The Dolphins Recipe for their Patriots Success ... And to Keep It Going
It's a tough challenge the Miami Dolphins will face when they travel to Gillette Stadium this weekend, most likely without their starting quarterback, for a key game in terms of their playoff aspirations.
What the Dolphins do have going for them, though, is their recent success against the New England Patriots and Coach Bill Belichick.
Make that unprecedented success.
The Dolphins have won four in a row against the Patriots, starting with their 22-12 victory at Hard Rock Stadium in December 2020, and that happens to be the longest winning for any New England opponent since Belichick became head coach in 2000.
The Dolphins swept the season series last year — winning 17-16 at Gillette Stadium and 33-24 at home — and won the earlier meeting this season with a 20-7 decision at Hard Rock Stadium in the season opener.
It's Miami's longest winning streak against New England since the Dolphins won five in a row from 1999-2001, a streak that included wins in their first three games against Belichick-led Patriots.
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THE KEYS TO THE DOLPHINS SUCCESS AGAINST NEW ENGLAND
There are two common themes in the four Dolphins victories against New England during the streak, and that's the running game and takeaways.
Let's recap:
Dec. 20, 2020, Dolphins 22, Patriots 12: The Dolphins rushed for 250 yards in that game, highlighted by Salvon Ahmed's 122-yard performance. That 250 yards represented the highest total for Miami since the 2016 game at Buffalo when the Dolphins rushed for 261 yards.
Sept. 12, 2021, Dolphins 17, Patriots 16: The Dolphins won this season opener despite being outgained 393-259, thanks largely to Xavien Howard forcing and recovering a fumble inside the Miami 10-yard line with 3:31 left.
Jan. 9, 2022, Dolphins 33, Patriots 24: This one combined both the great running game and takeaways, with Miami rushing for 195 yards and coming up with three turnovers in the season finale. In this one, it was Duke Johnson coming up with a 100-yard individual performance. Oh, and the 195 yards represented the second-highest total since that 2016 game against Buffalo — it was matched this season against Cleveland.
Sept. 11, 2022, Dolphins 20, Patriots 7: Just like the 2021 season finale, the Dolphins again had a 3-0 edge in the turnover battle and their first touchdown of the season came on Brandon Jones' sack-strip of Mac Jones that Melvin Ingram took into the end zone.
CAN. THE DOLPHINS DO IT AGAIN?
For the Dolphins to make it five in a row against New England, the formula figures to remain the same.
Much has been made of Tua Tagovailoa's 4-0 record as a starter against New England, but the reality — proving once again that W/L record is a team stat and not a QB stat — is that his passing yardage numbers against the Patriots are 145, 202, 109 and 270 in the season opener this year.
The Dolphins won that 2022 opener despite scoring only three points in the second half with 123 total yards.
So the most realistic path to a victory in this game — even if Tagovailoa were in the lineup — always figured to be running the ball and creating turnovers on defense.
The latter might not be easy when evaluating each team.
From New England's side, the Patriots were very sloppy with the ball in the first half of the season but have been very good in that department in the second half.
Here's the proof: New England had 15 turnovers in its first seven games; it has five turnovers in its last eight.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have 12 takeaways in seven home games, but only two in eight road games.
When it comes to running the ball, the Dolphins can look to their game at Buffalo for inspiration because they gained 188 yards that night against one of the better run defenses in the NFL.
But New England also fits that category, ranking in the top 10 in both rushing yards allowed per game and per carry. The Patriots also have held their opponent under 100 rushing yards six of the past eight games since they were gashed by Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears to the tune of 243 yards.
One thing for sure: If the Dolphins running game is having success, it would behoove Mike McDaniel to stick with it.
If it doesn't, then this is where Bridgewater needs to show why the Dolphins signed him in the offseason.
This will be his first career start against the Patriots — his teams have faced them twice but he didn't play in either game — and he'll be facing an injury-depleted New England cornerback corps.
However they can do it, though, nobody on the Dolphins is going to care how they win if they can extend their winning streak against New England.
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