2020 NFL Draft: Does Justin Jefferson's Skill Set Mesh With the Jaguars Needs?
As the 2020 offseason progresses, JaguarReport is going to be taking extended looks of some NFL draft prospects who could theoretically make sense for the Jacksonville Jaguars at some point in April.
In this version, we examine LSU wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is fresh off of one of the most productive seasons any college wide receiver had in 2019. Does Jefferson make sense for the Jaguars to target in the draft's first 50 picks?
Overview
Jefferson (6-foot-1, 202-pounds) didn't make much of an impact for the Tigers' offense in his freshman year on campus in 2017, recording zero catches and one carry for four yards. But it wouldn't take long for the young wideout to carve out a name for himself in LSU lore.
In 2018, Jefferson was leaned on as the main focal point of the Tigers' passing game. The sophomore was LSU's leading receiver that season, recording 54 catches for 875 yards and six touchdowns. This was an encouraging step forward for Jefferson, but even that solid season paled in comparison to what he would accomplish as a junior.
In 2019, Jefferson played a big role in one of the best offense's in recent college football history, helping guide LSU to a National Championship win over Clemson. He let the potent LSU offense in catches with 111, while recording 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns.
At the NFL Scouting Combine, Jefferson turned in a solid workout that actually surprised quite a few people considering the fact that most pegged him as a 4.50 40-yard dash receiver on tape. Jefferson ran a 4.43 in Indianapolis and then recorded a vertical jump fo 37.5-inches, a good outing for the long and crafty receiver.
What Justin Jefferson does well
What LSU asked Jefferson to accomplish in 2019 was simple: line up in the slot on each play and use free releases and option routes to terrorize defenses at every level of the field. While LSU's other talented receivers operated on the boundaries, Jefferson was the man in the middle for LSU's passing attack.
While the amount of free releases Jefferson got each game certainly played a big part in his high-level of production, it would be a disserve to use this as a way to play down all of the positive traits he showed from the slot. For starters, he was an extremely reliable target for LSU and quarterback Joe Burrow thanks to his terrific ball skills.
He extends well for the ball when it is outside of his frame, times his extensions and jumps well enough to keep his routes in sync with the timing of the offense, and frequently made the chain-moving catches that LSU simply needed to have each week.
Whether it is catching a bullet pass on a slant or tracking a deep ball over his shoulder, Jefferson showed the ability to consistently bring the ball into his frame, which suggests he will be a reliable and consistent target at the next level as well. He isn't afraid to attack the ball in the air after tracking it deep, and he flashed the skills to use his frame to shield the ball from defenders on deep routes and when working across the middle of the field. His overall catch radius, body control, and ability to secure the pass against impending contact will make him a favorite of whoever his quarterback is at the next level.
After the catch, Jefferson isn't a burner like Henry Ruggs III nor does he have the agility to shake defenders in space like Jerry Jeudy, but he does show more than enough quickness to be a viable threat with the ball in his hands. When given a sliver of space, he can outrun angles and be a net-positive receiver after the catch, even if he won't win a track meet.
He also runs hard after the catch, not shying away from traffic and instead lowering his shoulder and continuing to move his feet. When he needs a yard, he will put his body on the line to gain it, whether that means attempting to run through a defender or reach the ball across the goal line.
As a route runner, Jefferson shows the ability to stop on a dime and sink his hips in and out of his breaks against off coverage. The free releases certainly helped him in this regard, but he showed a good understanding of the timing needed for most of the routes he was asked to run.
What Justin Jefferson needs to improve at
The biggest knock against Jefferson doesn't even necessarily fit in an area of "needs to improve". Instead, it is an area Jefferson just didn't get much of an opportunity to make an impression at outside of his sophomore season in 2018.
Jefferson was gifted with free releases over and over again thanks to his place in the slot in LSU's offense, meaning he rarely had to defeat press coverage at the line of scrimmage. Because of this, there isn't much nuance or variation to his releases, simply because there didn't need to be. You can't knock a player for performing the role asked of him, but it is fair to question how well Jefferson would be able to separate if he wasn't already given a cushion on each play.
Against physical coverage downfield, Jefferson's routes also looked labored at times. While he has shown an ability to make quick and decisive cuts in space, he hasn't been able to consistently display an ability to separate when a cornerback is in his hip pocket and challenging him at the top of the route.
Overall
As a whole, there aren't many holes in Jefferson's game. He has great hands, good enough speed and yard after the catch ability, and is willing to make the tough, physical catches over the middle of the field.
But with that said, Jefferson is still a bit of a projection to the next level. He was a slot-only in 2019, and there are enough questions surrounding him to wonder if he can play on the outside in the NFL. He has the size and physicality to do so, but he needs to show refinement in releases and routes vs. press coverage.
Jefferson doesn't project as a dominant No. 1 wide receiver, but he seems like a high-end No. 2 who can be relied upon on key third downs and in the red-zone. He won't dominate physically, but he does nearly everything well, and his hands and catch radius will make him a favorite target of any quarterback.
Taking him at No. 20 may be a bit rich considering the other options likely to be available, but he would be an ideal pick for the Jaguars at No. 42. Jacksonville is missing a consistent slot receiver who can win across the middle and serve as a safety blanket, so Jefferson would fit into the offense perfectly. Jay Gruden has done well with receivers who are similar to Jefferson in the past, so he would likely be able to do so once again if the Jaguars drafted the slot receiver.
Jefferson is a good player and it is hard to believe the notion that he won't be a productive player at the next level. Where his skills should be valued is a legitimate question, but he does enough things well to spend a top-50 pick on.
