Updating the AFC Playoff Picture after Raiders Loss
The wacky Thursday night game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders turned out to be a good one for the Miami Dolphins.
The Chargers' 30-27 overtime victory on Justin Herbert's quarterback sneak to answer a Raiders field goal was helpful in terms of the AFC playoff race but realistically more so when it comes to the 2021 NFL draft.
The reason is simple: The Raiders never really looked like the biggest impediment to the Dolphins' ability to return to the playoffs since the 2016 season, particularly given the likelihood Miami would have to win at Las Vegas regardless.
No, the real problematic teams for the Dolphins are the Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.
Let's start by repeating that the Dolphins, who currently hold the seventh position in the AFC standings, will not have to worry about getting any outside help if they can win their final three games — against the Patriots, Raiders and Buffalo Bills.
It also should be noted that the Dolphins' chances to make the playoffs if they go 1-2 down the stretch are no better than 10 percent regardless of other outcomes around the AFC, according to fivethirtyeight.com.
So basically it means the Dolphins have to win at least two of their final three games to have a realistic shot to make the playoffs, and that's where the Browns, Colts and Ravens come in.
Cleveland and Indianapolis both are 9-4, but the Browns' next two games are against the Giants (5-8) and Jets (0-13), while the Colts have the Texans (4-9) and Jaguars (1-12) among their final three games.
Let's just the odds are Cleveland and Indianapolis finishing with fewer than 11 victories aren't great.
But for the sake of covering all the bases, let's examine the scenarios where either the Browns or Colts (or both) end up at 10-6 by losing two of their final three.
The Dolphins didn't face either team this season, so the head-to-head tiebreaker doesn't apply.
When it comes to the Colts, it's good news for the Dolphins because if Indy ends up 10-6, its conference record will end up being 6-6 and the Dolphins will beat that with their 7-5.
The Dolphins also would beat Cleveland in a tiebreaker at 10-6 if the Browns' two losses were to come against the Jets (highly unlikely) and Steelers, again because of conference record. If the Browns finish 10-6 and one of their two losses comes Sunday night against the Giants, then Miami and Cleveland both would be 7-5 in conference play.
The next tiebreaker is common games (minimum of four) and the Dolphins and Browns will have four of them with the Bengals, Jets and Raiders. The Dolphins currently are 3-0 in those games, while the Browns are 2-1 with a loss against Las Vegas.
So the Dolphins could clinch that tiebreaker if one of their two remaining victories (remember, this is under the scenario where they finish 10-6) by defeating the Raiders next Saturday night.
Finally, if the Browns and Dolphins finish 10-6 and each have a 7-5 conference record and a 3-1 record in common games, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, and that's currently in Cleveland's favor (.363 opponents combined winning percentage to .281).
That takes us to Baltimore, which is now tied with the Dolphins after its also-wacky Monday night victory at Cleveland.
The Dolphins have a one-game lead in the first wild-card tiebreaker, conference record, which is why they'll get in at 11-5 no matter what Baltimore does.
But there's little margin for error because the Ravens' closing schedule includes the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals and their combined 8-30-1 record.
So if the Dolphins go 2-1, they'll need for Baltimore to lose at least one game, and the one game would have to be either against the Jaguars or Bengals. Otherwise, Baltimore almost assuredly would get the tiebreaker on the basis of strength of victory.
To recap where the Dolphins stand heading into their final three games:
-- They go 3-0, they're in.
-- They go 2-1, they likely will need Baltimore to lose to either the Jaguars or Bengals, or hope the Browns or Colts are on the wrong end of a major upset.
-- They go 1-2, their chances of making the playoffs are no better than 10 percent.
-- They go 0-3, they will not make the playoffs.
When it comes to the draft, what was significant Thursday night wasn't the Raiders loss but rather the Chargers win (if that makes sense). The Chargers now are 5-9, which improved the Houston Texans first-round pick, which of course belongs to the Dolphins.
The Houston pick now is seventh overall, according to thankathon.com. The Dolphins' own first-round pick is the 21st.
