5 Predictions For Jaguars Vs. Texans
One of the most important games of the Jacksonville Jaguars 2020 season will take place in Houston on Sunday.
The 1-3 Jaguars can either beat a winless Houston Texans team who just fired their head coach ... or they could lose their third straight game to a team that was winless entering the game.
To give a feel for how we see the game unfolding, here are our five key predictions to Jaguars vs. Texans.
James Robinson gets 28 carries
If there is any way for the Jaguars to win this game, it is to simply play keep away from Houston and Deshaun Watson. The Jaguars need to limit Houston's opportunities with the ball due to their own flimsy defense, and the best way to do that is to punish the Texans with running back James Robinson for all four quarters. Robinson is currently averaging just 15 carries a game, with a season-high of 17 coming in Week 4. A big reason for this is the fact that the Jaguars are frequently trailing by multiple possessions, but even when the game is close the Jaguars have opted to not lean on the run. This weekend, the Jaguars need to reverse that. They're playing a Texans team that is allowing nearly five yards a carry and their best chance to win is to take advantage of the situation by utilizing Robinson.
The Jaguars defense records zero sacks
The Jaguars were struggling to bring the quarterback down even with Josh Allen and a healthy secondary. Now, they'll have to face one of the most evasive quarterbacks in the league without their best pass-rusher and without much in the terms of stingy coverage. Allen leads the team in sacks (2) and pressures (13 per Pro Football Focus) while no other player on the team has more than one sack or more than five pressures. First-round pick K'Lavon Chaisson has one sack and just two pressures on the year, so any expectations for him while filling in for the injured Allen should be low.
Jaguars' offense converts at least 70% of third downs
This just feels like a game in which Jay Gruden and the Jaguars offensive playmakers get into a groove. They have more weapons than Houston's mediocre defense can keep up with, especially considering both Robinson and the receiving group are beginning to hit their strides. The Texans are No. 26 in completion % allowed (71.05%) and are allowing over 10 yards per pass attempt. Add in the fact that they are allowing conversions on 43.86% of opponent's third downs, and all of the ingredients are there for the Jaguars offense to improve on the money down.
Stephen Hauschka makes 100% of his kicks
The Jaguars haven't had a kicker make 100% of his kicks in a game since Josh Lambo did it in Week 1 against the Colts. That has to change eventually, right? Houston is allowing 2.2 field goals per game (27th in NFL), and the Jaguars have their second-most experienced kicker of the five they've rostered this year set to kick on Sunday with Stephen Hauschka. We think Hauschka finally provides some stability to the Jaguars' kicking game after struggles from Brandon Wright and Aldrick Rosas, almost solely because the Jaguars are due.
The Jaguars serve as Houston's "get right" game due to inability to stop Deshaun Watson
Ultimately, this is a game the Jaguars should win. The Texans are 0-4, have just fired their head coach, struggle to run the ball and defend the run, and struggle to keep Watson upright. With that said, we think the Texans win the game because there is simply no reasonable or logical path to suggest they can slow down Watson. Watson could always make some careless mistakes, but he's played great vs. much, much better Jaguars defenses in the past. We think the Jaguars keep it close in a high-scoring game, but ultimately Watson fuels the Texans to a win.
