Are Expectations Working in Travon Walker's Favor as a Rookie?
Polling most draft analysts before this April's NFL Draft, answers rarely varied when it came to the draft's top pass-rushers.
Aidan Hutchinson? High floor, lower ceiling, a lock to produce right away.
Travon Walker? Lower floor, high ceiling, a question to produce immediate impact but the chance to have the biggest impact five years down the road.
Kayvon Thibodeaux? Somewhere in the middle, providing a blend of pass-rush and run defense that should be able to give him a chance to hit the ground running as a rookie.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, of course, banked on Walker's upside and ceiling in April, making him the No. 1 overall pick and firmly betting on his tools over that of Hutchinson's and Thibodeaux's.
Months later, most oddsmakers still have Hutchinson and Thibodeaux with higher expectations than Walker despite Walker being the first selected. Defensive Rookie of the Year odds from BetOnline in early May saw each land in the top three, but with Walker following his two fellow rookies.
- Aidan Hutchinson: 5/1
- Kayvon Thibodeaux: 11/2
- Travon Walker: 8/1
Then there is specific prop bets, which also have Hutchinson and Thibodeaux ahead of Walker. DraftKings Sportsbook has Hutchinson's sack over/under at 8.5, Thibodeaux's at 7.5 and Walker's at 6.5. Despite being the first player picked, most placing bets seem to believe that Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are more likely to produce as a rookie.
Simply put, Walker still has doubters after being made the top pick. The conventional thinking before he, Hutchinson or Thibodeaux ever plays a game is that the Jaguars made a mistake, even though this couldn't possibly be known for another several years.
While the "why" of this reality could be argued from a number of angles, what hasn't been discussed as much is this: could the national expectations placed on Walker actually work in his favor?
It is hard to think of another No. 1 overall pick with less national fanfare and momentum than Walker. The only other recent one that comes to mind are Jared Goff, the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft who was seen as a solid but unspectacular prospect by many, and Eric Fisher, the No. 1 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, a draft that was seen as one of the weakest in NFL history.
That is more or less due to the nature of the beast of the 2022 draft class, with most national publications and reporters tabbing Hutchinson as the top player in the class. Considering Walker recorded fewer than 10 sacks in college at Georgia and was never an All-American or All-Conference selection other than Freshman All-SEC in 2019, it isn't hard to understand why some were taken aback by his selection at No. 1.
And as a result, Walker doesn't have the fierce microscope placed on him that other No. 1 picks have had. The sheer fact that he was the first pick brings its own set of expectations, but Walker won't face the immediate pressure that Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Myles Garrett, or Jadeveon Clowney.
"I'm definitely prepared for it, the No. 1 pick. I have to say there's a lot of expectations behind that but it's just the game of football to me," Walker said after he was drafted.
"I'm just going to continue to do what I've been doing, giving my all to the game of football because that's something that I love to do, and I'm not making it more pressure on myself than it should be."
Whether right or wrong, more eyes will likely be on Hutchinson or Thibodeaux if they fail to produce in Year 1. While Walker seems like the complete opposite of a player who would let outside noise get to him, there is no question that lowered expectations for him from those outside of Jacksonville could benefit him.
Walker is expected by the Jaguars to make an impact and produce right away. They see him as someone who can create plays and cause disruption even as he develops as a rookie. But, whether right or wrong, Walker will be given time by the general public to develop.
This doesn't mean Walker or the Jaguars can afford for the rookie pass-rusher to fail to make an impact as a rookie, but expectations with Walker are far different than those for his fellow rookie pass-rushers. He will be given a chance to reach his potential because the general idea is that most assume he is still a project working to reach a high ceiling.
There will still be pressure. Pressure implied by Walker himself, who sets high standards for himself and who is determined to show doubters that he can thrive outside of Georgia's multiple defense. Pressure implied by the Jaguars' staff, who need Walker to make plays from Week 1 to Week 18.
But it is pressure the Jaguars believe he can handle.
"I think he’ll handle it extremely well," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said during rookie minicamp.
"But quite honestly, it’s my job too to protect him a little bit from some of the outside influences that could affect him and then just allow him to focus on his job. We’re talking two different positions too. We’re talking the quarterback and sort of the [face of the] franchise of the organization versus an outside linebacker and the questioning and line of questioning is going to be a little bit different. But I think Travon [Walker] is a mature individual. He’s young, but he’ll be well coached up and that’s our job to do that.”
Walker has high expectations. He was the No. 1 pick for a reason and that tag will always follow him and his Jaguars career. But he will be under less of a microscope than other players facing the same challenges, giving him a chance to develop over a long-term period that few No. 1 picks get.
