Mock Draft Roundup: Odds-Based Mock Provides Unique Scenario for Jaguars
'Tis the season for mock drafts, a yearly tradition in which media attempt to project how the second-biggest day on the NFL calendar plays out.
As we inch closer and closer to the 2020 NFL Draft on Apr. 23, we will be tracking how other national media outlets are projecting the Jacksonville Jaguars to attack the draft. With two first-round picks for the first time since 1998, the Jaguars are one of the most interesting teams to monitor throughout this offseason, and it is worth examining how different people view the team's needs and how to address them.
Some mock drafts are just ... different. Unique in their formulation and composition, mock drafts vary depending on the creator. They can be what the author projects will happen, what they think should happen, or in this case, what the odds say will happen.
Such is the case with the mock draft we are examining in this edition. In a unique mock draft released this week by Sports Betting Dime, the site has taken all major sportsbooks and gathered their odds on the over/unders of when a player will be drafted, how many players at a position are added, etc., and have compiled this data to formulate a first-round mock draft, which includes a number of trades.
What do the betting odds say about how the Jaguars' first-round will play out? In this instance, this mock has the Jaguars trading down twice before they even pick, with the odds projecting them to need a cornerback while also being a prime candidate for teams to trade with since the roster is so flawed.
No. 9: Jaguars trade pick to Tampa Bay Buccaneers for No. 14 pick and other undescribed compensation. Tampa selects Louisville OT Mekhi Becton.
"Louisville’s Mekhi Becton has the second-best odds to be the first offensive lineman selected in the draft, only behind Tristan Wirfs. Tampa Bay made it clear they were all-in on 2020 when they signed Tom Brady, and they simply cannot enter the season with Joe Haeg starting at RT," Sports Betting Dime wrote. "Once Wirfs comes off the board, which is favored to happen in the first eight picks, there are too many OL-needy teams picking ahead of the Bucs – Jacksonville, Cleveland, and New York (Jets) – to assume Becton, Jedrick Wills Jr, or Anthony Thomas will be there for them at 14. And with the Jaguars needing to fill a ton of holes on their roster, they’re the perfect trading partner for Tampa Bay. "
It wouldn't be too shocking if the Jaguars wanted to move down from No. 9 because the reality of the situation is they are in a bad draft slot considering their needs and the players likely to be available. The ideal picks would be Jeff Okudah, Isaiah Simmons, or Tristan Wirfs, but it is unlikely either of these three picks will fall to No. 9. In this mock, Okudah went No. 3, Simmons went No. 4, and Wirfs went No. 8.
This would leave the Jaguars with the option of taking a raw player like Javon Kinlaw, a high-ceiling offensive tackle like Becton, or a wide receiver such as Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb. Each of these makes sense from a fit and needs standpoint, but the value of each is poor considering the risks with Kinlaw and Becton and the depth of the wide receiver class.
With the No. 14 pick, the odds projected the Jaguars to once again trade down. This time, the Jaguars trade with the Miami Dolphins and move to No. 18 for undescribed compensation.
But with the No. 18 pick, the Jaguars finally select a player, giving them two picks in three selections.
No: 18: LSU CB Kristian Fulton
Fulton doesn't meet the Jaguars' physical thresholds in comparison to past cornerbacks the team has drafted due to his arm length, which is shorter than 31-inches, and his vertical jump, which was below 36-inches. The Jaguars could, of course, buck their draft trends that date back to 2013 and take the gifted cover corner because of their dire need for an outside cornerback.
Jacksonville currently projects to start third-year cornerback Tre Herndon on the outside and D.J. Hayden in the slot, but the second outside position is completely up in the air. There was some thought that Darqueze Dennard could have filled this role, but the Jaguars' deal with the veteran cornerback fell apart before he could sign a contract, and he remains unsigned.
In 2019, Fulton started 14 games and was given a second-team All-SEC honor as he established himself as half of one of the best cornerback duos in the nation along with Derek Stingley Jr. As a senior, Fulton recorded 38 tackles, one interception, one tackle for loss, and 14 pass deflections. His 14 pass deflections were good for third in the SEC and eighth in the nation.
Fulton is a solid man coverage cornerback who also has good instincts and quickness in zone coverage, so he is a good schematic fit for the Jaguars' cover 3 scheme, even if he doesn't meet every physical benchmark.
No. 20: Penn State DE Yetur Gross-Matos
With Yannick Ngakoue making it clearer each day that he doesn't intend to play for the Jaguars again, Jacksonville needs to make edge rusher a priority in this year's draft. That could realistically mean the Jaguars will target a defensive end in the first round, and if they are seeking a pure pass-rusher off of the edge, then Gross-Matos makes a lot of sense.
Gross-Matos has the size (6-foot-5, 266-pounds) to play 4-3 defensive end and collected 17 sacks over the last two seasons. For a player who would be asked to team up with Josh Allen on the edge but serve primarily as a rotational player, Gross-Matos makes a lot of sense.
A.J. Epenesa may make more sense from a needs standpoint, however, and he was still on the board when the Jaguars picked here. Epenesa could start right away at the 'big end' position while offering pass-rush potential off of the edge and along the interior for the Jaguars.
Does this mock project a solid draft haul for the Jaguars? Let us know in the comments below!
