Dolphins Week 4 Opponent Breakdown: Buffalo Bills
The Miami Dolphins will look to move to 4-0 for the first time since 1995 when they face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday.
The Dolphins haven't won at Buffalo since 2016 when they recorded a 34-31 overtime victory in Week 16 on their way to the playoffs.
The Bills, who have won the AFC East title the past three seasons, will enter the game with a 2-1 record after their 37-3 victory against the Washington Commanders last Sunday.
To get some answers on five major questions related to the Broncos, we turned to Tim Graham, a writer for The Athletic.
1. After the panic caused by the Monday night loss against the Jets in Week 1, how far away (if at all) are the Bills from their peak form of 2022?
TG: As much as the Commanders were considered a feel-good story entering Week 3 and their defensive line is considered elite, the Bills need to handle a better opponent before I can say they're 2022-caliber. Sean McDermott's defense has been superb, allowing only two touchdowns through three games, but he hasn't seen anything like the Bills are about to face Sunday. I know that taking an "It's too early to say" attitude will be viewed as a cop-out, but, on both sides of the ball, the Bills have too many questions to answer. They did get beat by Zach Wilson, after all.
2. The Bills are ranked second in the NFL in total defense despite Von Miller being on PUP; what has been the biggest key to the success so far?
TG: Buffalo's interior defensive line has been fabulous and underrated because of all the splash plays being made at other positions. Although two long Breece Hall runs in the opener and a Raiders end-around in Week 2 have dinged the rushing numbers, defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones have anchored a unit — with Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle rotating — that creates havoc without blitzing much. They held rushing king Josh Jacobs to minus-2 yards on nine carries. Pro Football Reference shows the Bills have the third-lowest blitz percentage at 17.8 percent, but the Bills rank second with 12 sacks, tied for third with 25 QB hits and first with seven interceptions.
3. How do you envision the Bills trying to deal with the Dolphins' speed on offense, namely in terms of a specific game plan?
TG: Eye discipline is a critical point of emphasis McDermott is making this week. All the motion and pres-nap hocus-pocus Miami applies can make a cornerback's knees knock, and all it takes is one defender to think one second too long for Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle to sprint the distance. Buffalo has one of the NFL's best safety tandems in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, although they are in their 30s and have gotten torched after taking a bad pursuit angle here or there. Buffalo has a third safety at their disposal and could use them all at the same time to make sure they keep all the action in front of them. Taylor Rapp started for the Los Angeles Rams their Super Bowl season and likely will be deployed in ways we haven't seen through the first three games against pedestrian quarterbacks. Bills top cornerback Tre'Davious White looks totally recovered and confident on his reconstructed knee, but sophomore cornerback Christian Benford might need some help.
4. Where do you feel Josh Allen stands with his game right now and how hard do you think it's going to be for him to not trying to do it all against the Dolphins given the magnitude of the game?
TG: Allen has been fascinating to watch so far. Through six seasons, it was clear he's hardwired to run physically when a play breaks down. That's what has made him so dangerous. It's a big part of why he's on the cover of "Madden NFL 24." But the Bills don't want him to take so many hits and have been trying to coach that aspect out of his game. Defenses are breathing a sigh of relief, but the Bills want their franchise quarterback to remain viable for years upon years to come. In the opener, you could practically see him thinking through plays in which he could have run, but threw instead. Allen ran only three times against the Raiders. Then, last Sunday against the Commanders, he ran three times again -- but for 46 yards and a touchdown. The past two weeks he has completed 51 of his 69 throws for 492 yards and four TDs with one interception, two sacks and zero fumbles.
5. How do you think the Bills look at this game?
TG: It must be difficult to not think about "70" all week. That's a big, fat, round, unusual, intimidating scoreboard number. The Bills need to push it out of their heads, consider the Broncos performed like a Conference USA program and remember they've played the Dolphins incredibly well since Allen arrived. True, Skylar Thompson nearly won a playoff game in Orchard Park last winter, but the Bills were on emotional fumes after Damar Hamlin nearly died. The Bills are a confident bunch, barely flinching after the Jets loss. They're favored Sunday. I don't think they're going to wet themselves at the sight of Tua Tagovailoa, but we'll see how they feel around 4 p.m.
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