Long Day, Short Week: Falcons Face Turnaround Challenge
The biggest positive from Sunday's 43-3 defeat the Atlanta Falcons suffered to the Dallas Cowboys may simply be that it only counts as one loss.
It's no different than if the Falcons had lost 23-3. Or 43-42. Or 100-0. Sunday was a loss, and the Falcons must now turn their attention to the hot New England Patriots, who will visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Thursday night.
"We're lucky it only counts as one [loss]," said Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith. "We gotta turn around, and we gotta play a really good New England team that's on a roll in our home stadium on Thursday."
At least it's no different in the standings. It may be very different in the psyche of the Falcons team and players. And there's no better way to test that psyche than a short week to prepare for Bill Belichick.
Just how difficult might it be for the Falcons to quickly focus on the Patriots? Let's take a look back at history to see how NFL teams have fared following blowouts.
With the blowout loss to the Cowboys, the Falcons joined a group of 26 teams that have lost by at least 40 points since 2010. Atlanta is the third team to lose by 40+ this season.
The good news is the previous 25 teams that lost by more than 39 points didn't fare all that badly in their next game. In fact, since 2010, teams that suffered 40+ point defeats have gone 12-13 the following week.
This year, the New York Jets beat the Cincinnati Bengals, 34-31, a week after losing to the Patriots, 54-13.
Although an interesting stat, it admittedly doesn't tell the whole picture. How many of those teams played Super Bowl contenders immediately after the blowout loss? How many played at home? And most importantly, how many played on a short week?
Of the 23 teams that lost by at least 40 points from 2010-20, seven of them played playoff teams the following week. In those seven games, the team trying to bounce back from the blowout loss went 2-5.
The last time a team lost by more than 39 points and then won the following week - beating a team that would go on to make the playoffs - was in 2014 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rebounded against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, that situation was a bit unique.
Falcons fans might remember the 40+ point blowout loss the Buccaneers suffered that year came against Atlanta. That was on a Thursday night, and then Tampa Bay played Pittsburgh the following Sunday. The Buccaneers had 10 days to recover from their embarrassment rather than four.
The only other team in the last 11 years to lose by at least 40 points and then beat an eventual playoff team the following week was the New York Jets in 2013.
Heading into Week 11, the Patriots hold the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture and have won four straight.
Since 2010, more teams have actually made the playoffs after suffering 40-point losses than have beaten eventual playoff teams the following week. Three teams that fell in a game by more than 39 points went on to earn a playoff spot that season. The last team to do it was the 2018 Philadelphia Eagles.
But none of the previous 25 teams that have suffered blowout defeats since 2010 played their next game on Thursday. In fact, based on Pro Football Reference data, no team in NFL history has lost by 40 or more on Sunday and then played Thursday.
And of those three teams that made the playoffs despite having a 40+ point loss during the season, only one of them won the next week. The 2018 Eagles defeated the then 3-8 New York Giants following their embarrassment against the New Orleans Saints.
In baseball, the old cliché is that teams want to get back on the field immediately after a bad loss. In the case of the 2014 Buccaneers, a little bit of time away may have helped them.
It's hard to tell what might be best for these inconsistent Falcons.
