly diminished in his fifth NFL season. Gesicki clearly is a better fit for offenses other than what the Dolphins run.
QB Teddy Bridgewater — This has nothing to do with ability, but Bridgewater not finishing either of his two starts and then being sidelined for the season finale and the playoff game pretty much closed the door on a return to Miami because you can't have a QB with durability concerns backing up a starter with durability concerns.
S Eric Rowe — Rowe has had his moments during his time in Miami, but his role on defense gradually decreased and he's looking at a pay cut after averaging $4.9 million on his last Dolphins contract.
LB Melvin Ingram — It's almost hard to remember that Ingram was selected as the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for September because he was awfully quiet down the stretch. Way too quiet for somebody who was getting paid $4 million.
LB Trey Flowers — Flowers never really got much of a chance to contribute to the defense after landing on IR with a foot injury, though we'd say he maybe would have more of a chance of returning than Ingram.
T Eric Fisher — The Dolphins had a good idea in trying to pick up an established veteran to help out the O-line late in the season, though the idea was spoiled because of Fisher's calf injury. Where his career stands out is anyone's guess.
T Greg Little — Little got his shot at being a starter after injuries hit the offensive line, but his play was underwhelming enough that the Dolphins essentially chose practice squad elevation Lester Cotton over him for the playoff game.
TE Adam Shaheen — The Dolphins already got rid of Shaheen, though he returned to spend all of 2022 on IR after a physical with Houston revealed a torn ACL. It's difficult to envision the Dolphins revisiting the idea of using Shaheen, who also might not want to stick around a team that already traded him.
T Geron Christian — The Dolphins have enough young offensive linemen.
G/C Michael Deiter — It's impossible to imagine Deiter having a great desire to return to the Dolphins after he played nothing but special teams the whole season despite a slew of injuries on the offensive line that created starting opportunities at every position except for center.
