How do the Atlanta Falcons match up with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers?
On paper, the Green Bay Packers are no better than the Atlanta Falcons.
Yet, when the Falcons travel to Green Bay in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, the Packers will likely be favored.
In 2019, the Falcons finished fifth in the NFL in team offense while the Packers finished 18th. On defense, Atlanta allowed just over 355 yards per game while Green Bay allowed an average of 352 yards.
Based on the stats, the Packers should have finished with a similar, if not worse, record as the Falcons, but the reality is, these two teams are on completely different levels heading into 2020.
Green Bay finished 13-3 in 2019, winning the NFC North on their way to an appearance in the NFC Championship while the Falcons went 7-9. Again.
The identity narrative surrounding these teams couldn’t be more different--Green Bay has neglected the skill positions surrounding Aaron Rodgers, but won 10 or more games in four of the last six seasons.
The Falcons, by contrast, are stacked on offense, but can’t get over the hump of mediocrity.
How is it that a team like the Packers with limited star power outside of Rodgers and Davante Adams can win nearly double the amount of games that the Falcons were able to salvage with a less talented roster?
The answer is simple: poise.
Nine of the Packers' 14 wins including the postseason came by one possession or less. Atlanta went 3-4 in one-score games in 2019.
The Packers made a habit of closing out close games against teams who they shouldn’t have beat while the Falcons couldn’t consistently come through when the game was on the line.
That’s the difference between a top-tier and middle of the road football team.
When the Packers and Falcons face off Week 4 of this season, a perfect storm for a shootout will be brewing, as two high-powered passing offenses will have the chance to tee off on each other in warm early-season conditions.
For Atlanta, the key will be slowing down a potent Green Bay aerial attack led by Adams. The Falcons struggled against the pass last season, giving up 244 yards per game through the air which ranked 22nd in the NFL.
Adams went off for 298 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the NFC playoffs last season. He will be going up against a young and unproven secondary, especially with the departure of cornerback Desmond Trufant.
If the Falcons are to steal a win in Green Bay, they will need to put up points. Luckily, Atlanta’s ability to light up the scoreboard behind the likes of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Todd Gurley bodes well against a Packers’ defense which allowed over 230 yards per game through the air a year ago.
For the Falcons, Week 4 could be a pivotal moment for the outcome of their entire season.
In the three weeks leading up to their tilt at Lambeau Field, Atlanta will face the Seahawks, Cowboys and Bears. In other words, there is a realistic chance the Falcons come into Week 4 with a 1-2 record. With a loss against the Packers, Atlanta could stumble to a 1-3 start.
If the Falcons want to turn it around this season, a road win against the Packers could be crucial.
