What Are the Odds? Breaking Down the Favorites To Be Jaguars' No. 1 Pick
The day is almost here.
In a little over a week, the wait to know who the Jacksonville Jaguars will take with the No. 1 overall pick will finally be over. In 10 days, the Jaguars will officially make their pick of the entire crop of 2022 prospects, kicking off the draft with the top selection for the second year in a row.
But how do oddsmakers see the Jaguars' No. 1 pick and where things stand entering the final leg of the pre-draft process?
Michigan edge defender Aidan Hutchinson has been the long-time favorite to be the pick -- at least since Cam Robinson's franchise tag -- but has that changed as the Travon Walker smoke and rumors have picked up in recent weeks?
Or do oddsmakers think the Jaguars are still likely to invest in an offensive lineman considering last year's selection of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, questions along the offensive line and Doug Pederson's offensive background?
To get an idea for how bets are being placed and where the odds stand ahead of April 28, we take a look at FanDuel's updated odds for the No. 1 overall pick and what it could all mean.
EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan (-170)
The favorite to be the Jaguars' pick at No. 1 over the last six weeks, the odds are still working in Aidan Hutchinson's favor. While he doesn't have prototypical arm length or versatility for a No. 1 overall pass-rusher, he is a hair-on-fire pass-rusher who can immediately make an impact against the run and bolster the Jaguars' pass-rush rotation. He can immediately slot in next to Josh Allen and give the Jaguars an edge rushing duo they have missed since Yannick Ngakoue's final season with the Jaguars.
Hutchinson was a backup as a true freshman, recording 12 tackles and one tackle for loss while also being named the team's 2018 Team Rookie of the Year Award on defense. It wasn't until 2019 that Hutchinson was able to truly shine, but he did so in a big way in his first year as a starter, recording 68 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, six pass breakups, four quarterback hurries, and two forced fumbles.
Hutchinson played in just three games in 2020 due to a fractured ankle that prematurely ended his season. He recorded 15 tackles and one pass deflection in those contests before a monstrous senior season that saw him finish second in Heisman Trophy voting as he was named a consensus All-American. During the 2021 campaign, Hutchinson recorded 14 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, and three pass deflections.
EDGE Travon Walker, Georgia (+175)
The fastest riser of the draft process, Georgia's Travon Walker seemingly seems like a legitimate option for the Jaguars at No. 1 overall. Walker is a raw pass-rusher who was rarely asked by Georgia to pin his ears back and rush the passer, but he is a versatile defender in terms of where he can still line up. He is more versatile than Hutchinson and offers more upside, but his floor is significantly lower.
In 2020, Walker played in nine games and recorded 1.0 sack, 2.0 tackles for loss, one interception, and one forced fumble. Walker then had a career season in 2021, starting all 15 games as Georgia finished the year as National Champions. During Georgia's title run, Walker recorded 6.0 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss, two pass deflections, one fumble recovery, and a team-high 36 quarterback hurries.
Walker then had arguably the best combine performance of any defensive player in 2021, measuring at 6-foot-5 and 272 pounds but still running a 4.51 40-yard dash (98th percentile), a 36-inch vertical jump (80th percentile), 123-inch broad jump (87th percentile), 6.89-second three-cone (93rd percentile), and a 4.32 20-yard shuttle (76th percentile).
OL Ikem Ekwonu, NC State/OL Evan Neal, Alabama (+1600)
The draft's top two offensive linemen come in tied for third. If I was a betting man, I would say Ikem Ekwonu should have higher odds since he seems much more like a fit for the Jaguars' offensive line and Doug Pederson's vision of the offense than Neal. Still, the top two offensive players expected to be drafted are considered longshots to be the Jaguars' pick at No. 1, largely due to the team franchise-tagging Cam Robinson.
After a successful freshman season, Ekwonu split time at left tackle and left guard in 2020. He started four games at guard and six at tackle, displaying versatility that could help him become a top pick once April rolls around. Thanks to a solid sophomore season, Ekwonu was named second-team All ACC honors from the Associated Press at both guard and tackle.
Ekwonu had arguably his best season in 2021, starting another 11 games and earning unanimous All-American honors, as well as earning All-ACC placement and being named the Jacobs Blocking Award winner as the ACC's top lineman.
Neal's career got off to a quick and successful start at Alabama, starting at left guard for the Crimson Tide in 13 games as a freshman. During that time, Neal helped anchor one of the best Alabama offensive lines in recent memory, being named Freshman All-SEC in the process.
Neal was moved to right tackle as a sophomore, starting 12 games on the edge across from Alex Leatherwood. Alabama went on to win the National Championship behind one of the most productive offenses in school history, with Neal's strong playmaking a big impact.
Neal was moved a third time in 2021, going from right tackle to left tackle following Leatherwood's departure to the NFL. A consensus All-American and first-team All-SEC member following 15 starts at left tackle as a junior. finishing his career with 40 career starts spread across three positions.
EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon (+3000)
It has never seemed like Kayvon Thibodeaux has been in contention to be drafted at No. 1 overall, and this more or less backs it up. Thibodeaux could be drafted as highly as No. 2 overall but the Jaguars haven't had a top 30 visit with him or otherwise shown much public pre-draft interest like they have in the other top pass-rushers. Add in the fact that his run defense is behind Hutchinson and Walker and it seems clear he won't be the pick.
After battling an early-season ankle injury, Thibodeaux finished 2021 with seven sacks, two forced fumbles, and 12 tackles for loss while turning in several big performances. He ended the year as a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, the Chuck Bednarik Award, the Tim Hendricks Award, and the Walter Camp Player of the Year Award. Thibodeaux ended his Oregon career with 19 sacks, 33.5 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles.
QB Malik Willis, Liberty (+5000)
The Jaguars clearly aren't taking a quarterback at No. 1 overall. The team's entire offseason has been around putting a better support system around Trevor Lawrence, both on and off the field, and it isn't like this is a Josh Rosen situation. Lawrence isn't getting replaced in Jacksonville anytime soon, especially not with this year's No. 1 pick.
Instead, Malik Willis having these odds does mean a few things. For one, it shows that if the Jaguars don't take one of the five aforementioned players, the consensus opinion is it will be because they traded down. And FanDuel's odds show Willis as the top trade-up option for any team who wants to be aggressive and move to No. 1 overall.
The chances of a team trading up with the Jaguars are slim, though, considering teams can likely see how weak this draft class is and expect similar chances to land a quarterback in the middle of the first round as at the top.
