5 Predictions for Jaguars Vs. Chargers: Josh Allen Has a Big Performance
With the Los Angeles Chargers (1-4) standing in the way of the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) snapping a five-game losing streak, there is a lot on the line when the two sides meet in Week 7. For the Jaguars especially, a sixth consecutive loss heading into the bye week would be destructive for their hopes over the second half of the season.
But how could Sunday play out? Who wins the duel of young quarterbacks between Gardner Minshew II and Justin Herbert? Which defensive ends produce?
To give an idea of how we think the game will unfold, we break down our five biggest predictions here. We have hit on some of these this season, while we have also missed big (Stephen Hauschka making 100% of his kicks was a regretful prediction in hindsight).
With that in mind, here are our five predictions for Jaguars vs. Chargers.
Josh Allen collects at least 1.5 sacks
While Josh Allen has still been the Jaguars' best defensive lineman this season, he has still been far from the tour de force that many projected he would be in his second year. Following a rookie season with 10.5 sacks and a Pro Bowl appearance, maybe it is fair to see Allen's numbers dip just a bit as he gets less help around him. With that said, we think this is the week that Allen is able to start building momentum for the second half of the season.
We largely think Allen gets at least 1.5 sacks on Sunday because of the matchup he will draw, at least when he rushes against the right side of the Chargers' line. With Bryan Bulaga doubtful to play, the Chargers are set to start second-year offensive tackle Trey Pipkins at right tackle. Considering Pipkins is currently Pro Football Focus's lowest-rated offensive tackle (76th of 76), and has allowed 14 pressures and two sacks over the last three games alone, this is a matchup Allen should have the edge in. If he doesn't, then it may be a long rest of the season.
James O'Shaughnessy catches a touchdown
While James O'Shaughnessy has played just 12 fewer snaps than Tyler Eifert this season, he could see his role expand a great deal with Eifert out with a neck injury in Week 7. Eifert has eight more targets on the season than O'Shaughnessy does, but the biggest difference between the two has been the usage of the tight ends in the red zone. With Eifert not on the field in Los Angeles, we think that changes this week.
A year after O'Shaughnessy and Minshew developed a great red zone connection, O'Shaughnessy has fallen by the wayside in terms of targets. According to Pro Football Reference, O'Shaughnessy has not seen a target within the opponent's 20-yard line this season. Meanwhile, Eifert is second on the team with six such targets, trailing only DJ Chark. With Eifert not in the lineup this weekend, we think O'Shaughnessy gets a play drawn up for him for a score.
Josh Lambo makes 100% of his kicks
We were horribly wrong when we predicted that Stephen Hauschka would make all of his kicks against Houston, but we think the second time is the charm in this scenario. After the Jaguars went through four different kickers in the four games Lambo missed due to a hip injury, the veteran kicker who has made 94.9% of his field goals with the Jaguars will be making his long-awaited return to the field.
With Lambo facing off against his former team, and with the Jaguars desperately needing a spark in the kicking game, we think Lambo is able to breathe some life into Jacksonville's special teams. The Jaguars have missed an extra point or field goal attempt in every game but Week 1 this year, but we think Lambo brings stability due to his record of consistency. He is a career 88.75% kicker but he has one of the best kicking percentages of all kickers since 2017, and we don't expect that to change just because of a month sidelined.
James Robinson gets 20 carries for the first time
While the Jaguars have continued to stress that they want to make James Robinson a focal point of the offense, it simply hasn't happened yet. Robinson has yet to crack 20 carries in a game, 20 touches in just one of five games, and he has 25 combined carries in the last two weeks. A big reason for this is due to the Jaguars frequently falling behind by several scores early in the game, but the Jaguars have also abandoned the running game too early on a few occasions.
Does that change this week? We think so, in part because the Jaguars have seen over the last two weeks that letting Gardner Minshew attempt over 40 passes a game on a consistent basis isn't a winning strategy. We would be surprised if Robinson doesn't have a dozen carries by halftime as the Jaguars look to make things easier on Minshew and the passing game each.
Justin Herbert throws for 340 yards and two touchdowns to pick up his first win
With the Jaguars down to their third-string free safety, and without their best defender in Myles Jack, we think this is an easy game to project Justin Herbert having a big day in. Herbert is averaging 298.8 yards per game passing as it stands today, throwing for 311 yards and 330 yards in his first two starts, but we think he reaches over 340 against a poor Jaguars secondary, along with two touchdowns.
The Jaguars are ranked last in defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders, having allowed over 340 passing yards in two games and 15 passing scores to start the season. With Herbert having his receiving group relatively healthy, we think he overcomes an impactful Josh Allen and is able to earn his first career win against the struggling and slumping Jaguars.
