Early 2021 NFL Mock Draft: Todd McShay Projects Offense for Jaguars' Day 1 Picks
Let us preface this with a point: It is entirely too early to put too much stock into mock drafts. This statement will be just as true in January as it is today.
But while that fact remains, mock drafts are still a worthwhile exercise to examine because they can help paint a picture of possible scenarios that could play out in future drafts.
For the second year in a row, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be a major player in the draft's first round. Thanks to the trade that sent All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams, the Jaguars own two first-round picks in 2021, giving them plenty of flexibility in the first round.
Last year's draft saw the Jaguars nab two athletic defenders with their first-round picks: Florida cornerback CJ Henderson with the No. 9 overall pick and LSU defensive end/outside linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson with the No. 20 overall pick.
But what could be the team's needs once next year's draft rolls around? To determine how other analysts view the Jaguars' future needs, we continue to take a look at recent mock drafts. This time, the focus is on a early 2021 mock from ESPN's Todd McShay, who had the Jaguars selecting No. 1 and No. 17 overall.
So, which picks did McShay tab for the Jaguars and could they make sense a year from now? We examine below.
No. 1: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence
This one is obvious. Just as Tua Tagovailoa was perennially mocked to the Miami Dolphins in 2019, Trevor Lawrence will see his name attached to the Jaguars until a different team becomes the favorite to pick No. 1 overall. Some early mocks have the Jaguars going with Ohio State's Justin Fields over Lawrence, but Lawrence is the clear popular pick thus far.
"Lawrence is a once-in-a-decade type of quarterback prospect who currently has our highest Scouts Inc. grade on a QB since Andrew Luck in 2012 (99). Jacksonville dealt Nick Foles in the offseason, leaving it with just Gardner Minshew II and Mike Glennon, and Lawrence would step right in for the Jaguars as an immediate game-breaking starter. With a big arm, great mobility for his 6-foot-6 frame, excellent poise under pressure and off-the-charts intangibles, it wouldn't be long before he was among the game's best," McShay wrote.
Lawrence has been commonly referred to as the next "can't-miss" quarterback prospect since his wildly successful true freshman season. Lawrence completed 65.2% of his passes and threw for 3,280 passing yards with 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions on the season, winning the National Freshman of the Year and ACC Rookie of the Year awards.
That same year, Lawrence led Clemson to an undefeated season in which they defeated Notre Dame 30-3 in the College Football Playoffs semifinals. Shortly thereafter, Lawrence sparked a massive victory over Alabama in the National Championship, with Clemson defeating Nick Saban's squad 44-16.
Lawrence once again found himself in the national championship last season, though Clemson was bested by LSU in a 42-25 bout. Still, Lawrence finished 2019 with a 65.8% completion rate and 3,665 passing yards for 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Does Lawrence make sense for the Jaguars a year from now? Well, if Jacksonville is picking No. 1 overall then it means the 2020 season was an unmitigated disaster, likely to the likes the franchise has never seen. The Jaguars have never had the worst record in the NFL since their inaugural season in 1995, and earning the top pick in 2020 would mean a quarterback change would likely be in the cards.
Gardner Minshew II did everything, and more, to deserve being Jacksonville's starter in 2020. Now, he will need to perform good enough to prevent the Jaguars from being able to even consider drafting Lawrence. If the Jaguars pick No. 1 next year, then a quarterback should be the pick. If not, then it very well could still be Minshew's team.
No. 17: Ohio State WR Chris Olave
This is a new one. The Jaguars have invested a lot of draft capital into their wide receiver group over the last several drafts, with two of their last three second-round picks each being receivers (DJ Chark in 2018, Laviska Shenault in 2020). Could the Jaguars look to add another high-level draft investment into the position in 2021, though? McShay thinks so.
"The Jaguars focused on defense with both first-round picks this past April (CJ Henderson and K'Lavon Chaisson). Then they landed Lawrence as their quarterback here. So it makes perfect sense to get another weapon for the offense with Jacksonville's second Day 1 selection. If Etienne is available, he could be the answer at running back, with Leonard Fournette potentially heading out of Duval County," McShay wrote.
"But I think it makes more sense to capitalize on the pool of talented pass-catchers in this range, giving Lawrence another target opposite DJ Chark Jr., especially with Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley and Keelan Cole all playing the final years of their contracts."
Firstly, it needs to be pointed out how successful Ohio State wide receivers have been at the next level in recent years. Much like drafting defensive backs from LSU, it seems like drafting Ohio State wide receivers nets teams solid players more often than not. Now this shouldn't be a driving reason for why the Jaguars should potentially consider drafting Olave, but it is worth remembering.
Olave broke out for Ohio State's offense as a sophomore, catching 48 receptions for 840 yards (17.5 yards per catch average) and 12 touchdowns. He was second in the conference in receiving touchdowns and fifth in overall conferences, making it clear how big of an impact he made while catching passes from Fields.
Would it be worth it for the Jaguars to take a first-round receiver with DJ Chark having a contract extension on the horizon and Laviska Shenault already in the receiver room? It may be overkill, but it is also hard to see all three of Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley returning in 2021. The receiver room will likely be reshaped, and a first-round pick to help round out the group wouldn't be the most far-fetched move.
For McShay's entire first-round mock draft, click here.
