Can the Jaguars Afford To Roll the Dice on Travon Walker at No. 1?
The sure double vs. the potential home run. The safe bet vs. the risky roll of the dice.
These are the principles the Jacksonville Jaguars will have to debate before they kick off the 2022 NFL Draft with the No. 1 overall pick on April 28.
With fewer than two weeks until the Jaguars make one of the important picks in franchise history, the consensus opinion in the media is the Jaguars are likely down to two prospects at No. 1.
Will they go with the high-floor Heisman Trophy candidate in Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson, who seems destined to be at least a solid pro at the next level?
Or will they go with Georgia's Travon Walker, one of the best pure athletes to enter the draft in recent memory but with just 9.5 career sacks and limited pass-rushing exposure to his name?
The Jaguars have other options, of course, such as Alabama's Evan Neal and North Carolina State's Ikem Ekwonu, but it certainly appears they are on a trajectory to decide between Hutchinson and Walker.
At this point in the pre-draft process where even the most complete prospects are nitpicked, it is easy to make a case for both Hutchinson and Walker. It is also just as easy to make a case against both, with critics panning Walker's production and overall rawness, as well as Hutchinson's lack of prototypical length and potential ceiling questions.
Still, even with the number of fair questions against both, it has become a joined belief by most that Hutchinson represents a safe pick, while Walker represents a risky bet on potential.
Related: Anonymous Coach: ‘Worst Kept Secret’ Doug Pederson Wants Offensive Player at No. 1
If these evaluations are accurate -- and that is a big "if" considering the uncertainty of the NFL Draft -- can the Jaguars themselves afford to take Walker? Can a franchise that is known more for a long record of losing seasons and first-round busts afford to take a projected long-shot over a player who few think will fail?
"This take from an AFC college scouting director sums up where Jags GM Trent Baalke is right now: 'Everyone knows he wants to trade it, and that tells me he’s not in love with any of them'," SI.com's Albert Breer wrote earlier this week.
"Multiple rival executives raised to me that Baalke is also sensitive to a perception problem he and his team have right now, and that he, and the team, will get roasted if they do anything other than take Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or get a king’s ransom for the pick."
It is tough to say whether the Jaguars and Baalke truly have an issue with how the franchise and its moves are perceived. It is a long shot to imagine the Jaguars would operate based on such motives, especially after Baalke has overseen some unpopular moves from a general NFL perspective over the last two years (Chris Doyle hire, Tim Tebow signing, Travis Etienne selection, Christian Kirk contract, and tagging Cam Robinson twice).
If the Jaguars and Baalke were worried about what others throughout the league, media or fan base thought about them and certain moves, it is hard to imagine they would have made more than a few of the aforementioned moves.
Still, the draft can often be seen as a way for teams and executives to do more than build for the future of their respective franchises. It can be seen as a way to bolster job security moving into the future.
"If it’s an edge rusher, and it’s between Hutchinson and Georgia’s freakish draft riser, Travon Walker, that’s interesting too," Breer wrote.
'“It’s the home run vs. the double,” said another exec. “No one’s missing on Hutch. With Walker, is he an outside linebacker? Is he a five-technique? His ceiling’s high, if you look at his movement, his get-off, his play speed. He’s not as polished as Hutch. There might be more there, but you haven’t seen it, so it’s hit or miss.'"
If the Jaguars took Walker and he ends up not living up to the expectations of the No. 1 pick, there would certainly be some immense blowback on Baalke and the Jaguars. If they took Hutchinson and he too failed to live up to that standard, though, there would be less critics waiting to say "I told you so". It would be seen as missing along with everyone else.
Does that mean the Jaguars can afford to take Walker considering where things stand after four wins over the last two seasons and a tumultuous past two years?
If the Jaguars believe Walker is the better player, they should take him. It shouldn't matter who sees it as a reach.
But they better be right, because all eyes are on them.
