Countdown to Kickoff: Eagles vs. Packers
You could be in for a changing of the guard on Sunday night in Philadelphia.
The 9-1 Eagles putting the finishing touches on traditional heavyweight Green Bay, which is on life support in the NFC North with an uninspiring 4-7 mark.
Don't expect any trap-game talk this week, however, because the reputation of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers prevents that.
One of the all-time greats at the game's most important position Rodgers is a sleeping giant that needs to be treated as such at all times.
5...PLAYERS TO WATCH
Eagles NT Linval Joseph - Joseph was spectacular in his Eagles’ debut in Indianapolis, grading out as the team’s best overall defender over his 26 snaps, according to PFF. The 34-year-old veteran noted before the game that he wasn’t worried about Week 1 of his comeback but how his body would respond in Week 2. So, here we are.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders - It’s tough to replace a player like Dallas Goedert, who remains out with a shoulder injury, and the Eagles’ noted it would take a village. The village faltered in Indy and Philadelphia is limited at tight end without Goedert while the second-tier receivers are only going to do so much as well. That means restricting things and counting on the three top playmakers – receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and Sanders - needs to be the path forward.
Sanders had only 13 carries and one target in the passing game against the Colts and that needs to increase.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers - Known for elevating the talent around him this is the first time Rodgers, now 38, hasn’t been able to discernibly do that on a consistent basis, something that has many in the NFL crossing their fingers that his reign of terror might be ending.
That said, “a bad year” for Rodgers is being top 10 in TD passes (19, No. 4), passing yards (2,542, No. 6), and completions (243, No. 6). He’s also No. 3 in completions of 20-plus yards with 37, No. 5 in TD passes over 20 with seven and No. 1 with eight multi-TD games.
The good news is that Jonathan Gannon is very familiar with preparing for Rodgers from his time with Minnesota and he will be the last person to assume there has been any slippage. Gannon brought up Rodgers twice without prompting at his weekly press conference.
Packers RB Aaron Jones - The Packers are perceived to be another of the teams in line to want to take advantage of the Eagles’ presumed poor run defense, which is 19th in the NFL allowing 122.2 yards per game on the ground.
Using the film and more advanced metrics, however, Pro Football Focus grades out Philadelphia as a top-10 run defense at No. 9 overall. The disconnect is the Eagles' approach which asks light boxes up front to do their best in an effort to limit explosive passing plays on the back end.
Jones is one of the more underrated backs in the NFL and entered Week 12 eighth in the NFL in rushing with 778 and fifth among RBs in yards per rush at 5.44. He’s also a dangerous receiver on wheel routes and a favorite target of Rodgers.
Packers CB Jaire Alexander - Alexander is one of the best pure coverage cornerbacks in the NFL who has three interceptions and is No. 5 in the NFL with 10 passes defended despite missing two games with injury. There is usually a very small margin of error when throwing the football at Alexander.
4...MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Packers’ third-down defense vs. Eagles’ third-down offense - If you’re looking for the strength vs. strength matchup in this game, this is it. The Green Bay defense has been mediocre overall but top-tier on third downs when it’s time to get off the field, ranking No. 8 in the NFL. The Eagles, of course, are even better than that from an offensive perspective thanks to the dual-threat abilities of Jalen Hurts, ranking No. 4 in the NFL in third-down offense.
Packers’ run defense vs. Eagles’ running game - The Packers are No. 24 in the NFL defending the run, allowing over 135.0 yards per game. That means both Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize.
Packers RB Aaron Jones vs. Eagles LB Kyzir White - Jones is one of the best downfield threats in the passing game as a running back and has the hands to hurt any defense on wheel routes. White is one of the better coverage linebackers in the NFL and needs to be up to the challenge.
Packers’ pride vs. Eagles’ dominance - The Packers aren’t used to being out of the NFC North race by Thanksgiving but they are five games behind the Vikings with six to play. The Eagles meanwhile, are a league-best 9-1 and have a chance to stick the fork in GB..
3...THINGS TO KNOW
-Despite the high-profile nature of these two foes this will be the first time that the Packers and Eagles are matching up on a Sunday night.
-The Packers have won six of the last eight meetings against the Eagles (including playoffs) and the last three in Philadelphia (2016, 2010 playoffs, and 2010). Prior to that, the Eagles had beaten the Pack nine straight times at home between 1974 and 2006.
-Green Bay is 16-4 in primetime games since 2019, a daunting .800 winning percentage that ranks No. 2 in the NFL over that span. Kansas City is a tick ahead at, 17-4 (.810).
2... X-FACTORS
For the Eagles: Slot CB Josiah Scott - The injuries to Goedert and Jordan Davis get mentioned all the time around Philadelphia but the hamstring issue that has AVonte Maddox on injured reserve is too easily dismissed. His replacement, Scott, was Philadelphia's worst-graded defender in Indianapolis and you can bet Rodgers will have No. 33 circled in big spots.
For the Packers: WR Christian Watson - The biggest issue in Green Bay this season has been the lack of trust Rodgers has shown in his young receivers but that’s starting to change with the speedy rookie Watson. The first offensive play of the Packers’ season should have been a 75-yard TD from Rodgers to Watson but the North Dakota State product dropped a perfect throw in the bucket. The dog house followed but Watson has now emerged with five TD receptions over the past two games, the first Green Bay rookie to have multiple TD catches in consecutive games in 68 years.
1... PREDICTIONS
John McMullen (9-1, 3-7 vs. the spread) - Whenever Rodgers appears on the schedule, you generally are going to circle it and that’s the case here despite the perceived down year which can be tied to a banged-up offensive line, young receivers the QB doesn't quite trust, and a defense with too many holes.
The 9-1 Eagles are simply better than the Packers right now but they've also hit a bit of a lull, resulting in their first loss against Washington and a nip-and-tuck win over pedestrian Indianapolis. Rodgers, meanwhile, has started to ramp things up with Watson and it's hard to take anything for granted against this quarterback, who Jonathan Gannon said, "does things that other guys can't do."
That said, It's hard to imagine Philadelphia losing to the Packers with all the issues going on with Green Bay but it's not that difficult to picture another grind-it-out affair as the Eagles try to find their way offensively without Dallas Goedert.
EAGLES, 23, PACKERS 17
Ed Kracz (8-2, 5-5 vs. the spread)
The Packers have an above-average secondary, so the script would be try to get Miles Sanders going early and keep riding him because the Packers are a bit thin on the defensive line and can be worn out.
Defensively, dealing with Rodgers is never easy, but the Eagles can make it more difficult for him by winning on first and second downs and putting him in third-and-long situations when he can be vulnerable to a sack by a unit that has the third-most QB takedowns in the league with 33.
EAGLES 27, PACKERS 16
--John McMullen contributes Eagles coverage for SI.com's Eagles Today and is the NFL Insider for JAKIB Media. You can listen to John, alongside legendary sports-talk host Jody every morning from 8-10 on ‘Birds 365,” streaming live on YouTube. John is also the host of his own show "Football 24/7 and a daily contributor to ESPN South Jersey. You can reach him at jmcmullen44@gmail.com or on Twitter @JFMcMullen
