Kelly: Taylor Drastically Would Elevate Dolphins Roster
Jonathan Taylor is a finishing move.
In the wrestling and video game world, particularly the one-on-one fighting games, that’s a special attack dedicated to knocking out an enemy that is on the brink of defeat in a spectacular manner.
A finishing move is about adding some style, injecting some sex appeal, providing the sizzle, and that’s exactly what the 2023 Miami Dolphins roster is lacking.
Despite all the additions made this offseason, I’ve now watched enough of this team (minus All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who is likely sidelined with a knee injury until December) to conclude that Miami is a playoff contender.
Not a lock, a contender.
This roster has the talent to produce double-digit wins, but Miami isn’t at the Super Bowl-contending level just yet.
That’s fantasy football talk unless the moon and stars align.
These Dolphins aren’t ready to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won two of the last four Super Bowls, or the Buffalo Bills, the AFC East champions for the past three seasons.
And based on the team and talent base I’m watching daily, I’d expect Miami to struggle with Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals and Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets, especially after last week’s acquisition of Pro Bowl tailback Dalvin Cook.
General Manager Chris Grier can't be watching this team daily and think otherwise.
The AFC is stacked. It’s the home of most of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks, and the Dolphins have a decent roster, but one that’s lacking something.
These Dolphins are missing a finishing move, another weapon in the backfield that keeps opposing coordinators up at night, and that player is Taylor, who sources say the Dolphins have had discussions about acquiring since the Indianapolis Colts allowed his agent, South Florida-based Malki Kawa, to work out the parameters of a trade with other teams.
The Dolphins are interested in Taylor, a 24-year-old who has averaged 5.1 yards per attempt in his 756 career carries, for obvious reasons.
The Dolphins seriously considered drafting him with the 2020 first-round pick the franchise used to select cornerback Noah Igbinoghene, and now have a chance to right a franchise wrong.
The biggest question is whether the deals — plural — can get done, and at what, or whose expense?
What does Jonathan Taylor want?
What would Miami have to send Indianapolis in draft picks and players to acquire Taylor?
And what type of multi-year deal can Miami get done with Taylor to consummate the trade?
Let us start by addressing these questions in order of importance.
To get to the table with Taylor and his agent, Miami would need to hammer out the framework of a new contract for Taylor. Indianapolis’ unwillingness to do so is why that relationship has soured.
This is a similar situation to those in which Miami found itself during the courtship of All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill and pass rusher Bradley Chubb before their deals delivered them to Miami. Both got pace-setting contracts, and Dolphins owner Steve Ross has never shied away from greenlighting those types of deals.
Taylor seemingly intends to help reset the depressed tailback market, which means a contract that pays him $12-14 million a season for the next three years (I only count guaranteed money when hypothesizing deals) is the goal.
What do the Colts want for Taylor?
The Colts likely are requesting a first-round pick, and after they realize that’s an unreasonable request for a tailback with an expiring contract — who is forcing his way out of Indianapolis — the Colts probably would settle on a 2024 second-round pick, and 2025 third-round selection, which is the equivalent of a mid-level first-round pick.
The Dolphins should be willing to send those draft picks to Indianapolis based on the team's recent trade history, but Miami potentially would have the desire to unload some players — talents like Jeff Wilson Jr,, Emmanuel Ogbah or Cedrick Wilson Jr. — to further facilitate the deal.
Moving any of those three players would create some financial relief, which the Dolphins need.
Add Taylor at What Player's Expense?
The Dolphins already are $32 million over the projected cap in 2024 and will have some roster purging and contract restructuring to do next offseason to keep the present roster together if the goal is re-signing more than half a dozen key players who are impending agents.
That could mean Miami must pick between acquiring Taylor now, and signing impending free agents like team captain Christian Wilkins, starting defensive tackle Zach Sieler and offensive linemen Robert Hunt and Connor Williams to multi-year contract extensions.
From where I sit, that’s an easy decision for Miami because Taylor is a top five talent at his position, and Wilkins, Sieler, Hunt and Williams aren't at this time. According to sources, Wilkins is demanding an annual salary that comes close to doubling what Taylor is expected to receive, which is why an extension hasn't been finalized.
Wilkins’ services also can be secured for 2024 by using the franchise tag. While creating that kind of cap space ($22 million) won’t be easy for the Dolphins, his second-year cap numbers would be in the $18-21 million range if he received a multi-year extension in the neighborhood of what Quinnen Williams, Dexter Lawrence and Javon Hargrave got this offseason.
How much better does Taylor make the Dolphins?
If the goal is to put together a complete roster, the starting point would be to improve Miami’s running game, which averaged 6.2 rushing yards below the league average of 102.5 yards per game.
Last season the Dolphins produced the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (99.2) and attempted the second-fewest carries (22.9) per game last season.
That's not ideal for an RPO-based offense, which is supposed to lean heavily on the run game.
A talent like Taylor would take some of the pressure off Tua Tagovailoa because his presence in the backfield would open up the passing game more, and a more reliable run game would help open up the field for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It also would benefit the defense, potentially allowing that unit to rest more if Miami's time of possession increased and the Dolphins had a more efficient short-yardage run game.
The bottom line is, adding a talent like Taylor is a way to improve every aspect of the team, and seizing on this opportunity outweighs the potential cost if the Dolphins are truly living for today — making a Super Bowl run in the next two seasons — and worrying about tomorrow in 2024.
Miami needs to finish off this roster by pulling the trigger on acquiring Taylor, giving this franchise a chance to compete with the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals for AFC supremacy.
