The Dolphins and the AFC Playoff Picture
The loss against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs no doubt was disappointing for the Miami Dolphins, but the spirited comeback they mounted was encouraging in the big picture for the organization.
In the short-term view of their playoff chances for 2020, it was a damaging loss, sure, but definitely not one that was devastating.
The Dolphins, to use the popular phrase, control their own destiny because they will make the playoffs by winning out because of what would become their 8-4 conference record.
In a best-case scenario, the Dolphins actually could clinch a playoff spot as early as Week 16, according to fivethirtyeight. For that to happen, the Dolphins would have to win their next two games against the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders combined with a loss Monday night by the Baltimore Ravens against the Cleveland Browns.
Even if the Ravens win at Cleveland, the Dolphins (per fivethirtyeight.com) still would have a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs with victories in their next two games.
The problem, if you follow the fivethirtyeight model, is that the Dolphins have only a 46 win probability percentage in the game at Las Vegas, following a 55 WPP against the Patriots.
The number for the Vegas game certainly can be debated in light of the Raiders' current stretch of three losses in four games, with the only victory being the miracle against the Jets, and the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther on Sunday night.
Based on the fivethirtyeight projections, the Dolphins' odds of making the playoffs would go down to 16 percent with a loss against New England — even if the Ravens lose on Monday night.
Losses against both the Pats and Raiders would leave the Dolphins' playoff chances at less than 1 percent.
When it comes to the AFC East race, the Dolphins now are two games behind Buffalo following the Bills' Sunday night victory against Pittsburgh. Buffalo can clinch the AFC East title Saturday with a victory against the Denver Broncos because the best the Dolphins could do then would be matching their final record at 11-5.
Under that scenario, which includes the Dolphins winning at Buffalo, the teams would have identical 4-2 division records but the Bills would get the tiebreaker by virtue of a better record in common games (6-2 to 5-3).
So at this point, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Dolphins are shooting for a wild-card berth. We'll know more about their chances after the Week 14 Monday night game, but it's the next two weeks that truly will be revealing.
