Which Teams Could Draft Derrick Brown Before the Jaguars Are on the Clock?
In a few short days, the Jacksonville Jaguars will join the rest of the league as they make the pivotal decision of who will be their next top draft selection. With this year's draft having much more of a sense of unpredictability surrounding it due to the circumstances looming over it, it is genuinely anyone's guess what might happen.
As it stands today, however, it continues to feel like a safe bet that the Jaguars covet Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown at No. 9 overall. The Jaguars had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last year, allowing 23 rushing touchdowns and 5.1 yards allowed per rush, and head coach Doug Marrone has made it clear he is still seeking run-stoppers on defense.
Then on Thursday, general manager Dave Caldwell indicated that he doesn't perceive this year's defensive tackle group as a deep position, meaning he could want to elect to take one of the top players at the position instead of waiting for one later in the draft. This is a stark contrast from an offensive line class in which Caldwell said is deep enough that teams can find starters throughout the draft.
"Defensively, it is a little bit different. I think there is a dramatic fall-off from your top guys, especially interior defensive line, and not as much depth throughout the draft," Caldwell said Thursday.
So, if the Jaguars do pinpoint Brown, who is an elite run defender but a middling athlete and pass-rusher, then what are the odds he actually falls to No. 9?
In an effort to determine this likelihood, we take a look at the eight teams who pick before the Jaguars and takes a swing at guessing if they make sense to select Brown or not.
No. 1: Cincinnati Bengals
There is zero chance the Bengals take Derrick Brown No. 1 overall. Not only would it be ludicrous to select a nose tackle with the top pick in the draft, but the Bengals are likely already locked into selecting LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the first pick. This pick won't be Brown.
No. 2: Washington Redkins
With Chase Young falling to No. 2 due to Burrow almost 100% a lock to go No. 1, it would be nothing less than a complete shocker to see Washington pick Brown over the elite defensive end prospect. Plus, Washington already has a solid nose tackle in 2018 first-round pick Daron Payne. Brown won't be the pick here, either.
No. 3: Detroit Lions
While mocking Brown to the Lions was a common pick early in the offseason, it seems much less likely today that the Lions would take Brown with the No. 3 pick. In free agency, they signed defensive tackle Nick Williams to a two-year, $10 million deal and defensive tackle Danny Shelton to a two-year, $8 million deal. Neither is an elite player, and the rest of the Lions defensive tackle is shoddy, but the Lions hand shouldn't be forced at No. 3. While Brown could have a small chance to be the pick here, it does seem unlikely the Lions would draft him over Jeff Okudah, but it isn't impossible.
No. 4: New York Giants
Nobody loves run-stuffing defensive tackles more than Dave Gettleman. The Giants are already stacked when it comes to run-oriented interior lineman due to the presence of Leonard Williams, B.J. Hill, Dalvin Tomlison, and Dexter Lawrence, who as the No. 17 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Gettleman taking Brown here would make little to zero sense, but if any general manager is the type who would double down at a position like nose tackle with the No. 4 pick, it is Gettleman. It is unlikely Brown is the pick here but once again, it is not entirely impossible.
No. 5: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins won't be taking Brown, and it isn't because they took Christian Wilkins with the No. 13 overall pick last year. The Dolphins have an abundance of draft picks to fill out their defensive tackle depth, but it is widely expected for them to use their top picks on either quarterback or offensive tackle. Miami could take either Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, or the offensive tackle of their choice here, but Brown would make almost no sense.
No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers could actually be a sleeper team to pick Brown, a pick that has rarely been mocked to them. Most expect for the Chargers to draft either Herbert or Tagovailoa, whether at No. 6 or in a trade up, but if they want to entrust Tyrod Taylor with the starting job for whatever reason, they could go with offensive line or Brown. The Chargers took a defensive tackle last year in Jerry Tillery, but he is more of a three-technique. When you look at the Chargers' defensive tackle depth aside from Tillery, it is a pretty bare group. Brown makes sense in terms of need, though it would be surprising to see the Chargers take him instead of a quarterback or offensive tackle.
No. 7: Carolina Panthers
This is about the range that Brown should be expecting to start to hear his name called. The Panthers have a ton of needs, whether it is linebacker, cornerback, or offensive line, but they could find themselves in a tricky situation if both Okudah and Isaiah Simmons are off the board when they pick. The Panthers are the only team in the NFL who had a worse run defense than the Jaguars last season, allowing a league-high 31 touchdowns and 5.2 yards per carry.
To make matters worse, the Panthers lost Vernon Butler, Dontari Poe, and Gerald McCoy to free agency this offseason. Currently, the Panthers only even have two defensive tackles on their entire roster. They will draft one at some point, and it would make a lot of sense if they opted to do so with Brown at No. 7 overall.
No. 8: Arizona Cardinals
While many have pegged the Cardinals as a prime candidate to draft an offensive tackle, defensive tackle makes sense as well. Currently, the only players on the Cardinals' roster with defensive tackle experience are Jordan Phillips, Miles Brown, Trevon Coley, and Corey Peters. This is far from a star-studded group, and no other position makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals at this pick since they are no longer in the receiver market due to the DeAndre Hopkins trade. The Cardinals could, and likely will, prioritize right tackle over a nose tackle, but Brown seems like a legitimate option for them.
As of now, it is hard seeing Brown not make it to the Jaguars' pick unless the Panthers or Cardinals draft him. The Lions, Giants, and Chargers all could as well, but it seems extremely unlikely any of these three teams would do so. This leaves just Carolina and Arizona, the two teams who pick right before the Jaguars do.
If the Jaguars covet Brown, they will likely be able to relax until the Panthers are on the clock. If Simmons isn't there for Carolina, it seems like a safe bet they would pull the trigger on Brown. If they don't, then the Jaguars will have a good shot to land the burly run-stuffer.
