2022 NFL Draft: Ranking the Likelihoods of Jaguars Options at No. 1 Overall
The Jacksonville Jaguars are three weeks away from making one of the most important draft picks in franchise history.
No, it isn't as key as last year's No. 1 overall pick when they had to decide between a talented group of quarterbacks and landed on Clemson's Trevor Lawrence. And it likely falls just behind the Jaguars' first-ever draft selection in 1995, a No. 2 overall selection that was used to draft USC left tackle Tony Boselli.
But it comes right behind each. For only the second time in franchise history, the Jaguars will kick off a draft with the No. 1 overall pick and dictate the rest of the first round and draft in general.
So, who are the most likely picks and options at No. 1 overall? Who should be considered the favorites and who should be considered as unlikely options?
No. 1: Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson
No, Aidan Hutchinson doesn't fit general manager Trent Baalke's love affair with long-armed pass-rushers (Hutchinson's 32⅛" arms are in the 8th percentile among edge defenders all-time). But he does have the athletic testing, production and film to warrant the top selection in a weak class. Add in the fact that he has widely been called a culture-changer and someone who will be an elite leader from day one and I think Hutchinson is the Jaguars' most likely pick at No. 1.
Edge rusher is the clear top need on the Jaguars' roster, even if it is clearly not alone in terms of dire needs. The Jaguars need offensive line help, but they franchise-tagged Cam Robinson for the second year in a row and have said they want to extent their veteran left tackle. Add in Walker Little, last year's No. 45 pick, at right tackle and there is enough reason to believe the Jaguars are looking at edge rusher at No. 1.
Hutchinson was a backup as a true freshman, recording 12 tackles and one tackle for loss while also being named the team's 2018 Team Rookie of the Year Award on defense. It wasn't until 2019 that Hutchinson was able to truly shine, but he did so in a big way in his first year as a starter, recording 68 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, six pass breakups, four quarterback hurries, and two forced fumbles.
Hutchinson played in just three games in 2020 due to a fractured ankle that prematurely ended his season. He recorded 15 tackles and one pass deflection in those contests before a monstrous senior season that saw him finish second in Heisman Trophy voting as he was named a consensus All-American. During the 2021 campaign, Hutchinson recorded 14 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, and three pass deflections.
No. 2: Georgia EDGE Travon Walker
Travon Walker isn't close to being a finished product and there is genuine concern about his pass-rush prowess and whether his ability to impact the passer can truly match his otherworldly athleticism. Still, Walker is the highest-ceiling pass-rusher along with Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux and would give the Jaguars a moldable piece of clay who can line up inside, outside and really any alignment along the defensive line.
In 2020, Walker played in nine games and recorded 1.0 sack, 2.0 tackles for loss, one interception, and one forced fumble. Walker then had a career season in 2021, starting all 15 games as Georgia finished the year as National Champions. During Georgia's title run, Walker recorded 6.0 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss, two pass deflections, one fumble recovery, and a team-high 36 quarterback hurries.
Walker then had arguably the best combine performance of any defensive player in 2021, measuring at 6-foot-5 and 272 pounds but still running a 4.51 40-yard dash (98th percentile), a 36-inch vertical jump (80th percentile), 123-inch broad jump (87th percentile), 6.89-second three-cone (93rd percentile), and a 4.32 20-yard shuttle (76th percentile).
No. 3: NC State OL Ikem Ekwonu
I think if the Jaguars were to draft an offensive lineman at No. 1 overall, this is who they would pick. Ikem Ekwonu has the movement skills and elite run blocking to immediately change the complexion of any team's zone-based running game and he would be an ideal fit on Doug Pederson's offensive line. He would slot into left guard as a rookie in this scenario too, a better spot for him than right tackle and potentially even left tackle.
Still, the Jaguars would be taking a 2022 guard at No. 1 in this scenario. Considering they could get a starting guard as late as the third-round, that seems like overkill, even if Ekwonu would be moved to left tackle in the event Cam Robinson doesn't get an extended contract.
After a successful freshman season, Ekwonu split time at left tackle and left guard in 2020. He started four games at guard and six at tackle, displaying versatility that could help him become a top pick once April rolls around. Thanks to a solid sophomore season, Ekwonu was named second-team All ACC honors from the Associated Press at both guard and tackle.
Ekwonu had arguably his best season in 2021, starting another 11 games and earning unanimous All-American honors, as well as earning All-ACC placement and being named the Jacobs Blocking Award winner as the ACC's top lineman. Thanks to a third successful season, Ekwonu was able to declare for the draft with his name already near the top of many rankings.
No. 4: Alabama OL Evan Neal
While Evan Neal is someone I have a higher grade on than Ikem Ekwonu, I do not think the Jaguars would feel the same way. Neal is a terrific athlete and a truly dominant left tackle at the college level who has played three different positions at high levels. Still, he has balance issues and can be lumbering in his lateral movements at times, which makes me think the Jaguars would go with the more mobile lineman in Ekwonu. Compared to the other options in the draft, though, I think it is clear Neal makes more sense.
Taking Neal would give the Jaguars the same situation that an Ekwonu pick would give them, though Neal seems better suited at tackle than guard in the NFL. Still, the Jaguars would be taking a player at No. 1 to eventually replace the player they just guaranteed $16 million to earlier this offseason.
Neal's career got off to a quick and successful start at Alabama, starting at left guard for the Crimson Tide in 13 games as a freshman. During that time, Neal helped anchor one of the best Alabama offensive lines in recent memory, being named Freshman All-SEC in the process.
Neal was moved to right tackle as a sophomore, starting 12 games on the edge across from Alex Leatherwood. Alabama went on to win the National Championship behind one of the most productive offenses in school history, with Neal's strong play making a big impact.
Neal was moved a third time in 2021, going from right tackle to left tackle following Leatherwood's departure to the NFL. A consensus All-American and first-team All-SEC member following 15 starts at left tackle as a junior. finishing his career with 40 career starts spread across three positions.
No. 5: Trade down
While the Jaguars could land any of the four aforementioned prospects, they could also look to move down the board and get more picks. This seems unlikely, but more likely than the Jaguars taking any prospect who isn't Hutchinson, Walker, Neal, or Ekwonu. The No. 1 pick simply isn't a pick that is in very much demand this year due to the weakness of the class and lack of high-level quarterbacks.
With that said, could the Jaguars move down to No. 2 and let the Detroit Lions take Hutchinson? Here is what The Athletic's Dane Brugler had to say a few weeks ago.
"And there is even chatter out there, you know, just talking with people around the league about the Lions, looking to what it would cost to move up to No. 1 to get Hutchinson," Brugler said.
No. 6: Miss. State OL Charles Cross
The best pure pass-protector of the top offensive tackle prospects, Charles Cross is a bonafide top-10 pick who shouldn't fall past the Carolina Panthers at No. 6 unless they take a quarterback and he is a better run-blocker than he gets credit for. Still, it doesn't seem likely the Jaguars would target him over Neal and Ekwonu since they have a lot more versatility to their game.
No. 7: Oregon EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux
No. 8: LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr.,
No. 9: Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton
Three players I do not think are in the cards for the No. 1 pick under any circumstance, even if they have the talent to justify it in this class. Baalke simply isn't the type of general manager who would take a non-trench player this highly, while Thibodeaux doesn't have the run defense or versatility to match the Jaguars' defensive needs, nor does he seem like a Baalke type of player.
