Kelly: Does Tua Tagovailoa Deserve To Be Viewed As A Top-10 quarterback?

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a dynamic statistical season, but does it warrant him cracking the NFL's top 10 list of QBs?

Is Tua Tagovailoa a top 10 quarterback in the NFL going into this season?

This is a simple question that if we’re being honest, comes down to everyone’s subjective opinion and personal preferences.

However, I caught some flak on a recent podcast for not saying the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback is a top 10 talent at his position.

My counterpart Alain Poupart indicated that he’d put Tagovailoa anywhere from 10-15, and I admittedly took the lazy route by saying he’s a top 15 quarterback.

I based that opinion on a ranking of quarterbacks I did last year, which I simply didn’t revisit a season after Tagovailoa was the NFL’s top-rated passer, and led the league in a number of important analytical stats and metrics.

The truth is, I didn’t want to rank quarterbacks again this year because ... rankings aren’t important, and I’d prefer to let Tagovailoa’s 2023 season play out, and THEN take stock of what he’s shown the world.

I believe 2023 will be Tagovailoa’s “I’M HIM” season, his breakout year, a season where he moves into the upper echelon of the NFL’s quarterback hierarchy. I’ve been predicting that since he was drafted in 2020, and I’d rather watch and enjoy it instead of talk about it.

But, for the sake of owning up to my laziness, I’m going to analyze where I’d group Tagovailoa in the quarterback hierarchy heading into this season.

The main question I’m asking myself when ranking these quarterbacks is: Who would I rather have leading my team — for this exercise it’s the Dolphins — in the 2023 season.

Tagovailoa or him?

Let’s start with the NFL’s elites…

1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Josh Allen
3. Joe Burrow
4. Jalen Hurts

These four quarterbacks are the NFL’s new gold standard, the stratosphere of passers Tagovailoa needs to reach. Considering Burrow and Hurts were his peers on the collegiate level, the only thing that makes me wonder if Tagovailoa can get there is his health and durability because his team has comparable talent to the Bills and Bengals.

The Fallen From Grace Group…

   5. Lamar Jackson

   6. Aaron Rodgers

   7. Matthew Stafford

   8. Deshaun Watson

   9. Dak Prescott

   10. Derek Carr

   11. Kirk Cousins

   12. Russell Wilson

All of these quarterbacks have achieved far more than Tagovailoa during their career. Some have been league MVPs.

They are all on the decline for one reason or another, and have their own issues and agendas to sort out. But they once were among the NFL’s elite, and could get right back there with a good season if they and their team can stay healthy, and the ball bounces just right for them.

We all view Watson, Prescott, Carr, Cousins and Wilson differently, and we can discuss and debate their spot, but in my opinion all four of those quarterbacks would take the talent Tagovailoa has around him and lead the Dolphins to a comparable level of success, if not more.

I put Carr over Tagovailoa because he’s a fourth-quarter killer, a comeback artist.

I put Cousins over Tagovailoa because statistically Cousins has better passing numbers than Allen, and just led the Vikings to a 13-win season.

I put Wilson over Tagovailoa because he was a first-ballot Hall of Fame talent before last season’s Denver disaster. I’m convinced new Broncos coach Sean Payton can help him get back to his glory days.

The We’re Up Next Batch….

   13. Justin Herbert

   14. Tua Tagovailoa

   15. Trevor Lawrence

   16. Kyler Murray

   17. Daniel Jones

   18. Jimmy Garoppolo

   19. Ryan Tannehill

   20. Geno Smith

   21. Justin Fields

   22. Mac Jones

So my final number of Tagovailoa is 14.

I won’t put Tagovailoa over Herbert because Herbert has superior tools. Only a fool won’t admit that. With identical coaching and weaponry, I believe Herbert is the superior talent.

However, give me Tagovailoa’s intangibles over Herbert’s any day.

As for Lawrence, it bothers me a little that he’s often rated higher than Tagovailoa when statistically he’s not even close. But Lawrence does have a playoff win on his resume, and Tagovailoa doesn’t, so I won’t fight too hard if someone argues Lawrence is better.

We can dissect the rest of the We’re Up Next batch, but I’m not sure it’s worth our time.

Everyone in this group is like Tagovailoa. They’ve still got plenty to prove, and will have the opportunity to do so on the field in 2023.