Oddsmakers Set Expectations on Tua

First-round pick Tua Tagovailoa will bring high expectations with him to Miami, but the questions remains what kind of contributions he can make as a rookie. Oddsmakers have set the bar pretty high.
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The Dolphins are hoping for big things for Tua Tagovailoa, mainly that he'll be their franchise quarterback for years to come.

That's why they made him the fifth overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, only the fourth time since the start of the common draft in 1967 they used a No. 1 pick on a quarterback.

While first overall pick Joe Burrow likely will start right away from the Bengals, particularly after the team released veteran Andy Dalton on Thursday, the outlook isn't as clear for Tagovailoa.

For one thing, the Dolphins have returning team MVP Ryan Fitzpatrick on the roster. And then there's the issue of Tagovailoa's surgically repaired right hip.

Less than a week after the end of the 2020 draft, there's no clear-cut answer as to exactly when Tagovailoa will get into the starting lineup, which makes it difficult to predict what kind of stats he'll put up.

That, of course, won't stop oddsmakers from projecting Tua's 2020 numbers.

The over/under on Tagovailoa's passing yards in 2020 was set at 3,200 on Tuesday by BetOnline. It also had Tagovailoa's over/under for touchdowns at 19.5 and his interceptions at 15.5.

Earlier this week, Bovada made Tagovailoa an underdog to start in Week 1, with odds of plus-190 for yes and minus-290 for no.

For historical comparison, Ryan Tannehill is the only one of the first three Dolphins quarterbacks drafted in the first round to start the opener his rookie season. Tannehill finished that rookie season with 3,294 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

Bob Griese, the fourth overall pick in the 1967 draft, threw for 2,005 yards with 15 touchdowns and 18 interceptions as a rookie; and Dan Marino, the 28th pick in 1983, finished his rookie season with 2,210 yards with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions in 11 games.

Related: Which way to go on Tua's passing yards prop bet?


Alain Poupart has covered the Miami Dolphins on a full-time basis since 1989. Follow him on Twitter at @apoupartFins.