The Dolphins Playoff Picture After the Week 17 Thursday Night Game
The Miami Dolphins still control their fate when it comes to being able to land the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but one of their potential routes to get there disappeared with the Cleveland Browns' victory against the New York Jets on Thursday night.
The Dolphins, of course, already have clinched a playoff berth and will clinch the AFC East title with one victory in their final two games or one Buffalo loss, and they'll clinch the top seed in the conference if they can win both at Baltimore on Sunday and at home against the Buffalo Bills on Jan. 6-7.
The only thing that changed with the Cleveland win is what must happen for the Dolphins to still be able to land that No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs with a win at Baltimore but a loss against the Buffalo.
THE AFC EAST OUTLOOK
With their playoff-clinching victory against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, the Dolphins reduced their magic number to clinch the first AFC East title since 2008 to a simple one, but what complicates things is the Buffalo-Dolphins clash at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 18.
This one is simple: The Dolphins clinch the division title next week with either a victory at Baltimore OR a loss by the Bills at home against the New England Patriots, who improved to 4-11 on the season with their upset at Denver on Christmas Eve.
If one of those two scenarios doesn't materialize, then the division title will go to the winner of the Week 18 rematch because a Miami win would make them two games better in the standings, and a Buffalo win would leave both teams with an 11-6 record and the Bills would have the head-to-head sweep.
Buffalo currently stands in sixth place in the AFC standings, a game ahead of four other playoff contenders but may need the victory against the Dolphins to make the postseason, even with a victory against New England next Sunday.
THE OVERALL AFC PICTURE
The simplest way for the Dolphins to land that coveted AFC top seed — and the first0-round bye that comes with it — still remains for them to win their final two games against Baltimore and Buffalo.
By finishing 13-4 with a victory at Baltimore, the Dolphins would be assured of the top seed for the first since 1984.
For the Dolphins to land the No. 1 seed even with a loss against Buffalo (after a victory against Baltimore), of course, they would need for the Ravens to lose their season finale at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers AND they would need the Cleveland Browns to lose at Cincinnati in Week 18 (since the Jets couldn't get the job done Thursday).
If the Browns finish at 12-5, they would win tiebreakers with either the Dolphins or Ravens at that same record, against the Dolphins because of conference record and against the Ravens because of division record.
Again, though, the Dolphins don't have to worry about the Browns if they defeat Baltimore and Buffalo because only the Ravens could match their 13-4 record and they'd have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
-- Because this is worth mentioning again, the Kansas City Chiefs' stunning loss against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday afternoon eliminated them from contention for the top seed in the conference because the best they can finish is 11-6, and the Dolphins and Ravens already having 11 wins at the time meant one of them was guaranteed to finish with a better record. This means that barring a playoff upset, Patrick Mahomes is looking at playing a playoff game on the road for the first time in his career — after the Chiefs' likely first-round home game.
-- By going 1-1 in their final two games, the Dolphins would assure themselves of no worse than the No. 2 seed.
The Dolphins' victory not only clinched a playoff berth, but it also eliminated the possibility of the them ending as the seventh seed because they're already assured of having one of the best six records in the conference. Of course, the Dolphins also can't be the No. 4 seed because they've already clinched a better record than any team from the AFC South, where Jacksonville, Houston and Indianapolis are tied for first at 8-7.
THE DOLPHINS AND POSSIBLE SEEDS
So let's break it down as best we can as far as how the Dolphins will end up with either the No. 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6 seed.
THE NO. 1 SEED — As discussed before, the easiest and most likely path there is for the Dolphins to win their final two games. The Dolphins cannot get the No. 1 seed without winning at Baltimore (the Ravens clinch the No. 1 seed if they win Sunday). They can do it with a win at Baltimore and a loss at Buffalo, but Baltimore would have to lose its season finale against Pittsburgh and Cleveland would have to lose at Cincinnati in Week 18.
THE NO. 2 SEED — The most likely scenario for this development would be a victory at Baltimore and a loss against Buffalo, but Baltimore still finishing 13-4 OR Baltimore and Cleveland both finishing 12-5. The Dolphins cannot finish lower than No. 2 in the AFC if they win one of their final two games.
THE NO. 3 SEED — The path here is for Miami to lose its final two games and Buffalo to lose against New England and K.C. winning its last two, which would leave the Dolphins with the division title at 11-6 but losing the tiebreaker for playoff positioning against Kansas City because of their loss against the Chiefs in Germany. A potential first-round matchup under that scenario would entail the Bills coming back to Miami for a second consecutive game.
THE NO. 5 SEED — This obviously entails the Dolphins failing to win the division and ending up with an 11-6 record. They then could become the top wild-card seed but Cleveland would get a tiebreaker because of conference record, which means the only way the Dolphins don't win the division title and end up as the fifth seed is if the Browns lose against the Bengals. If the Dolphins end up in this spot, their likely first-round game would be on the road likely against the winner of the AFC South, which currently has a three-way tie at the top.
THE NO. 6 SEED — This again happens only if the Dolphins fail to win the AFC East and Cleveland wins at Cincinnati. And under that scenario, the most likely first-round matchup would be a game at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs because if Buffalo, Miami and Kansas City all finish with an 11-6 record, the Bills would have a sweep against the Dolphins and a head-to-head victory against the Chiefs and therefore would get the No. 2 seed. Kansas City then likely would have the No. 3 seed.
REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF CONTENDERS (teams still mathematically alive)
1. x-BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-3) — vs. Miami, vs. Pittsburgh
2. x-MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-4) — at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-6) — vs. Cincinnati, at L.A. Chargers
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-7) — vs. Carolina, at Tennessee
5. x-CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-5) — at Cincinnati
6. BUFFALO BILLS (9-6) — vs. New England, at Miami
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-7) — vs. Las Vegas, vs. Houston
8. HOUSTON TEXANS (8-7) — vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis
9. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-7) — at Seattle, at Baltimore
10. CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-7) — at Kansas City, vs. Cleveland
11. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (7-8) — at Indianapolis, vs. Denver
12. DENVER BRONCOS (7-8) — vs. L.A. Chargers, at Las Vegas
PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES
To break a tie within a division
1. Head-to-head
2. Best record in division games
3. Best record in common games
4. Best record in conference games
5. Strength of victory in all games
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
9. Best net points in common games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
To break a tie for wild-card spots
Two teams
1. Head-to-head, if applicable
2. Best record in conference games
3. Best record in common games (minimum of four)
4. Strength of victory in all games
5. Strength of schedule in all games
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best net points in conference games
9. Best net points in all games
10. Best net touchdowns in all games
11. Coin toss
Three or more teams
1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.
2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others)
3. Best record in conference games
4. Best record in common games (minimum of four)
5. Strength of victory in all games
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
9. Best net points in conference games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
Note: When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure if repeated to name the second and third teams.
