Mock Draft Roundup: Jaguars Land Blue-Chip Pass-Rusher at No. 2
'Tis the season for mock drafts, a yearly tradition in which media attempt to project how the second-biggest day on the NFL calendar plays out.
As we inch closer and closer to the 2022 NFL Draft, we will be tracking how other national media outlets are projecting the Jacksonville Jaguars to attack the draft and build around 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.
The Jaguars still have a long way to go before they have to make critical decisions for the 2022 season -- including four more games on the 2021 schedule -- but it is never too early to take a peek ahead.
If the 2022 NFL Draft were to be held today, the Jaguars would hold the No. 2 overall pick -- selecting behind only the Detroit Lions.
The current order of the 2022 NFL Draft, via Tankathon.
So, what is a potential scenario for the Jaguars at pick No. 2? This week, we take a look at how Pro Football Focus and their most recent first-round mock draft tackled that question, and weigh in with our thoughts on the selection.
In this mock, authored by Austin Gayle, the Jaguars are able to land a potentially franchise-changing pass-rusher -- but is it the right pick?
No. 2 overall: DE/OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
Just like last week when PFF went the surprising route and slotted Michigan edge defender Aidan Hutchinson to the Detroit Lions at No. 1 overall, Gayle and PFF continued the theme this week. Instead of the Jaguars having a chance to draft the Heisman Trophy finalist, the Jaguars instead draft the preseason consensus No. 1 pick for the second year in a row.
"Hutchinson and Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux should go No. 1 and No. 2 overall, regardless of who is selected over the other," Gayle wrote.
"The 6-foot-5, 260-pound Thibodeaux earned a 91.3 PFF pass-rushing grade that ranked fourth among all Power Five edge defenders in 2021, behind Hutchinson (93.6), South Carolina’s Kingsley Enagbare (92.5) and Oklahoma’s Nik Bonitto (92.5). Thibodeaux is a premier player and a premium position — throw need out the window if he’s available at No. 2 overall."
The idea that the Jaguars should be down on Thibodeaux because he didn't have the 2021 season that Hutchinson had doesn't make much sense, but it certainly appears that Hutchinson has all of the momentum working in his favor. He had a giant game against Ohio State on a big stage and will play in at least one playoff game against Georgia to further cement himself as the leading candidate for the draft's top pick.
Thibodeaux still had a terrific final season in his own right, however, and the former top recruit shouldn't be dinged for the failures of Oregon's entire team down the stretch of this past season. Thibodeaux was a playmaker for Oregon's defense from his first game as a freshman and that kind of talent doesn't fall far in the draft.
Thibodeaux earned Pac-12 Freshman of the Year honors in 2019 and was a first-team All-Pac-12 selection in 2020. He finished his career at Oregon with 82 solo tackles, 19 sacks, 35.5 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles.
Our view
The Jaguars have a big need for a player like Thibodeaux. They have one talented starting edge rusher in Josh Allen but even Allen's game has slowed up quite a bit over the last month. Since the Colts' game, Allen has zero sacks, zero quarterback hits, and one tackle for loss -- with the star pass-rusher recording just one pressure against the Titans, per TruMedia.
Allen is clearly talented, but the Jaguars' pass-rush simply needs more. Dawuane Smoot has had a solid season and should be in the plans again in 2022 but the Jaguars could still use a top pick to upgrade a piece of the defense that clearly doesn't yet have the horses the Jaguars need for their high-powered scheme to succeed. While Allen and Smoot have the ability to win on the edge, the Jaguars could unlock the defense's potential by replacing Jihad Ward, Lerentee McCray, and K'Lavon Chaissio with a talent like Thibodeaux.
The only issue with taking Thibodeaux at this pick would be the fact that it doesn't immediately help Trevor Lawrence and the worst offense in franchiser history. The Jaguars need to make upgrades to their offensive line, tight end room, wide receiver unit, and coaching staff, but taking a pass-rusher at No. 2 doesn't do any of those things. What it does do is provide proper value and bolster an already-improving unit, but it is fair to wonder about the minimal impact on Lawrence.
With this in mind, the only pick the Jaguars could make at No. 2 that would help Lawrence without sacrificing value would be selecting Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal.
Neal has experience at both left and right tackle and is the best offensive player in the entire draft and would provide an immediate upgrade at right tackle over Jawaan Taylor. The Jaguars could also keep him at left tackle and try to develop Walker Little at right tackle, but a new starter on the right side is badly needed.
Still, the Jaguars don't need to spend the No. 2 overall pick on an offensive tackle to protect Lawrence. A competent franchise and scouting staff could find a new right tackle with one of their other 11 picks or in free agency. Adding Neal would help Lawrence and the offense, but Thibodeaux would be the more impactful pick and ultimately the proper decision.
