Countdown to Kickoff: Eagles vs. Giants
It’s not a matter of if but when the 11-1 Eagles will officially punch their ticket to the postseason for the second consecutive year under Nick Sirianni.
Sunday’s game at MetLife Stadium against the 7-4-1 New York Giants serves as Philadelphia’s first opportunity to lock down the berth with a win. Even a loss, if accompanied by setbacks by San Francisco and Seattle, would officially punch the playoff ticket.
Philadelphia, though, has much larger goals starting with the No. 1 seed and making sure the road to the Super Bowl runs through Lincoln Financial Field.
To do that, the Eagles have to keep winning and the team is a 6.5-point road favorite against a talent-deficient Giants team that has overachieved under rookie head coach Brian Daboll, a mentor and good friend to Sirianni.
5...PLAYERS TO WATCH
Eagles CB James Bradberry - The former Giants Pro Bowl CB was a salary-cap casualty in the offseason and Howie Roseman gladly pounced. A perfect fit for Jonathan Gannon’s zone-heavy schemes, the savvy Bradberry is having a career season with three interceptions, 14 passes defended (second in the NFL), a 46.0 passer rating allowed (second), and a 45.5% completion percentage allowed (third).
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts - Hurts’ worst game as a starter came at MetLife last season when the QB finished 14 of 31 for 129 yards with three interceptions in a 13-7 loss in which he injured his ankle. Hurts has won 14 of 15 starts since and would like to exorcise the North Jersey demons.
Eagles RB Miles Sander and WR A.J. Brown - Both players could top the 1,000-yard mark this week, with Brown checking in at 950 yards receiving and Sanders having 924 yards rushing.
Giants QB Daniel Jones - The fourth-year QB, once the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 draft, has taken a huge step forward this year by limiting his turnovers and offering Daboll a dual threat.
His 522 rushing yards this season is already a franchise record for most in a single season by a QB. While most believed it was unlikely that Jones would be the NYG QB in 2023 after the organization declined his fifth-year option that narrative has changed.
Giants DL Dexter Lawrence - Lawrence is in the midst of a dominating season with a team-leading and career-high six sacks. He’s one of only seven NFL players with at least 45 tackles and six sacks and is currently graded as Pro Football Focus' No. 2 interior defensive lineman behind only Kansas City's Chris Jones.
4...KEY MATCHUPS
Eagles’ defense vs. Giants’ ball-control approach - The only Eagles' loss this season against Washington was tied to the Commanders’ ability to dominate time of possession and shorten the game. New York is a running team and ranks 10th in the NFL in average time of possession, holding the ball for 30:32 per game.
The turnover ratio - The Eagles have the best turnover ratio in the NFL at plus-13 but the Giants have also been very good with Jones, particularly, taking much better care of the football. New York has an NFL-best 11 fumble recoveries and is plus-3 overall in turnover ratio, good for eighth in the NFL.
Eagles’ CBs vs. Giants’ receivers - Philadelphia’s outside CBs – Bradberry and Darius Slay – are the NFL’s best tandem and the Giants perhaps have the worst WR corps in the NFL with Darius Slayton being the lone big-play threat. On paper, it’s a mismatch and things are trending for Philadelphia slot CB Avonte Maddox to return from a hamstring injury.
Situational football - Wink Martindale could be the most aggressive defensive coordinator in the NFL but he holds his most dangerous blitzes in his pocket for big situations. The Giants' defense is only ranked No. 23 overall but has generally dominated on third downs, allowing a 35.2 conversion rate (sixth in the NFL), and red-zone defense with a 48.9% success rate (fifth).
3...THINGS TO KNOW
-Philadelphia ranks second in the NFL with 42 sacks (tied for the team’s most through 12 games since 1991), trailing only Dallas (48) in that category.
-The Eagles lead the NFL with 23 rushing TDs this year, which is two TDs shy of tying the single-season franchise record
-Philadelphia has dominated the Giants in recent seasons. Dating back to 2008 the Eagles are 22-6 against New York, a .786 winning percentage.
2...X-FACTORS
For the Eagles: CB Avonte Maddox - One of the top slot defenders in the game, Maddox has been sidelined since injuring his hamstring on punt coverage on Nov. 3 in Houston. Josiah Scott has done admirably in Maddox’s absence but the Pitt product’s return would be a big boost for the No. 2 defense in the NFL. The Eagles started Maddox’s 21-day practice window on Wednesday and things are on track for him to be activated this week.
For the Giants: Edge Rusher Azeez Ojulari - Ojulari played in his first game since Week 4 last week and has the skills to form an impressive pair of bookends with rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux when it comes to the pass rush.
1...PREDICTIONS
John McMullen (10-2, 3-9 vs. the spread) - A pie-in-the-sky 6-1 start has since regressed to the mean for a Giants team that still needs to rebuild the roster until being dubbed serious contenders. New York has won just once since Oct. 23 and now stands at 7-4-1, hoping to finish an unlikely run to the postseason with a schedule that has them facing the two top teams in the NFC - Philadelphia and Minnesota - three times over the final five regular-season games.
The path to an upset by New York lies in the Eagles' locker room, however, because even with all the intangible tropes of division games, Hurts' struggles in North Jersey last season, and Barkley magically dominating the game, the only way Philadelphia has a bad trip back down the Jersey Turnpike is by beating themselves.
EAGLES 31, GIANTS 18
Ed Kracz (10-2, 6-6 vs. the spread) - The Eagles' roster is better at every positon, but sometimes the better team doesn't always win.
The Eagles will find a way, though, despite a Giants team that will be desperate to find the win column again, after losing or tying four of ts last five games.
EAGLES 28, GIANTS 17
--John McMullen contributes Eagles coverage for SI.com's Eagles Today and is the NFL Insider for JAKIB Media. You can listen to John, alongside legendary sports-talk host Jody every morning from 8-10 on ‘Birds 365,” streaming live on YouTube. John is also the host of his own show "Football 24/7 and a daily contributor to ESPN South Jersey. You can reach him at jmcmullen44@gmail.com or on Twitter @JFMcMullen
